Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

China has announced  antidumping duties of 54.3% on U.S. pecans following an  investigation by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce that claimed the nuts were sold below their production cost. The duty on Mexican pecans is 51.68%. The investigation was launched last year during the depths of the U.S.-China trade war. Duties took effect today August 11, 2026--about 6 weeks ahead of Xi Jinping's expected visit to Washington next month. It's hard to discern the necessity of the duties to protect China's pecan industry. In a classic import substitution strategy, Chinese leaders created an industry from nothing by transplanting an essentially American crop as a substitute for imported U.S. pecans that are popular with Chinese consumers. Imports already collapsed last year, undermining the claim of "harm" to the Chinese industry. The antidumping investigation claimed that surging imports of pecans from the U.S. and Mexico harmed the Chinese industry. Chinese customs data s...

China's relentless growth in exports of the amino acid lysine was finally reversed in 2025. The value of exports fell more than the volume as AD actions by the EU, Brazil and the U.S. hit prices hard in the Chinese industry. Lower prices led to gains in dozens of other markets around the world, but the value of exports was down sharply. Source: China customs data HS code 29224190. Lysine is an essential amino acid that can be used in animal diets for protein synthesis to improve muscle growth and feed efficiency. China imported lysine and other amino acid feed supplements until the early 2000s, but China now produces an estimated 70% of the world's amino acids. In addition to lysine, China exports threonine, tryptophan, and methionine.  China has the world's largest livestock herd, and China's agriculture ministry has been promoting domestic use of amino acids as a means of reducing use of soybean meal in animal diets. Yet domestic demand for lysine has been less dynami...

On August 12, China's Commerce Ministry determined that Canada was guilty of "dumping" canola seed and assessed punitive tariffs of 75.8 percent on Canadian canola seed. This is the latest example of Chinese authorities using canola as a geopolitical punching bag. They move their foot from accelerator to brake, allowing imports to curb rising prices before choking them off to punish Canada for lining up with the United States on bigger issues. The surge of imports and declining prices China's commerce ministry alleges to have "harmed" Chinese producers in 2023 was created by Chinese leaders themselves after they lifted a 3-year-old restriction on canola imports in order to curb spiraling prices. Commerce Ministry officials claim that Canada's subsidies and preferential policies distorted supply and demand, created severe excess capacity, and harmed Chinese rapeseed producers and processors. The findings are the mirror image of justifications for curbing...

China has opened its market to Brazilian distillers dried grains (DDG), a co-product of distilling fuel ethanol from corn that is a cost-efficient ingredient in animal feed. This will further enhance Brazil's dominance as a supplier of China's agricultural imports. China was once a big market for U.S. DDG, but those sales were diverted to other countries after China hit them with steep duties. Exports of Brazilian DDGs to China are expected to grow at a rapid pace. Brazil's corn-based ethanol production has been growing rapidly, and the Brazilian industry has been eager to gain access to China's market for its DDG coproducts.  According to S&P Global  Brazil's industry has been working hard to gain access to China's market. A Brazilian official told S&P Global, "[W]e continue to push forward with a major goal: opening up the Chinese market, ensuring even more sustainability for this sector." An estimate circulated in news media  forecasts that ...

China is launching an anti-subsidy investigation against European pork --a brazenly cynical move since China itself probably has more pork subsidies and government intervention than any other country. An industry source estimated earlier this month that 22 Chinese hog-producing companies received a total of 4.7 billion yuan (about $650 million) in subsidies during 2023. According to the industry source, the objective of the government aid is to build up big companies with prominent brands on the premise that they will "pull along" farmers and cooperatives. Muyuan, the largest hog producer in the world, got 2.877 billion yuan in aid. Others got smaller amounts: 257 million yuan to New Hope Group, 242 million yuan to COFCO, 232 million yuan to Wens Group, and 202 million yuan to DBN. The industry source estimated that 29% of aid given to Wens was for production activities, 23% for R&D, 15% for buildings and equipment, and 8% for environmental protection (no mention of wher...

China's Ministry of Commerce announced today that its antidumping and anti-subsidy investigation of sorghum imported from the United States would be terminated because duties would not be in the public interest. Provisional duties of 179% imposed last month will be terminated and deposits collected will be returned. The Ministry's "Announcement on termination of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation of sorghum imported from United States" [ 关于终止对原产于美国的进口高粱反倾销反补贴调查的公告 ] released May 18, 2018 said the investigation found that duties would raise costs for consumers and impose even more pain on the beleaguered swine industry which is suffering severe losses due to a 30-percent decline in hog prices since the beginning of the year: "In the process of the investigation, the investigating organizations received many reactions from downstream users who told the investigation that downstream livestock farming industry would experience higher costs. The anti-dump...

Two recent Chinese commentaries reveal commonly-held beliefs about American farm subsidies that are behind Chinese antidumping and countervailing duty investigations of U.S. farm products like chicken, distillers grains, sorghum, and maybe soybeans. A March 7 article, " Influence of U.S. agricultural subsidies on world agricultural trade " from the State-supported Futures Daily was posted on the Ministry of Commerce's WTO information web site and a number of other Chinese sites. The unidentified author asserted that imports of sorghum from the U.S. "receive subsidies from the U.S. government," which allow them to be exported to China at a price lower than the "normal value," and "there is a significant degree of dumping." The implicit assumption is that the Chinese price is the "normal" value, and any price lower than the Chinese price must be abnormal--the "middle kingdom" is the center of the world, after all. A M...

There are rumors that China's Ministry of Commerce is mulling an antidumping investigation to slow imports of U.S. Distillers Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS). On October 27, 2015, China's Farmers Daily published a collection of articles from a "corn industry alert" meeting held by the Ministry of Agriculture's Information Center on October 9 where industry representatives discussed how to deal with problems of soaring corn stockpiles, declining prices, weak demand and pressure from imported corn substitutes. Two of the articles called for limits on DDGS imports to help the domestic ethanol industry return to profitability. DDGS is the by-product of manufacturing ethanol from corn. China also has manufacturers of ethanol for fuel, beverage and industrial uses who rely on selling distillers grain by-products for a significant portion of their revenue. Domestic DDGS prices have tumbled by half or more over the past year. One price report today says DDGS pr...

China's new plan for agricultural trade promotion advocates more support for overseas marketing, more systematic use of safeguards to protect domestic industries, better information and other services, financial support for exporters and a more active role in international trade negotiations. The plan for agricultural trade promotion (2011-2020) was released by the Ministry of Agriculture December 29, 2011. The plan emphasizes the importance of international trade for creating jobs, raising farmers' income and guaranteeing the supply of important commodities to the domestic market. It also worries that large volumes of imports are putting downward pressure on prices for some Chinese commodities. The plan voices concerns that rising costs in China are eroding international competitiveness and it worries that exports have low value-added, are sold in small batches and often face quality barriers overseas. The plan calls for promoting exports more actively, exports with higher ...

On December 28, China announced an antidumping investigation against imports of U.S. distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS), the by-product of ethanol production which is used as an animal feed ingredient. An earlier post is here . A January 10 article on the yumi.com.cn site offers some speculation on what may have prompted the investigation of DDGS. The article describes how burgeoning demand for protein among Chinese feed mills prompted the imports. U.S. DDGS has better quality and lower price than domestic DDGS. DDGS imports are not subject to quotas nor limitations on GMO content, so compared with corn, “import problems are relatively easy to solve, the purchase method is relatively convenient.” The article emphasizes competition between imported and domestic DDGS. The author points to a declining trend in Chinese DDGS prices during 2010 that coincided with the imports. He claims that the declining income from the DDGS byproduct combined with high corn prices has squeezed p...

A bag of DDGS from a Chinese ethanol company in a Jilin Province feed mill China announced an antidumping investigation against distillers dried grain with solubles (DDGS), a feed ingredient imported from the United States. DDGS is a byproduct of the production process for making ethanol. Chinese feed mills began importing DDGS from the U.S. in significant quantities in September 2009. Chinese customs statistics show that imports during the 12 months ending in October this year totaled about 3 million metric tons (mmt). (To put this number in perspective, China's imports of corn were about 1.5 mmt during that period and imports of soybeans were about 50 mmt. China uses roughly 70 mmt of corn for feed each year.) The interest in importing DDGS is reflected by the many queries posted on Chinese electronic discussion boards seeking information about DDGS and how to import it. According to Chinese web sites, DDGS is a byproduct of the fermentation process that produces ethanol and carb...