China's 2024 Ag Imports Shrank in Value

China's agricultural imports declined 7.9 percent during 2024 to reach $215 billion, according to data posted on the customs administration website. The 2024 value was lower than each of the 3 preceding years. Agricultural exports were up 4.1 percent to reach $103 billion.

Source: Data from China Customs Administration December reports.

The top two agricultural import categories by value both declined. Soybeans ($52.75 billion in 2024) fell 10.9 percent, and meat ($23.38 billion) fell 15.1 percent. Cereal grain imports ($15 billion) were down 28 percent and fish & shellfish imports ($18.5 billion) were down 6.2 percent. Edible oils imports ($10.6 billion) were down 17.8 percent. Fruit, rubber, cotton and wool and beverage imports were up for the year.

The decline in value of imports partly reflected a decline in prices. Customs reported that the volume of soybean imports for calendar year 2024 reached a record 105 million metric tons, up 5.6 million metric tons from the previous year according to the customs report. The volume of several other import categories declined less than their value. Imports of cereal grains reached 50.19 million metric tons, 8.9-mmt less than the previous year. Meat imports totaled 6.7 million metric tons, down 9.7 percent from the previous year.

The volume of China's corn imports was down 13.5 mmt, nearly cut in half from 2024, while wheat and rice imports were down less than 1 mmt each. Barley and sorghum imports were up from the previous year. Imports of palm oil were down 1.5 mmt and imports of soybean oil and rapeseed oil posted smaller declines. Beef imports were up 140,000 metric tons, but imports of other types of meat were all down from the previous year. Imports of fish and dairy were also down. 

A year ago China's customs data was apparently doctored to make the soybean import total come in just under 100 mmt for 2023. There seems to have been no such shenanigans this year. China Grain Net's analysis of the 2024 trade numbers acknowledged that soybean imports had broken through 100 mmt and commented that soybean imports fulfill demands of the common people in view of China's land resource limits and pressure on environmental resources. China Grain Net went on to acknowledge that reliance on imports challenges China's national food security "...in the current context of intensified competition among major powers and increasing uncertainty in the external environment."

Calculations based on the customs data and production of domestic soybeans show soybean imports constituted 83.6 percent of China's soybean supply in 2024. Similar calculations show 7.1 percent import reliance for cereal grains and 6.5 percent import reliance for meat. 

Shrinking agricultural import values present a picture of weak consumer demand and economic deflation that present a more serious concern for China's rural economy. China Grain Net commented, "...under the condition of weak domestic grain demand, imports of low-priced grain from abroad may increase supply pressure, drag down grain prices and affect farmers' income from grain production."

The National Bureau of Statistics reported sharp declines in producer prices for grains and oilseeds for Q4 2024 (corresponding to the fall harvest season). Wheat prices were down 11 percent, corn prices were down 17.7 percent, rice was down 4.6 percent, and oilseed prices were down 3.9 percent from a year earlier. Cattle price plummeted 22.7 percent, sheep prices were down 9 percent, and poultry prices were down 2.3 percent. Hog prices were up 12.9 percent from a year ago, but the hog industry downsized by cutting slaughter 3.3 percent.

Preventing rural areas from relapsing into poverty was one of the watchwords for communist party officials stressed in last year's "Document No. 1" as well as the December 2024 rural work meeting. Officially, primary sector (agricultural) GDP grew 3.5 percent in 2024, falling behind the overall GDP growth rate of 5 percent and weaker than growth in manufacturing and service sectors. Fixed asset investment for the primary sector was up only 2.6 percent, despite much publicity about building "high standard fields." 

The National Bureau of Statistics reported that nearly 300 million rural people had non-farm employment during 2024, up 2.2 million (0.7 percent) from the previous year. The increase seems implausible given the contraction in construction and service sectors--two top employers of rural migrants. However, the increases of last two years have been among the slowest ever. Employment in rural areas grew only 0.1 percent in 2024 after declining 2.8 percent the previous year, suggesting an especially weak rural economy. 

Source: Calculated from China National Bureau of Statistics.

The dollar-value of average monthly nonfarm wages earned by rural people has been stagnant for four years as modest gains in wages are offset by depreciation of the Chinese currency against the dollar.

Source: Calculated from China National Bureau of Statistics data.