Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

Self-sufficiency in wheat and rice is a pillar of China's food security policy, but officials revealed last week that the country produces 140 million metric tons of wheat and only consumes 65% of it as food. Much of China's wheat is fed to animals or stored in warehouses for as long as 9 years. With surpluses even in years of poor yields, authorities are propping up prices to convince farmers to keep growing surplus wheat. Last week Chinese propaganda outlets assured farmers that they will get a good price for their wheat as the harvest kicks into gear this month. Official news sites and TV broadcasts reported variations of the same upbeat prediction of a good wheat harvest, stable prices, and ample reserves given at a National Administration of Food and Commodity Reserves news conference on May 14, 2026. Such announcements are common ahead of the grain harvest, but the amount of detail offered and the dozens of outlets broadcasting the "news" suggests that the regim...

China committed to buy $17 billion of non-soybean U.S. agricultural products over the next 3 years according to a Fact Sheet released by the White House  summarizing commitments made during Trumps visit to Beijing last week. These purchases are in addition to China's soybean purchase commitments made in October 2025 to buy 12 million metric tons (mmt) of soybeans in 2025 and 25 mmt annually during 2026-28. China renewed expired approvals for 400 U.S. beef exporting facilities and agreed to resume imports of poultry from U.S. States free of highly pathogenic avian influenza.  The recent history of U.S. agricultural exports to China shows that the $17 billion value of non-soybean exports was exceeded during 2021 and 2022, when the "Phase One" agreement was in force and high commodity prices inflated the value of farm trade (but China did not meet the Phase One targets). Non-soy ag exports have fallen short of $17 billion since 2023. Last year, during the 2025 trad...

Last month this blog reported hockey-stick Chinese price increases for certain industrial commodities  since the Iran war began in late February that were as high as 40-to-77% for plastics, fuel, and chemicals. Gasoline and diesel prices eased somewhat during April, but elevated prices for sulphuric acid, liquified natural gas, and lithium persisted into the first 10 days of May. The spike in polyester prices has stimulated a rebound in cotton use, but agricultural prices are mostly insulated from the crisis so far. China's April 2026 PPI  shows a modest trend of rising prices that seems to have turned around the deflationary tendency that plagued the Chinese economy last year. The average price for industrial raw materials rose 1.2% in March 2026 and 2.1% in April. These were the first month-on-month increases exceeding 1% in the past year. A year ago at this time the raw material price index was declining--it was down -0.7% between March and April 2025.  An update of pr...

China has fired two agriculture ministers over the past two years, one of whom got a death sentence. This appears to be the routine discovery of bad apples in the system, but it reflects the desperation of Chinese leaders to restore confidence in the Party's leadership.  Much like a religious revival, new Agriculture Minister Zhang Zhu's first meeting with employees two days after being appointed urged communist party members to "forge their collective will and soul," translate their beliefs into collective actions, promptly correct any deviations, and address malpractices and corruption issues that directly affect the public, demonstrating "unwavering loyalty to the Party." This is the latest in a series of meetings held this year to lecture communist cadres about studying Xi Jinping thought, giving up corruption and lax work attitudes, and pursuing their jobs with sincerity. These meetings reflect the Party's worries that its hold on the countryside i...

China imported 8.5 million metric tons of soybeans during April 2026, more than double the 4 mmt imported during March. The April total was 2.4 mmt ahead of imports in April last year. Detailed April import data have not been released yet. During March 2026 China imported 1.85 mmt from the U.S., 1.4 mmt from Brazil, 400,000 mt from Argentina, and 247,500 mt from Russia. The volume arriving from Brazil is set to balloon in coming months.  China customs administration. Brazil's exports to China have been ramping up as this year's soybean crop--estimated by USDA to be a record-breaking 180 mmt--makes its way to ports. Brazil's soybean exports to China were a record-high 11.58 mmt during April. The April volume was up about 1.6 mmt from March. Some March shipments may have been delayed to April by stringent port inspections that caused a backlog of cargoes--the inspection issue at both Brazilian and Chinese ports apparently has been cleared up. Exports to China for 2026 match l...

China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has massively overstated income growth for years. In 2025, NBS reported that China's GDP and household income both grew 5.0%. Another obscure data item reported by the Bureau showed that the monthly earnings of employed rural people grew just 2.3%, less than half the growth in GDP. This number, buried in an obscure report on rural migrants , is also overstated and ignores unpaid wages, one of the chief drivers of protests and sabotage in China last year. Drilling down into China's household income data report to ensure an apples-to-apples comparison shows an even bigger discrepancy. Rural household income from wages grew 6.1% in 2025. That's more than double the 2.3% growth in earnings by rural migrants. (Urban households' wage income grew 4.1%.) China's National Bureau of Statistics. The history of monthly earnings from the rural migrant survey shows that growth in wages for rural migrants--who staff the construction...