China's soybean meal percentage of feed is meaningless

Chinese officials have been pushing feed mills and livestock farmers to reduce their use of soybean meal in animal feed for more than 5 years. They like to point to percentages of soybean meal and corn in manufactured feed reported by the quasi-government China Feed Industry Association (CFIA) as evidence of progress on this campaign. However, these percentages have no correspondence to soybean imports and are essentially meaningless. 

CFIA has included the percentages of soybean meal and corn in animal feed in its reports of monthly feed production since 2021. CFIA occasionally skips a month, never issues a December report, and occasionally omits the percentages. Agricultural officials occasionally cherry-pick percentages from these reports to demonstrate the success of their programs to cut soybean meal use.

The percentage of soybean meal compiled from monthly CFIA reports from 2022 to 2025 in the chart below shows no obvious trend in the percentage. High values of 15.6 were reported during several months of 2022, and low values of 12.1 percent were reported in April-May 2025. But values of 12.5 and 12.7 were also reported in other months of 2022, and values of 13.3 percent were reported in January-February 2025. 

The percentage of soybean meal is remarkably stable in comparison with the percentage of corn used in feed, which is higher and fluctuates more than the soybean meal percentage. The corn percentage ranged from as low as 22.8 percent in July 2023 to over 47 percent in 2025. The corn percentage appears to have a seasonal pattern. Low values during summer months likely correspond to an increase in seasonal supply of wheat and wheat bran that can substitute for corn in northern regions of China, while the peak during January corresponds to the seasonal availability of corn. 

Compiled from China Feed Industry Association reports.

The soymeal and corn percentages add up to 40%-to-50% most months. CFIA never reports what makes up the other 50%-to-60% of feed ingredients: sorghum, barley, wheat, distillers grains, cassava, whey, fish meal, other protein sources, etc. Substitution of wheat for corn could reduce the need for soybean meal to some degree since wheat's protein content is higher than corn's.

Chinese officials say the reduction in soybean meal use will result in a big drop in soybean imports. That did not happen in 2024 when CFIA reported that use of soymeal decreased by 2.4 million metric tons (mmt), yet customs data showed that imports of soybeans increased by 7.2 mmt during the calendar year. 

The lack of correspondence between CFIA data and soybean imports can be demonstrated with monthly data. CFIA never reports the actual amount of soy used, but the implied amount can be calculated by multiplying the reported percentage of soymeal used in feed by the volume of feed produced (excluding additives which have no soymeal). The chart below shows this monthly volume charted against the potential supply of soymeal calculated as 70% of monthly soybean imports. 

Again, there is no declining trend in soymeal consumption based on the CFIA data. Use of soymeal implied by the CFIA data is low and fluctuates very little from month to month compared with supplies implied by imports. During 2023 and 2024 the potential supply of soymeal far exceeded the amount used in feed implied by the CFIA data. The flat use of soybean meal implied by the CFIA data would not have predicted the increase in soybean imports in 2024. CFIA data imply flat use of soymeal in 2025 so far, but imports were unusually low during January-April before exploding to record-high in May 2025.  

Soybean meal use calculated from China Feed Industry Association data.
Soybean meal supply is 70% of monthly soybean imports (HS 12019019).

The conclusion is that the Feed Industry Association's percentages are not useful as an indicator of China's demand for imported soybeans. 

Soybeans have staying power in China because they are the cheapest and most abundant source of both protein for feed and edible oil in China. Soybean meal and oil will retain its dominance as long as the products are cheap and cost-effective. It's true that China's growth in soybean consumption will not continue on its past path of relentless growth. But be skeptical when you hear Chinese officials citing their data about percentage of soybean meal in feed as a portent of declining soybean imports.