Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

China's customs inspectors discovered genetically modified material in shipments of Russia's purportedly non-GMO rapeseed oil this year. Russian regulators scrambled to impose new requirements on their producers to satisfy Chinese inspectors, but the volume of trade shrank precipitously. Chinese markets were impacted as declining imports of Russian rapeseed oil led to a large price premium for non-GMO rapeseed oil in China.  In February of 2026 Chinese customs inspectors rejected rapeseed oil shipments from 3 Russian suppliers totaling 510 metric tons after they detected genetically modified material in the oil. Chinese officials raised concerns with Russian counterparts, but rejections continued rising in months that followed, peaking at 3600 metric tons in April and 4452 metric tons in May. The surge of rejections followed a tightening of inspections  this year prompted by rejections of Kazakh and Belarus rapeseed oil last year.  Compiled from China Customs Ad...

China's beef import quotas have begun to bite now that Brazil--its largest supplier--has filled its "safeguard" quota. Additional imports beyond the quota are subject to an additional 55% tariff, according to China's beef safeguard adopted in January 2026. China's beef output has been slow to rebound--production in the first three quarters of 2026 was down year-over-year. Chinese beef prices are up. In September 2026, China's beef imports totaled 143,000 metric tons, down from 316,000 metric tons a year earlier. China's cumulative beef imports for the first nine months of 2026 total 2.1 million metric tons, down 26,000 metric tons year-over-year.  China customs data. Customs data show that Brazil's imports hit their import quota in August, but China announced officially that Brazil hit its quota in September. Australian imports had hit their quota in June. Imports from both countries continued at a slower pace after their quotas filled. Brazil supplied...

Chinese authorities are aggressively rolling out their rice price support policy as prices plummet under harvest pressure. While authorities are stockpiling surplus domestic rice, the high Chinese price is attracting a surge of imported rice from India and Southeast Asia. Meanwhile China is dumping cheap rice in Africa. The price support program, a centerpiece of China's "food security" policy, ultimately results in confusion and fills markets with low-quality products--the opposite of Xi Jinping's exhortation to raise the quality of Chinese products. As the Fall harvest shifts into high gear, China's communist party "Red Net" news site explained this week that an aggressive roll-out of the Chinese rice price support program is needed to stem a 3-year 11.9% decline in rice prices, especially for long-grain (indica) rice harvested in the Fall.  Between October 14 and 20 six of China's rice-producing provinces launched government-backed price support ...

China's swine producers have cut their sow herd 10.7% over the past year, but pork output during Q3 was still up from a year ago. Downward pressure on pork prices persisted. Producer prices for hogs were down nearly 20% from a year ago. China's inventory of productive sows was 36.02 million head at the end of Q3 2026, down 10.7% from a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics . This is 4% below the agriculture ministry's target of 37.5 million. The sow herd is 10 million head smaller than its peak in 2021, and it has not been this small since 2020 during the recovery from the African swine fever epidemic.  The overall swine inventory was down 2.6% from a year ago, reaching 425.33 million at the end of Q3. China National Bureau of Statistics The reduction in sows has not yet led to a reduction in China's pork output. Calculations using the Bureau's data releases show that pork output has exceeded year-earlier output in each of the first three quar...

China imported 11.88 million metric tons of soybeans in September 2026, bringing the 2025/26 October-September market year total to 111.7 mmt. That's a 2.3-mmt increase from the previous year's 109.4 mmt.  Many commentators in China suggest that soybean imports are at or near their peak, but there is no sign of a peak yet. Data from China's customs database show increases in imports for each of the last four years, from 89.7 mmt in 2021/22 to 111.7 mmt in 2025/26. USDA's PS&D has different totals for several years, including a slightly higher estimate of 113 mmt for 2025/26, and USDA projects another increase to 115 mmt in 2026/27.  Orange line calculated from Chinese customs database. China's reliance on imported soybeans has remained stubbornly high at 83-to-84% each year since 2018/19 despite a strong push from Chinese authorities to reduce reliance on imported soybeans. With 20.9 mmt produced and 111.7 mmt imported during the 2025/26 market year, China impor...