Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

China imported 13.55 million metric tons of soybeans in June 2026. It was the second-largest monthly total ever, reflecting the peak shipping month for Brazilian soybeans two months earlier and the arrival of beans that had been delayed by stringent inspections earlier in the year. Imports of U.S. soybeans during June reflect the arrival of beans purchased in fulfillment of China's purchase commitment made at last October's summit. China paid a $20-per-ton premium for U.S. soybeans versus Brazilian beans during June. China customs data. Imports from Brazil totaled 12.08 mmt during June and imports from the U.S. totaled 1.27 mmt, while Canada supplied 33,604 metric tons, Russia supplied 63,734 metric tons, Ukraine supplied 5,357 metric tons, and smaller quantities came from Benin and Ethiopia.  China has imported a cumulative 34.75 mmt of soybeans from Brazil in the first 6 months of 2026, up from 31.86 mmt a year earlier. Cumulative imports from the U.S. are 9.31 mmt versus 16....

Chinese news media signaled that a revival of agricultural trade with the United States is coming. Soybean purchases by state-owned companies have begun, immediately driving up soybean prices in Chicago. Chinese officials wary of downward pressure on domestic prices will have to carefully consider how broader purchases of U.S. commodities could impact their own fragile markets in China. On July 2, 2026 Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesman He Yadong told a press conference that China and the U.S. have agreed in principle to include agricultural products in negotiations for reciprocal tariff reductions. He said enterprises will conduct trade independently based on market principles, actual demand, and market conditions. China is willing to work with the U.S. to create favorable condition for bilateral agricultural trade, the spokesman said.  While this response conveyed no specifics, it contrasts with a November 13, 2025 press conference where the same spokesman refused to co...

China's October 2025 commitment to buy U.S. soybeans has bifurcated the Chinese soybean trade. Beijing-based state-owned companies have been buying U.S. soybeans to fulfill China's purchase commitment while crushers in the provinces have been buying from Brazil and Argentina. A stark contrast in the regional breakdown of Chinese soybeans importers this year suggests that state-owned companies are carrying out the purchases of U.S. soybeans.  As we showed in a recent post , China has purchased nearly all the 12 mmt of U.S. soybeans promised in October 2025, and 8.3 million metric tons of those U.S. soybeans have arrived in China as of May 2026. Customs data shows all 8.3 mmt of those U.S. soybeans were imported by companies headquartered in Beijing. The headquarters of state-owned giants COFCO and Sinograin are in Beijing, but there is little or no soybean processing capacity there. No U.S. soybeans were imported by companies in other provinces.  Imports in million metric tons ...

On June 18, USDA announced sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans to China--the first for the 2026/27 crop year. As the market begins to watch progress on China's 25-mmt purchase commitment for 2026, let's review how China met its commitment to purchase 12 million metric tons of soybeans during 2025. The U.S. began announcing tariffs on Chinese goods during March-April 2025. Soybean sales to China promptly slowed to a dribble of less than 20,000 metric tons in April 2025. Sales to China then stopped completely for 6 months from May through October 2025. Sales restarted as Trump and Xi met in Busan, South Korea and the White House announced  China's commitment to buy 12 mmt of U.S. soybeans during the last two months of 2025 and 25 mmt annually from 2026 to 2028. After sales restarted at the end of October 2025, they surged during November-December 2025 and in early January 2026. A little more than 6 mmt of sales were made by the original target of December 2025--only half...

U.S. and Chinese readouts on the May 14-15 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing agree that agricultural trade between the two countries is important and should be revived, but their descriptions differ on what was agreed at the meeting.  On May 17, The White House released a fact sheet  that featured a commitment by China to purchase $17 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products annually through 2028 in addition to the soybean purchase commitment made in October 2025. The fact sheet also said China agreed to renew expired listings of U.S. beef exporters and pledged to resume imports of U.S. poultry products from U.S. States free of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said soybeans "are all taken care of" by the October purchase agreement, although China has never acknowledged it, China's first round of 12 million tons of soybean purchases was not completed by December 2025 as originally promised, and Successful Farming said "markets ...

China committed to buy $17 billion of non-soybean U.S. agricultural products over the next 3 years according to a Fact Sheet released by the White House  summarizing commitments made during Trumps visit to Beijing last week. These purchases are in addition to China's soybean purchase commitments made in October 2025 to buy 12 million metric tons (mmt) of soybeans in 2025 and 25 mmt annually during 2026-28. China renewed expired approvals for 400 U.S. beef exporting facilities and agreed to resume imports of poultry from U.S. States free of highly pathogenic avian influenza.  The recent history of U.S. agricultural exports to China shows that the $17 billion value of non-soybean exports was exceeded during 2021 and 2022, when the "Phase One" agreement was in force and high commodity prices inflated the value of farm trade (but China did not meet the Phase One targets). Non-soy ag exports have fallen short of $17 billion since 2023. Last year, during the 2025 trad...

China has met its 12-million-ton U.S. soybean purchase commitment, according to  reports by Reuters  and other Western news media--based mostly on USDA reports of sales to China since the October 30 Trump-Xi meeting.  U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent declar ed in Davos, Switzerland that he was assured by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng that China had met the commitment.  The commitment has been met largely (perhaps entirely) by State-owned Chinese companies buying beans at inflated prices to stock Government reserves, an indication that the Chinese Government is making an effort to please the Americans. However, the Chinese Government has never acknowledged the commitment. Back in November 2025 China's Ministry of Commerce  refused to acknowledge  that the soybean purchase commitments had been made. So far this week, the news of about fulfillment of the purchase commitment is mostly absent from Chinese news sites reporting on soybeans. Reports could come...

China's Commerce Ministry refused to confirm that China committed to U.S. soybean purchases at the October 30 Trump-Xi meeting. Reading the tea leaves, it looks like China is in a passive-aggressive state over bilateral trade with the U.S. and has no intention of fulfilling this commitment--if it was ever made. At a November 13 press conference an unidentified "media reporter" asked whether the Ministry of Commerce could confirm the White House's claim that China committed to purchase 12 million metric tons of soybeans this year and 25 million metric tons in the following 3 years. Spokesperson He Yadong gave no direct confirmation, but he didn't deny it either.  He responded with a word salad stating that "the Ministry of Commerce had recently released information regarding the joint arrangements for the China-US Kuala Lumpur trade consultations, outlining the main achievements and consensus reached, including on agricultural trade." He followed up with...

Chicago soybean prices keep rising based on expectations of renewed Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans. Yet, nearly 2 weeks after Xi and Trump met in Korea China seems to be dragging its feet in buying U.S. soybeans.  China has imported a cumulative 95.7 mmt of soybeans for January-October 2025, up 6.4 mmt from the same period in 2024. Imports from the U.S.in the first 10 months of 2025 are only 16.8 mmt.  According to the White House, China committed to buy 12 million metric tons (mmt) of soybeans by the end of 2025, an amount that will be hard to achieve with less than 2 months left in the year. China also reportedly committed to buy at least 25 mmt annually during 2026-28. Beijing consultancy Boyar observed last week that China has not confirmed these figures, and traders are still closely watching for signs of large-scale purchases.  On November 3 China waived punitive tariffs on U.S. agricultural products that had been imposed at the height of the trade war in March...

Most commentary leading up to today's Trump-Xi meeting seems to ascertain that China doesn't need U.S. soybeans. Beneath the surface, though, Chinese soybean buyers are showing signs of angst as they pile up financial losses and look longingly at U.S. soybeans that are substantially cheaper than the Brazilian beans that have comprised 80-to-90% of their supplies since May. Cracks are appearing in the seemingly cozy China-Brazil soybean relationship as Chinese buyers try to scarf up as many beans as possible from the shrinking Brazilian supply. China purchased 180,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans  this week -- probably meant as a show of good will ahead of today's inconclusive Trump-Xi meeting. The only signal to markets from the meeting itself was President Trump's vague assurance that Xi has authorized  "massive" Chinese purchases of American soybeans .  Chinese crushing plants have been processing about 9-to-10 million metric tons of soybeans monthly since r...

 Brazil's soybean exports to China began to slow in August, with 7.9 million metric tons shipped, according to Brazilian export data. That's a slower pace than the 10-to-11 mmt monthly exports during March to July 2025. (But it exceeds the 5.9 mmt exported to China a year ago in August 2024.) As Brazil's huge--but finite--supply of soybeans shrinks, it will become increasingly expensive for Chinese importers to maintain their embargo on U.S. soybeans. Brazilian exports from UN Comtrade This year, arrivals of Brazilian soybeans clearing customs in China seem to have lagged Brazilian exports by 1 or 2 months. For example, China's first spike in arrivals of Brazilian beans this year was in May (12.1 mmt), two months after Brazilian shipments surged in March (11.1 mmt). The August 2025 drop-off in shipments shown in Brazilian exports may show up in China's October import data.  China customs data. Detailed data for August have not yet been released. As Brazilian bean su...

China's frenzy to snatch up record volumes of Brazilian soybeans has had surprisingly little impact on the cost of its soybean imports. The record volume of soybeans arriving in China during May-August 2025 had the lowest per-ton cost since pre-pandemic years. As the southern hemisphere export campaign has passed its peak, competition for Brazilian beans is finally heating up. But China's importers have not yet felt impact of rising Brazilian prices.  In historical context, China's record pace of soybean imports during May-August 2025 stands out clearly, with a total of 50 mmt arriving over those 4 months combined. Most came from Brazil. China now imports from Brazil nearly year-round, but there is still a seasonal pattern. According to Brazilian sources, Brazil's August soybean exports totaled 9.33 mmt--many of which will end up in China this month. That was record-high for August, but down 23.8% from July, suggesting that China's imports of Brazilian beans have pa...

China has flipped from net importer of soybean oil to net exporter for the first time ever, a phenomenon discovered by an analysis posted on a Chinese edible oils industry site  earlier this month. Booming exports and plummeting imports of soy oil indicate the pace of soybean imports from Brazil is overwhelming demand in China and driving down prices of soy oil and meal. At the same time, accumulation of inventories and weak demand in China's food industry will help China sustain its strategy of zeroing out imports of U.S. soybeans to gain the upper hand in trade negotiations. Chinese customs data through July 2025 confirm a prominent uptick in soybean oil exports mirrored by plummeting imports. The chart below shows soybean oil import and export volumes for the first 10 months of the 2024/25 market year compared to year-earlier volumes. (The market year runs from October through September.) With just 2 months left in the 2024/25 market year, China's exports of soybean oil sta...

A U.S-China soybean drama is brewing as the peak season for shipping U.S. soybeans to China is just over the horizon with no sales of U.S. beans to China on the books. Soybeans--one of the top U.S. exports to China--have mostly been in the background of trade negotiations, but they got some publicity this month. President Trump called on China to "quadruple its soybean orders," and the American Soybean Association asked the President to prioritize soybeans in the negotiations to rescue farmers from a "trade and financial precipice." U.S. soybean shipments to China occur predominantly during the months of October-December, immediately after the harvest. During the 2024/25 marketing year now finishing up, the United States exported about 16 million metric tons of soybeans to China during October-December, more than 70 percent of the year's exports to China and about 30 percent of the estimate of total soybean exports for the 2024/25 marketing year in USDA's l...

Recent announcements seem to point to China becoming a soybean meal importer. Large-scale Chinese imports of soybean meal would be a change from its historical practice of importing soybeans to be processed in one of China's dozens of processing plants with annual capacity of over 150 million metric tons.  On July 7,  Reuters reported that a 30,000-metric-ton soybean meal shipment will leave Argentine for China this month, the first major shipment since China approved Argentina as a soybean meal supplier in 2019. The shipment had been booked in late June by a group of Chinese feed millers.  On July 3, Chinese customs officials approved Ethiopia as a soybean meal supplier to China. On June 6, Chinese customs officials approved Uruguay as a supplier of soybean meal and rapeseed meal . Argentine officials were effusive over this month's shipment and were optimistic that this would be followed by more.  At least one industry analyst  interpreted the Argentine ship...