Friday, November 10, 2017

China Ag Imports Up 13% Through September

China imported $93.9 billion worth of agricultural products during January-September 2017, according to statistics released by China's Agriculture Ministry. The import value was up 13.4 percent from the same period a year ago. Agricultural exports totaled $53.3 billion, up 1.5 percent from last year. The agricultural trade deficit was $40.6 billion.

China's agricultural imports,
January-September 2017
Import value Growth from previous year
Billion
dollars
Percent
Ag total 93.9 13.4
Cereals 5.0 7.6
Oilseeds 32.3 19.6
Livestock products 18.8 6.5
Edible oils 4.1 15.9
Fruit 5.0 7.5
Cotton and yarn 2.5 44.1
Sugar 0.9 6.8
Vegetables 0.4 0.2
Fish and seafood 8.5 23.3

China is generating plenty of cash to pay for agricultural imports. Agricultural imports during Jan-Sep constituted just 6.8% of China's total import bill for the first three quarters of 2017. The $ 40.6 billion agricultural trade deficit made a small dent in the overall $ 307 billion trade surplus through September of this year.

As usual, oilseeds--$32.3 billion--were the dominant component of agricultural imports--accounting for about a third of the dollar value. Oilseed imports are up nearly 20 percent this year, so far. Livestock products were the second-largest chunk, with $18.8 billion. Every category of agricultural imports was up this year, and many were up in double-digit percentage growth.

Imports of each category of oilseeds and vegetable oils are up sharply this year. While officials struggle to engineer rebounds in domestic soybean and rapeseed production, imports continue to meet China's seemingly insatiable demand for grease.
China imports of oilseeds and edible oils, Jan-Sept 2017
Item
Imports
Growth from last year

Mil.
tonnes
Percent
Soybeans
71.45
16.8
Rapeseed
3.65
23.5
Palm oil
3.485
13.1
Rapeseed oil
0.614
20.1
Sunflower and safflower
0.497
31.8
Soybean oil
0.545
38.2

China imported 20.3 million tonnes of cereal grains in the first three quarters of 2017, up 12.2 percent from last year. Imports of wheat are up 25 percent this year. The demand for imported wheat reflects the poor quality of the 2016 crop and tight supplies of good quality wheat. Rice imports are up 16 percent, due to the persistent gap between Chinese and world prices. China has been aggressively exporting rice as well this year: its rice exports are up nearly 3-fold from last year to 888,000 tonnes.

China's imports of corn are down 23.6 percent this year to 2.28 mmt for Jan-Sep, as the Chinese government tries to force-feed the market with its bulging reserves. Distillers grains imports were down 86 percent, due to antidumping and countervailing duties slapped on this feed ingredient a year ago. Imports of sorghum--used mainly as a feed ingredient--are down 25 percent, but barley and cassava imports remain strong.

China imports of grains and other major agricultural commodities, Jan.-Sept. 2017
Item
Imports, Jan-Sep
Change from a year ago

Million tonnes
Percent
Wheat
3.63
25.6
Corn
2.28
-23.6
Rice
2.98
16.3
Barley
6.96
80.3
Sorghum
4.24
-25.3
DDGS
0.375
-86.1
Cassava
6.10
3.4
Cotton
1.08
16.8
Yarn*
1.432
1.3
Sugar
1.83
-29.9
*Yarn is a substitute for cotton.

China has been trying to force-feed its cotton reserves to its domestic market for several years to unwind a price support program that went awry--much as it is doing now for corn. According to the Ag Ministry China's cotton imports are up 16.8 percent so far this year, as cotton supplies are reportedly tightening in China. Cotton imports of 1 million tonnes are slightly above the tariff rate quota of 890,000 tonnes. Yarn imports--which have no quota restriction--are 1.4 million tonnes so far this year.

Sugar imports, also the target of new Chinese antidumping duties, are down 30 percent from last year. The sugar duties apply to imports outside of the 1.9-million tonne tariff rate quota. This year's imports of 1.8 million tonnes through September are close to the quota amount.

China's pork imports are down in 2017 as domestic prices have fallen from record levels reached in the first half of 2016. Imports of pork and pork offal were each 921,000 tonnes during the first three quarters of 2017, still historically high. Beef imports were up 14.7 percent, to 503,000 tonnes. China's opening of its market to U.S. beef had a minimal role--customs statistics say imports of U.S. beef totaled about 520 tonnes--0.1 percent of the total for this year through September. Imports of milk powder surged 23 percent to 820,000 tonnes.
China meat imports, Jan-Sep 2017
Item
Imports, Jan-Sep
Change from a year ago

1000 tonnes
Percent
Pork
921
-28.0
Pork offal
921
-15.4
Beef
503
14.7
Mutton
188
2.8
Milk powder
820
23.5


China's top agricultural export items were fish and seafood ($15.4 bil), vegetables ($11.1 bil.), fruits ($4.5 bil), and livestock products ($4.6 bil).

2 comments:

The China Sourcing said...


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The China Sourcing said...
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