Mold is Tightening China's Corn Market

This month Chinese statisticians will probably report a record 2025 corn crop, but a significant portion of the harvest is unusable. Continuous heavy rain during September and October flooded fields in some of the leading production areas of the North China Plain region, preventing equipment from harvesting some fields and caused mold and sprouting on corn that was harvested. While Chinese news media have been showing photos of giant corn drying facilities to allay concerns about mold, social media showed some farmers scrubbing corn cobs to remove mold. A screenshot from another Chinese video below shows an individual spraying piles of corn to kill mold.

Farmer attempts to scrub mold off corn cobs.

Spraying corn to kill mold

China's corn futures prices dropped 4.6% during September and early October following what appeared to be another "bumper harvest." News of the impact of heavy rains on the north China corn crop spread in mid-October, and the price rose 7.3% from late October to early December. 

Daily closing prices on Dalian Commodity Exchange.

The impacts of mold are gradually filtering into various segments of China's corn market. Tightness first showed up in regions of North China like Shandong Province that were heavily impacted by rains. Prices did not fall steeply after harvest in Shandong. In North China, according to some reports 70% of the corn offered on the market is high in moisture and unusable for animal feed. Meanwhile, northeastern provinces Jilin and Heilongjiang had a bumper corn harvest with few quality problems. Jilin and Heilongjiang prices did fall after harvest in October, although the decline was brief as prices turned up in November. Now some feed mills in North China are purchasing local wheat or high-quality corn from the Northeast to augment the limited supply of high-quality corn. The interregional movement of corn, however, has been impeded by tight supplies of rail cars and snowfall. There is some speculation that increased sales by northeastern farmers at the end of December could ease upward pressure on prices.

Source: China National Grain and Oils Information Center, reported by FAO GIEWS database.

Relatively soft final demand also eases upward pressure on corn prices. Southern feed companies--seeing signs of a downturn in the livestock sector--are cautious in building up inventories. Still, some feed companies are reportedly seeking lower-priced alternative grains and have begun inquiring about imported barley and sorghum. A rebound in imports of feed grains in Q1 2026 is possible.

The downturn in Chinese corn prices this year was less pronounced and briefer than it was a year ago during the 2024 harvest. Last year's plunging prices continued a lengthy decline in Chinese corn prices that began in 2023 and surely alarmed Chinese officials who constantly fret over potential rural unrest and collapse in grain output. Grain imports were abruptly shut down in August 2024. With minimal imports, Chinese corn prices rebounded early this year as the domestic marketing season passed its peak. Chinese officials may be happy that this year's rains prevented corn prices from falling as far as last year.  

Monthly averages through November 2025

Chinese officials never announced a tightening of corn import controls. Just before grain imports suddenly plunged in August last year an Economic Daily commentator whose articles echo official grain policy carefully explained how the tariff rate quota system limits imports of grains and asserted that the country needed to do a good job on storing and importing grain in order to strengthen prices for farmers. China's corn imports during the first 10 months of 2025 are down about 90% from a year earlier and lower than at any time this decade. China's feedtrade.com.cn reports that imported grains still have a price advantage in southern Chinese ports, but it also reports that stocks of imported grain are adequate.

China customs data, calendar years.

China's monthly imports of corn this year have been erratic from all suppliers except Russia which has supplied corn to China in 9 of 10 months. Top suppliers of China's corn this year are Brazil (540,000mt), Russia (333,000mt), Ukraine (231,000mt), and Myanmar (144,000mt). China has only imported 20,000 mt of corn from the U.S. in 2025, but this is not a concern since USDA export inspections indicate that U.S. corn exports for the current market year are on a record pace and about 7.9 million metric tons ahead of last year.

Are China's low and erratic feed grain imports in 2025 a return to normal for China? Or was the sustained import of 40-to-50 million metric tons annually during 2021-24 the "normal" that will be restored in the future?