Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

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Record Hog Production Q1 2026; Wheat Crop Improves; Corn Planting to Increase

China's GDP grew 5% year over year in Q1 2026, according to a National Bureau of Statistics report that provided its invariably upbeat rundown of first quarter economic data. Primary sector GDP--which includes agriculture--grew 3.8%. In March 2026 the urban unemployment rate was reported to be 5.4% while the rate for rural migrants was 5.7%. The Bureau's Q1 2026 report focusing on the agricultural economy led off with a claim that the winter wheat crop has overcome the impacts of last Fall's heavy rains that seriously impeded planting of the crop. The Bureau's agricultural statistician claimed that the area planted in winter wheat is stable and the crop's condition has improved due to warm weather, adequate rainfall and soil moisture this Spring. The Bureau claimed that the crop has been bolstered by measures orders issued to local officials to fertilize wheat seedlings and farmers were encouraged by an increase in the minimum price for wheat (in fact, the minimu...

Foot and Mouth Disease Cover-Up

In a terse online report China acknowledged that a South African serotype of foot-and-mouth disease has entered the country for the first time. The report of 2 widely separated outbreaks occurring simultaneously is implausible, and emergency distribution of vaccines suggests a much wider spread. The inexplicable jump of the virus to China from halfway across the world, under-reporting of outbreaks, and silence from State media bear close similarity to African swine fever's entry to China 8 years ago. On March 28, 2026 China's agriculture ministry reported two outbreaks of the SAT1 (Southern Africa Type 1) serotype of foot and mouth disease in two remote locations: Yining County of Yili Prefecture in Xinjiang and in Gulang County of Gansu Provnce. The report said that 142 of 513 cattle at a market in Yining County were sickened by the disease. At a farm in Gulang County 77 of 5716 cattle were sickened. The report did not say when the outbreaks occurred. Both outbreaks were ...

Iran War Spikes Chemical & Fuel Prices in China, Fertilizer Prices Up Modestly

The Iran war has hit Chinese prices of chemicals and fuel hard, but most prices -- including farm prices and fertilizer -- have risen at a modest pace of 5% or less since the war began in late February. Pesticide prices have shot up in sync with the 30-to-40% increases in other chemical prices. The impact of the Iran war is hard to discern from China's official price reports, but they indicate impacts are concentrated on fuel. The March CPI was up 1% year-over-year, but it fell 0.7% between February and March. Consumer prices for energy used for transportation stood out from all other categories with an increase of 10% in March. Producer price deflation was reversed into modest inflation. The March PPI report showed ex-factory prices rose 0.5% in March after falling 0.9% in February. Producer prices for gasoline and natural gas stood out with a 15.8% increase in March, while producer prices for consumer items were down slightly. We can discern a more precise picture of the impac...

March Soybean Imports Seasonal Low; Down 3% y-o-y

China imported a seasonal low of 4 million metric tons of soybeans in March 2026, slightly higher than 3.5 mmt imported in March last year. Detailed data on origins of imports have not yet been released. As an earlier post noted, soybean supplies in China are relatively tight but imports are expected to surge higher in April and May as more Brazilian soybeans arrive. China Customs Administration reports. Imports in 2026 are very close to the volume imported a year ago. The cumulative January-March 2026 import total of 16.57 mmt is 3.1% less than the 17.1 mmt for the same period in 2025. China's imports of cereal grains in March totaled 3.3 mmt, up from 1.85 mmt a year earlier. Cumulative cereal grain imports for January-March of 8.6 mmt are 3 mmt more than the same period in 2025. Grain imports do not have the strong seasonal pattern displayed by soybean imports. Grain imports are not broken out by detailed categories yet. China Customs Administration reports.

China Soybean Supply Surge Expected in May

Brazil's exports of soybeans to China were 9.97 million metric tons during March 2026, while 4.5 mmt were exported to other destinations. Other top destinations included Spain (511,000 mt), Netherlands (427,000 mt), Turkey (487,000 mt), Mexico (416,000 mt), and Thailand (398,000 mt). Analysis of data from Brazil COMEX Stat database. Brazil is harvesting a record-large soybean crop, so exports are expected to be ahead of last year's pace. Exports were up slightly year-over-year in January & February, but during March 2026 exports to China were down 1.1 mmt from last year's March total. Meanwhile, exports to other destinations were up 1 mmt y-o-y. The drop in exports to China is consistent with reports of a slowdown in shipments due to stricter inspections by Brazilian authorities . The inspections were prompted by complaints about weed seeds, pesticide-coated seeds, and heat damage received from Chinese customs officials. It was reported in March that one major tr...

Chinese Leaders: Reduce Edible Oil, Eat More Beans and Dairy

The Chinese propaganda machine is pushing dietary change with a slogan: "Appropriately reduce oil and increase intake of legumes and dairy." State media have been running a story touting the health benefits of dietary guidelines for Chinese citizens published 4 years ago . The article/video features the Agriculture Minister's recitation of the slogan at last month's "two sessions" and advice from a Yunnan Province hospital physician on how to adjust eating habits. The article emphasized the health benefits of increasing intake of legumes and dairy while keeping total calories and fat intake in check. The guidelines recommend limiting edible oil intake to 25-to-30 g. per day, warning that the limits can be easily exceeded if one consumes excessive amounts of meat and fried foods. The Yunnan physician recommended avoiding deep-fried foods, cutting back on animal fats, and steaming, boiling, stewing, or quick-frying to reduce oil intake. She recommended using...