Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

China imported 11.88 million metric tons of soybeans in September 2026, bringing the 2025/26 October-September market year total to 111.7 mmt. That's a 2.3-mmt increase from the previous year's 109.4 mmt.  Many commentators in China suggest that soybean imports are at or near their peak, but there is no sign of a peak yet. Data from China's customs database show increases in imports for each of the last four years, from 89.7 mmt in 2021/22 to 111.7 mmt in 2025/26. USDA's PS&D has different totals for several years, including a slightly higher estimate of 113 mmt for 2025/26, and USDA projects another increase to 115 mmt in 2026/27.  Orange line calculated from Chinese customs database. China's reliance on imported soybeans has remained stubbornly high at 83-to-84% each year since 2018/19 despite a strong push from Chinese authorities to reduce reliance on imported soybeans. With 20.9 mmt produced and 111.7 mmt imported during the 2025/26 market year, China impor...

China's rising rejections of imported food were noted by this blog in 2025. This year rejections have risen again, reflecting mainly the rising appetite for seafood and meat. Detection of GMOs from unexpected sources is another interesting theme. In August 2026, Chinese customs rejected 753 imported food shipments with a volume of 10,795 metric tons. The number of shipments was the largest rejected since the customs administration took over border inspections in 2018 and the volume was the second largest after May's 15,594 metric tons.  Compiled from China Customs Administration web site. While rejections fluctuate from month to month, they have been clearly on a rising trend since 2023. A year ago, in August 2025, inspectors rejected 617 shipments with a volume of 8122 metric tons.  China has rejected food shipments from more than 80 countries in the first 8 months of 2026. As discussed here last month, rejections of shrimp from Ecuador stand out as this year's top rejec...

Corn market bulls in the U.S. were disappointed that China made no commitment to buy American corn at the September summit meeting in Washington. Corn was the chief contributor to China's Phase One purchases in 2020-22, and many thought China would buy corn to fulfill its $17-billion purchase commitment this year. However, no agricultural commitment emerged from the meeting , just a pair of $30-billion spreadsheets and a promise to keep talking. China's corn market is actually in a fragile state. Demand is weak, feed mills are buying cautiously, and Chinese corn prices are sinking as the new crop comes on the market. Modest volumes of imported sorghum and barley are already adding downward pressure on corn prices. The threat of plunging prices for the country's largest grain crop could deter China's negotiators from agreeing to purchases of American corn. A September 29 article in the obscure State-run  Grain & Oil News  discussed weakness in the corn market as the ...

This week a Chinese State TV program exposed live-streamers who promoted bottles of "walnut oil" that were actually filled with soybean oil. China's latest food safety scandal highlights how pervasive fraud undermines the strategy of using high-quality to differentiate food products and earn premium prices. The case also incidentally highlights how the low price of soybeans perpetuates their oversize role in China's food industry.  Chinese State TV broadcast investigates adulteration of walnut oil. The "Yikoufu" brand of walnut oil was advertised by live-streamers on China's WeChat platform, purportedly sold by "People's Supply and Marketing Cooperative – Guangping Supply and Marketing Cooperative Selection." Walnut oil is said to be a favorite of Chinese consumers due to its health benefits as rich in unsaturated fatty acids. Live streamers promoting the Yikoufu walnut oil hyped the product in a "public-service agricultural support e...

Prospects for U.S. agricultural exports to China are still murky after Chinese negotiators dropped a 1619-item list of items that will be "considered" for tariff reductions after last week's Trump-Xi summit. The list was released by the White House as part of a plan for establishing a U.S.-China Board of Trade composed of Chinese and U.S. officials that aims to "optimize" trade between the two countries. Each country released a "30-for-30" list of products that the U.S. and China will consider for reductions of country-specific tariffs. Each list apparently is composed of commodities that had $30 billion in trade in 2024, the year before the current trade war began.  A Chinese official explained that the "30 billion-for-30 billion" framework was agreed by Chinese Ministry of Commerce and U.S. Trade Representative officials at their May meeting. He said tariffs will be lowered to the Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) rate about 90% of the items, and...