Lower prices for China's harvest in 2024

With Chinese farm prices down 10-to-18 percent from a year ago, the upcoming fall harvest looks set to deal a painful blow Chinese farmers' earnings. 

Weekly prices from China's National Grain and Commodity Reserves Administration show the late-August 2024 procurement price for corn at RMB 2306 per metric ton, down 18 percent from a year ago. The collapse of Chinese corn prices occurred during last year's peak marketing season, from September 2023 to February 2024. Corn prices weakened again last month as the new corn procurement season approaches, suggesting that growers of China's largest crop may get hammered when they sell their grain this fall. 

Compiled from China National Grain and Commodity Reserves Administration.

Chinese soybean prices are down for the second year in a row. The average domestic soybean procurement price was RMB 4649 per metric ton at the end of August, down about 10 percent from a year ago. Chinese soybean prices fell during the last two marketing seasons. This year's August price is 23 percent below the peak in 2021/22.

Compiled from China National Grain and Commodity Reserves Administration.

The wheat marketing season is winding down. Chinese wheat prices have been on a 4-month slide since the 2024/25 marketing season began in May. The average August 2024 wheat price of RMB 2463 per metric ton is down 14 percent from a year ago. Chinese wheat prices are down 24 percent from their peak in December 2022. 

Compiled from China National Grain and Commodity Reserves Administration.

Chinese rapeseed is also in the midst of its marketing season. Rapeseed prices averaged RMB 5960 per metric ton in August, down 9 percent from a year ago. Rapeseed prices began their decline in April-June 2023, fell again this past spring, and August 2024 prices are down 12 percent from their peak two years ago. 

Compiled from China National Grain and Commodity Reserves Administration.

Declining prices and revenues could mean that many farmers do not cover their costs this year. China's official cost and returns survey shows that corn was profitable in 2021 and 2022. However, the decline in prices this year likely will fall below production cost for corn. 

Compiled from China National Development and Reform Commission
agricultural product cost and returns data.

Chinese officials are likely quite nervous. City people are already growing impatient with the collapse of the property sector, economic mismanagement, unemployment, and the zero-covid debacle. The prospect of disgruntled farmers and rural uprisings could bring the situation to the boiling point. 

Moreover, Chinese officials worry that losses on this year's crops could prompt farmers to abandon fields, threatening national food security. Their soybean and rapeseed recovery plan has led to plummeting prices for both oilseeds.  

Officials are likely to clamp down on wheat and corn quotas to limit imports in the hope of goosing prices upward. Low rapeseed prices surely were a partial motivation for China's announcement this week of an antidumping probe of Canadian canola. Watch for new antidumping probes and discoveries of contaminants and phantom GMOs, or substandard imports as officials try to boost prices for the upcoming harvest.