In a terse online report China acknowledged that a South African serotype of foot-and-mouth disease has entered the country for the first time. The report of 2 widely separated outbreaks occurring simultaneously is implausible, and emergency distribution of vaccines suggests a much wider spread. The inexplicable jump of the virus to China from halfway across the world, under-reporting of outbreaks, and silence from State media bear close similarity to African swine fever's entry to China 8 years ago.
On March 28, 2026 China's agriculture ministry reported two outbreaks of the SAT1 (Southern Africa Type 1) serotype of foot and mouth disease in two remote locations: Yining County of Yili Prefecture in Xinjiang and in Gulang County of Gansu Provnce. The report said that 142 of 513 cattle at a market in Yining County were sickened by the disease. At a farm in Gulang County 77 of 5716 cattle were sickened. The report did not say when the outbreaks occurred. Both outbreaks were reported in the same terse posting on March 28, despite being separated by about 2,400 km.
These are the first outbreaks of the SAT1 serotype in China, although type-A and O serotypes have been in China for decades. Current vaccines do not protect against the SAT1 serotype, but 1 Chinese company has been given emergency authorization to produce an SAT1 vaccine.
Farm Journal this week traced the spread of the SAT1 FMD serotype from Eastern and Southern Africa (where it is endemic) into North Africa, the Middle East and West Asia last year. There have been outbreaks in Cyprus (February 26) and Greece and Israel (March 2026), but the article did not mention the China outbreaks.
It is implausible that isolated disease outbreaks in China could occur simultaneously at geographically separate locations. Xinjiang's Yili Prefecture is in far-West China near the Kazakhstan border, and Gansu's Gulang County is about 2,400 km in a straight line southeast of Yili. The disease could not have jumped from Africa and the Middle East to these 2 locations without spreading to other farms.
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| Locations of SAT1 foot and mouth disease outbreaks in China reported March 28, 2026. |
The virus was likely spread to China by movement of contaminated humans or equipment between Africa or the Middle East and China. There have been no outbreaks in countries bordering China. The closest outbreaks to China were in Azerbaijan and Iran in October 2025.
Besides the obligatory posting on the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs website where domestic and international disease outbreaks are posted, there is no official news or warning being issued publicly to farms or veterinarians on web sites of the agriculture ministry, veterinary organizations or the animal husbandry station.
The news has been reported by non-State Chinese news media that cater to finance and business audiences.
On April 9, Caixin reported the Xinjiang and Gansu outbreaks and reported that two SAT1 vaccines had been given emergency approval and were already being distributed to farmers in Gansu, neighboring Ningxia Province, and in Shandong Province, a major beef producing region on China's East coast 1,500 km east of Gansu.
On April 15, a financial news outlet called the SAT1 outbreak a "black swan event", speculated that the disease could affect the beef industry -- and possibly hogs and dairy. The article reported that one company received authorization to manufacture inactivated vaccines for SAT1 on April 5 and made recommendations for investment in certain vaccine manufacturers and dairy companies.
The spread of this African animal virus to China is very similar to the appearance of African swine fever in China in 2018. ASF was also endemic to Central and Southern Africa and had spread to Eastern Europe and Western Russia. How ASF spread to China was never explained. My USDA report showed that Chinese officials had been investigating the spread of ASF across northeastern China for several months before the first official report of an outbreak in Liaoning Province was made in August 2018. Only a small fraction of the outbreaks were reported, and there were implausible geographically separated outbreaks that led to inaccurate epidemiological assessments. ASF subsequently spread across China's borders to most of its neighbors. China still has African swine fever and still does not have a commercially available ASF vaccine.
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