Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

U.S. and Chinese officials are discussing agricultural trade issues ahead of Xi Jinping's expected September 24 visit to Washington. China has committed to purchase 25 million metric tons of soybeans from the U.S. annually and $17 billion of other agricultural products, according to White House announcements following the May 2026  and October 2025 meetings between Xi and Trump. It has been reported that the two sides are discussing tariff cuts for agricultural products. Previously, the idea of a bilateral board of trade to manage imports and exports has been floated. Taking stock of the status of U.S. agricultural exports to China so far in 2026 indicates China has progressed well on its soybean purchase commitment, but exports of non-soybean farm goods are a long way from the $17 billion target--even if prorated this year.  China apparently met its commitment to purchase at least 12 mmt of U.S. soybeans by early July. The target was originally supposed to be met in December...

You probably missed China's latest exercise of food power involving shrimp from Ecuador. President Daniel Noboa went to China in August and was rewarded with restoration of 8 Ecuadorian shrimp exporters that China had suspended earlier. The events leading up to Noboa's visit outline an emerging pattern: China creates a large export market for a trading partner, sets novel approval procedures or standards to manage the flow of imports, and China rejects products or suspends exporters when Chinese leaders want to gain power over their trading partner.  China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs highlighted Ecuador President Neboa's visit to China  August 2026. Over the past decade shrimp quietly became Ecuador's top export after petroleum, and China accounted for about half of the South American country's shrimp exports in 2025. China's annual imports of shrimp from Ecuador exceeded $3 billion during 2022-25, up spectacularly from about $100,000 in 2017.  China custo...

The food component of China's August 2026 CPI was down 1.4% year-over-year while the nonfood component was up 1.2%. The overall CPI was up 0.8% y-o-y and up 0.4% from the previous month. China's consumer prices were down year over year for most sub-categories of food, led by pork which was down 11.8%. Grains, edible oils, vegetables, and fish prices were all down from a year ago. Beef and mutton prices were up 5.3% and 6.3%, respectively, from a year ago. Egg prices were depressed last year, but they have rebounded sharply this year. August egg prices were up 15% from a year ago. China's Producer Price Index, likewise showed a 3.8% increase overall, but the PPI for agricultural processing was down 1.7%, the PPI for food manufacturing was down 1.2%, and the PPI for alcohol and beverages was down 5.3% year-over-year in August.  A commentary by a National Bureau of Statistics statistician noted that fluctuations in international prices and a seasonal change in food prices ha...

China's July 2026 animal feed production totaled 29.89 million metric tons (mmt), up 2.6% from a year ago, according to a monthly report from the China Feed Industry Association . Feed output has been up year-over-year in 6 of 7 months this year. Cumulative feed production for January-July 2026 is 198.37 mmt, an increase of 11.56 mmt or 6.2% from the same period in 2025. Compiled from monthly China Feed Industry Association reports. Nearly all of the July feed output was composed of formulated feed (28.17 mmt), which increased 3% year-over-year. July production of feed concentrate (990,000 metric tons) was down 4.3% and production of additives and premix (560,000 metric tons) was down 9.7% year-over-year. The percentage of corn used in production of animal feed was just 30.5% in July. The proportion of corn use tends to fall seasonally during summer months before the new corn crop is harvested and when wheat is plentiful following the May-June harvest. July's 30.5% corn share w...

China imported 12.14 million metric tons of soybeans in August 2026 as monthly soybean imports continued at almost exactly the same pace as last year. The August volume is slightly behind the year-earlier total of 12.28 mmt.  China customs data. Cumulative soybean imports for January-August 2026 totaled 73.77 million metric tons, slightly ahead of the 73.33 mmt imported during the same period last year.  Brazil's soybean exports began their seasonal drop with 7 mmt exported to China in August, according to preliminary data from Brazil's Comex. That was down from 7.93 mmt exported to China in August 2025. China was the destination for 72% of Brazilian soybeans exported in August. Cumulative Brazilian exports to China for January-August total 64.7 mmt versus 65.85 mmt during the same months in 2025.  Preliminary data from Brazil's Comex. Brazil's exports of soybeans to other destinations are ahead of last year's. Brazil exported 2.8 mmt to non-China destinations in Au...

Hog prices have been below break-even for most of this year, and China's hog industry needs to shed production capacity to match supply with shrinking demand. Hog prices slid from over RMB20 per kg in August 2024 to RMB10 from April-June 2026. Production capacity appears to have started shrinking this year, but the path to a smaller hog industry in China is still unclear. There was a modest rebound in hog prices during the summer months, but it appears to be a seasonal blip. Market commentaries are not optimistic about a sustained recovery in prices. A counter in a Suzhou supermarket selling cheap pork from national reserves For the last 2 years Chinese government officials have been calling on giant hog producing companies to cut back on production. Investor reports for H1 2026 released in recent weeks appear to show that 8 big farming companies reducing their sow inventories by a combined 723,800 head. That amounts to 28% of the year-over-year reduction in national sow numbers of...