Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

Chinese wheat prices have been falling since the harvest began in May. In Henan Province 262 districts have launched procurement at minimum prices to stop the slide in market prices. The support price program has also been launched in Anhui Province (91 districts), Hebei (46 districts), Jiangsu (14 districts), and Shandong (4 districts), with 6 million metric tons procured. Last year 16.4 mmt of wheat was procured at minimum prices.  China Administration of Food and Commodity Reserves. Flour prices have also been declining since June, suggesting weak downstream demand. Wholesale prices from China Administration of Food and Commodity Reserves. Chinese corn prices have also been falling since May, in part because declining wheat prices have prompted feed mills to substitute wheat for corn. Availability of other substitutes and idling of some corn processing plants due to weak downstream demand also had a depressive effect on corn prices. Some corn market commentators speculate that ...

China had a bumper wheat harvest in 2026 according to the National Bureau of Statistics  communique on summer grain output--despite late planting of the crop last Fall and torrential rains and hail that impeded this Summer's harvest and degraded quality. Declining prices after the harvest seem to confirm that supplies are ample. Despite a glutted wheat market, the prospect of farmers abandoning wheat due to lack of profit fuels Chinese authorities' obsession with "food security." Summer-harvested wheat output was 138.95 million metric tons, up 0.6% from last year despite drenching rains that delayed planting in the Fall and additional heavy rainfall during the summer harvest season. Keep in mind that last year's output was impacted by severe drought . Summer grain output, which includes wheat as well as barley, oats, buckwheat, cowpeas, and some beans and potatoes, totaled 150.75 mmt.  USDA's WASDE  report estimates China's wheat area at 140 mmt in 2025 (m...

A Chinese contractor complained about a deadbeat agricultural bureau's unpaid bills by posting a video showing a banner demanding payment. This item has attracted a lot of attention as it crystallizes the widespread phenomenon of unpaid bills at the grassroots level in China. A still image from the video and an article explaining the dispute  has been posted online this week showing a drone hoisting a banner with the message: "Shanghe County Agriculture Bureau: It’s been three years—pay up!"  Drone displays a banner demanding payment from Shanghe County Agricultural Bureau. The company displaying the banner is Shandong Junshen Hydrocarbon Biotechnology, Ltd. which won a government contract in May 2023 to spray the wheat crop in six townships of Shanghe County, on the outskirts of Jinan--the capital of China's Shandong Province. Every spring China conducts a nationwide spraying of the winter wheat crop called "one spray, three defenses" that douses wheat fiel...

Self-sufficiency in wheat and rice is a pillar of China's food security policy, but officials revealed last week that the country produces 140 million metric tons of wheat and only consumes 65% of it as food. Much of China's wheat is fed to animals or stored in warehouses for as long as 9 years. With surpluses even in years of poor yields, authorities are propping up prices to convince farmers to keep growing surplus wheat. Last week Chinese propaganda outlets assured farmers that they will get a good price for their wheat as the harvest kicks into gear this month. Official news sites and TV broadcasts reported variations of the same upbeat prediction of a good wheat harvest, stable prices, and ample reserves given at a National Administration of Food and Commodity Reserves news conference on May 14, 2026. Such announcements are common ahead of the grain harvest, but the amount of detail offered and the dozens of outlets broadcasting the "news" suggests that the regim...

China purchased 13 million metric tons of wheat through its minimum procurement price program this year, according to the director of the State Administration of Food and Commodity Reserves . Purchases were made in provinces of Henan, Anhui, Hebei, and Shandong.  The director also announced that a total of 100.16 million metric tons of wheat has been procured during the peak marketing season. Thus, 13% of this year's crop was purchased at the minimum price and stored in government reserves. The director said wheat procurement began early this year and proceeded smoothly as most farmers sought to sell their grain as soon as it was harvested. The minimum price program gave farmers a "bottom line" that guaranteed that farmers could sell their wheat at a good price, the director said. The minimum price for wheat this year  is RMB 2,380 per metric ton for grade 3 wheat. The Chinese support price works out to US$ 9 per bushel at the current exchange rate. By comparison, the fut...

Another bumper wheat crop of 138.16 million metric tons was proclaimed for 2025 in the "summer grain" report released by the National Bureau of Statistics. A Bureau official said the bumper harvest lays the foundation for stabilizing the year's grain output and will help China cope with the "complex and severe international situation" while promoting recovery of the economy. The Bureau acknowledged that serious drought impacted wheat production in Shaanxi, Henan, and Jiangsu provinces but insisted that irrigation and other mitigation minimized losses. Production increased in Sichuan, Shandong, Hebei, and Hubei Provinces. An adjustment in cropping structure reduced wheat output in Xinjiang. National wheat production was down 167,000 metric tons from the previous year, a decline of less than -0.1%, according to the Bureau.  China's Summer Grain production, 2025 Category Item Unit 2025 Change Summer grains Prod...

China's wheat crop was hit by drought this year, but authorities are nevertheless scrambling to prop up sinking wheat prices. Several years ago, Chinese officials made farmers tear up fruit trees and cash crops so more food grains could be planted. Now farmers are seeing low yields and bad prices for the wheat officials forced them to plant. As reported here last month , there have been reports of sustained drought conditions in parts of China's wheat belt. During an inspection of the wheat harvest in Henan Province last week China's Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Han Jun acknowledged that parts of the largest wheat-producing province had experienced sustained drought, but he insisted that efforts to ramp up irrigation had reduced damage to the crop. Most of the article recounted Han's urging of officials and farmers to boost wheat yields and improve disaster prevention efforts. A report by futures market analysts gave an evaluation of the new wheat crop th...

Reports of serious drought and pictures of parched fields have circulated on China's internet over the past two months. While Chinese officials acknowledge drought impacts, they insist the wheat crop now being harvested will be normal. We'll have to wait for market prices and imports to reveal whether drought has meaningful impact on China's supply of wheat--the main crop harvested during the summer months. An April article on Chinese social media observed that many reports of serious drought bubbling up around the country conflicted with the agriculture ministry's pronouncement that a "strong foundation had been laid" for a bumper harvest of summer-harvested crops. At the same time, that article also observed that posts by online influencers in China may not be credible either since they have incentive to exaggerate drought problems to attract attention. Whom to believe? Will China resume large imports of wheat after cutting imports sharply last year?  In ea...