Brazil's exports of soybeans to China were 9.97 million metric tons during March 2026, while 4.5 mmt were exported to other destinations. Other top destinations included Spain (511,000 mt), Netherlands (427,000 mt), Turkey (487,000 mt), Mexico (416,000 mt), and Thailand (398,000 mt).
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| Analysis of data from Brazil COMEX Stat database. |
Brazil is harvesting a record-large soybean crop, so exports are expected to be ahead of last year's pace. Exports were up slightly year-over-year in January & February, but during March 2026 exports to China were down 1.1 mmt from last year's March total. Meanwhile, exports to other destinations were up 1 mmt y-o-y.
The drop in exports to China is consistent with reports of a slowdown in shipments due to stricter inspections by Brazilian authorities. The inspections were prompted by complaints about weed seeds, pesticide-coated seeds, and heat damage received from Chinese customs officials. It was reported in March that one major trading company suspended purchases of Brazilian soybeans for shipment to China and 20 or more vessels were waiting at ports in Brazil for inspections and approvals to be granted. Chinese news reports on this incident featured recommendations that exporters consider diverting soybeans to non-China markets.
On the Chinese side, it is being reported that inspections of soybeans arriving at ports in China will also be extended from the usual 1 week to 20-25 days.
China's sudden concern about foreign material in Brazilian soybeans may be a move calculated to head off a serious case of excess supply in the Chinese market during Summer months.
A report by Chinese futures market analysts said that soybean oil and meal supplies are currently tight due to delays in arrival of Brazilian soybeans and low operating rates of crushing plants, but prices are expected to fall with the arrival of 10-to-11 mmt of soybeans monthly beginning in May.
Shipments from the U.S. and Brazil destined for China have grown from a combined 4 mmt in January to 12 mmt in March, consistent with a big increase in soybean arrivals on the horizon. It takes 30-40 days in transit to China plus 2-3 weeks for inspection, so March shipments can be expected to enter the Chinese market in May.
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| Brazil exports and USDA export inspections. |
Many of the U.S.-origin beans are likely to go into Chinese Government warehouses to be stored in reserves, but the supply of beans in the Chinese market is nevertheless expected to surge in coming months. A soybean meal market report estimated March soybean arrivals in China around 5.5 mmt, rising to 9.5 mmt in April and 11 mmt or more in May. This volume is likely to keep downward pressure on meal and oil prices and crushing margins in China. The report said crushers have raised their production to about 60% of capacity; landed prices of soybeans are RMB 3,600-3,700; and crushing margins are hovering around break-even levels.
The futures analysts said there is limited potential for growth in China's soybean oil consumption. They said human consumption of soybean oil at retail has peaked due to factors such as aging of the population and more health-conscious eating habits. They said there has been substitution of soybean oil for palm oil prompted by the inversion of price ratios for the two oils, but that substitution has peaked. The futures analysts pointed to uncertainties about Indonesia's biodiesel policy adding uncertainty to the oils market.
With the domestic market largely saturated and Chinese oil prices internationally competitive, the futures analysts commented that exports have become the one of the few market outlets with promising growth prospects. China became a net exporter of soybean oil last year, and the analysts said that processors have already booked soy oil export sales for May-July this year. They noted that import margins in India--the top market--have turned negative, slowing down export sales business.
While soybean oil prices were on the upswing during March and April along with prices of petroleum and palm oil during the Iran war, those prices could be headed back down with the cease fire and prospects of rising crush. The lows hit by soybean oil prices last year coincided with the record-breaking peak in arrivals of Brazilian soybeans during May-July 2025. The May soybean oil futures price on China's Dalian exchange peaked around 8760 yuan per ton in late March and is now down to about 8500 yuan.
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| China National Food and Commodity Reserves Administration. |
The soybean meal market is also headed for lower prices as crush volume and supply ramp up. The meal price peaked in March, but it is now falling. The May futures price for soybean meal on the Dalian exchange peaked at about 3,100 yuan in early March and has now fallen to about 2,850 yuan. That's close to the level hit by China's spot price in July last year -- the lowest in years -- that came during last year's peak arrival of Brazilian soybeans.
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| Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, raw material prices. |
The futures analysts commented that soybean meal has firm demand as it is still the primary source of protein in Chinese animal diets due to its price and the lack of good substitutes. They said even low-protein feed rations include 11-to-12% soybean meal. However, hog producers are under pressure to cut back on animal numbers -- and therefore on soybean meal use -- after hog prices collapsed to levels far below break-even this year. The futures analysts anticipated no major rally in the hog market in 2026.
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