Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

Chinese authorities are aggressively rolling out their rice price support policy as prices plummet under harvest pressure. While authorities are stockpiling surplus domestic rice, the high Chinese price is attracting a surge of imported rice from India and Southeast Asia. Meanwhile China is dumping cheap rice in Africa. The price support program, a centerpiece of China's "food security" policy, ultimately results in confusion and fills markets with low-quality products--the opposite of Xi Jinping's exhortation to raise the quality of Chinese products. As the Fall harvest shifts into high gear, China's communist party "Red Net" news site explained this week that an aggressive roll-out of the Chinese rice price support program is needed to stem a 3-year 11.9% decline in rice prices, especially for long-grain (indica) rice harvested in the Fall.  Between October 14 and 20 six of China's rice-producing provinces launched government-backed price support ...

China's swine producers have cut their sow herd 10.7% over the past year, but pork output during Q3 was still up from a year ago. Downward pressure on pork prices persisted. Producer prices for hogs were down nearly 20% from a year ago. China's inventory of productive sows was 36.02 million head at the end of Q3 2026, down 10.7% from a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics . This is 4% below the agriculture ministry's target of 37.5 million. The sow herd is 10 million head smaller than its peak in 2021, and it has not been this small since 2020 during the recovery from the African swine fever epidemic.  The overall swine inventory was down 2.6% from a year ago, reaching 425.33 million at the end of Q3. China National Bureau of Statistics The reduction in sows has not yet led to a reduction in China's pork output. Calculations using the Bureau's data releases show that pork output has exceeded year-earlier output in each of the first three quar...

China imported 11.88 million metric tons of soybeans in September 2026, bringing the 2025/26 October-September market year total to 111.7 mmt. That's a 2.3-mmt increase from the previous year's 109.4 mmt.  Many commentators in China suggest that soybean imports are at or near their peak, but there is no sign of a peak yet. Data from China's customs database show increases in imports for each of the last four years, from 89.7 mmt in 2021/22 to 111.7 mmt in 2025/26. USDA's PS&D has different totals for several years, including a slightly higher estimate of 113 mmt for 2025/26, and USDA projects another increase to 115 mmt in 2026/27.  Orange line calculated from Chinese customs database. China's reliance on imported soybeans has remained stubbornly high at 83-to-84% each year since 2018/19 despite a strong push from Chinese authorities to reduce reliance on imported soybeans. With 20.9 mmt produced and 111.7 mmt imported during the 2025/26 market year, China impor...

China's rising rejections of imported food were noted by this blog in 2025. This year rejections have risen again, reflecting mainly the rising appetite for seafood and meat. Detection of GMOs from unexpected sources is another interesting theme. In August 2026, Chinese customs rejected 753 imported food shipments with a volume of 10,795 metric tons. The number of shipments was the largest rejected since the customs administration took over border inspections in 2018 and the volume was the second largest after May's 15,594 metric tons.  Compiled from China Customs Administration web site. While rejections fluctuate from month to month, they have been clearly on a rising trend since 2023. A year ago, in August 2025, inspectors rejected 617 shipments with a volume of 8122 metric tons.  China has rejected food shipments from more than 80 countries in the first 8 months of 2026. As discussed here last month, rejections of shrimp from Ecuador stand out as this year's top rejec...

Corn market bulls in the U.S. were disappointed that China made no commitment to buy American corn at the September summit meeting in Washington. Corn was the chief contributor to China's Phase One purchases in 2020-22, and many thought China would buy corn to fulfill its $17-billion purchase commitment this year. However, no agricultural commitment emerged from the meeting , just a pair of $30-billion spreadsheets and a promise to keep talking. China's corn market is actually in a fragile state. Demand is weak, feed mills are buying cautiously, and Chinese corn prices are sinking as the new crop comes on the market. Modest volumes of imported sorghum and barley are already adding downward pressure on corn prices. The threat of plunging prices for the country's largest grain crop could deter China's negotiators from agreeing to purchases of American corn. A September 29 article in the obscure State-run  Grain & Oil News  discussed weakness in the corn market as the ...