Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

The food component of China's CPI for September 2025 was down -4.4% from a year ago, while the nonfood component was up 0.7%, according to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics . The overall CPI was down -0.3% from a year ago. Prices were down from a year ago for most food categories. Pork (-17%), vegetables (-13.7%), and eggs (-11.9%) stood out with the largest year-over-year declines in price. Fresh fruit (-4.2%), edible oils and milk (both -1.4%) and grains (-0.7%) were also down year-over-year.  While food prices in September were down from a year ago, prices were up 0.7% from the previous month (August). Vegetables, eggs, and fruit were up from the previous month. The Food CPI is cyclical. This month's year-over-year declines reflect a reversal of increases that occurred a year ago, especially for pork and vegetables. A year ago, China's Food CPI was up +3.3% in September 2024, and it was down -3.2% in September 2023. Pork, in particular, remains highly cyclica...

 China's November Consumer Price Index was up 0.2 percent. The food component was up 0.9 percent, but that number hides a lot of big price declines for agricultural goods further up the supply chain. The table below compares year-on-year changes in select food categories from the November CPI report with year-on-year price changes calculated from several other November price data reports from China.  For example, the CPI reported a 1.1 percent decline, but other data sources reported 18 and 19-percent declines for wheat, a 17 percent decline for flour, and price declines of as much as 4-to-6 percent for rice.  Beef prices are down 13.5 percent in the CPI and down 18.3 percent in the Ministry of Agriculture's wholesale price report. Milk prices are down 1.4 percent from last year in the CPI, but raw milk is down 15.2 percent according to the agriculture ministry's wholesale price data. Apples and potatoes are down about 10 percent from last year.  The main components ...