On June 18, USDA announced sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans to China--the first for the 2026/27 crop year. As the market begins to watch progress on China's 25-mmt purchase commitment for 2026, let's review how China met its commitment to purchase 12 million metric tons of soybeans during 2025.
The U.S. began announcing tariffs on Chinese goods during March-April 2025. Soybean sales to China promptly slowed to a dribble of less than 20,000 metric tons in April 2025. Sales to China then stopped completely for 6 months from May through October 2025. Sales restarted as Trump and Xi met in Busan, South Korea and the White House announced China's commitment to buy 12 mmt of U.S. soybeans during the last two months of 2025 and 25 mmt annually from 2026 to 2028.
After sales restarted at the end of October 2025, they surged during November-December 2025 and in early January 2026. A little more than 6 mmt of sales were made by the original target of December 2025--only half of the targeted amount. Treasury Secretary Bessent subsequently pushed back the deadline. Sales hit 11 mmt during March 2026, 11.9 mmt by the end of May, and stood at 11.96 mmt by mid-June. Thus, it took about 7 months to reach the sales target.
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| Sources: USDA Export Query System and China customs data. Monthly Chinese imports were interpolated to estimate weekly amounts. |
Physical shipments to China--measured by USDA export inspections--occurred with a roughly 6-week lag. Exports began in December, accelerated in January, and the cumulative total reached 6 mmt by February. Exports hit 11 mmt by early May, about 2 months after sales had reached that level. Exports reached 11.76 mmt by mid-June.
Arrival in China--measured by Chinese imports of U.S. soybeans--occurred with a nearly 2-month lag. The first U.S. soybeans arrived in January 2026, and cumulative arrivals reached 6 mmt during April 2026. Cumulative imports of U.S. soybeans were 8.33 mmt by the end of May. If the current pace continues, the arrival of the 12-mmt of U.S. soybeans may be complete by August 2026--just before the 2026/27 U.S. marketing year begins and about 10 months after the initial sales in late October 2025.
It appears that China has followed through on the 12-mmt purchase commitment despite the lack of a written agreement and no Chinese officials having acknowledged the commitment.
A rare mention of the purchase commitment was made in a Chinese soybean market analysis this week, but it indicated that there is still confusion about what metric will be used to monitor and evaluate the purchase commitment. The analysis on a feed industry web site suggested that the 8.33 mmt of U.S. soybeans that China has imported from January to May count toward fulfillment of the 25-mmt 2026 purchase commitment. Analysts outside of China would agree that the 8.33 mmt counts toward the 2025 commitment (as has been presumed here). It has never been clearly specified whether the 2026 commitment refers to export sales completed by the end of calendar year 2026 or the 2026/27 marketing year.
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