China has flipped from net importer of soybean oil to net exporter for the first time ever, a phenomenon discovered by an analysis posted on a Chinese edible oils industry site earlier this month. Booming exports and plummeting imports of soy oil indicate the pace of soybean imports from Brazil is overwhelming demand in China and driving down prices of soy oil and meal. At the same time, accumulation of inventories and weak demand in China's food industry will help China sustain its strategy of zeroing out imports of U.S. soybeans to gain the upper hand in trade negotiations.
Chinese customs data through July 2025 confirm a prominent uptick in soybean oil exports mirrored by plummeting imports. The chart below shows soybean oil import and export volumes for the first 10 months of the 2024/25 market year compared to year-earlier volumes. (The market year runs from October through September.)
With just 2 months left in the 2024/25 market year, China's exports of soybean oil stand at 234,000 metric tons and its imports at 127,000 metric tons so far in 2024/25. This year's soybean oil imports are less than half the volume imported during the year-earlier period, and exports are up 170 percent.
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| China's market year is October-September; data are available through July 2025. Chart shows October-to-July imports and exports for MY 2023/24 and 2024/25. Data from China customs administration. |
An examination of USDA's PS&D database indicates that China's soybean oil exports are at a record high, and this is the first time China has ever been a net exporter of soybean oil. USDA estimates that China's imports and exports will each be 250,000 mt for 2024/25. Chinese customs data suggest the export number will hit that estimate for the full market year, but the import number is likely to fall short. Thus, China is likely to end up a net exporter for the full 2024/25 market year.
China has dozens of export markets for its soybean oil, but the largest increases in exports went to South Korea (up 30,300 mt), Hong Kong (up 29,000 mt), Malaysia (up 23,560 mt), and North Korea (up 16,670 mt).
The emergence of China as a net exporter of oil is mostly symbolic of market conditions in China. The export volumes are inconsequential. USDA estimates that China's consumption of soybean oil will hit 20 million metric tons in 2024/25, by far the largest in the world (By comparison, U.S. consumption is estimated at 12.178 mmt). Essentially all of China's soy oil production is derived from crushing imported soybeans to produce oil and soybean meal.
The rise in soy oil exports suggests that the amount of oil produced from imported soybeans exceeds China's demand, resulting in low domestic prices that are competitive on the world market. Closure of many restaurants and workplace cafeterias and slow demand from food processors crimps demand for imported oil. The CASDE supply and demand report issued by China's agriculture ministry this month shows that domestic ex-factory prices of soybean oil in China is about 12 percent below the price of imported soybean oil during 2024/25; that margin was about 2 percent in 2023/24.
A survey of China's Guangdong and Guangxi Provinces reported that inventories of Chinese soybean oil are also up. Downstream consumption was judged to be weak but could rebound when the school year starts. Inventories of soybean meal are also ample, with some processors running out of room.The report estimated that ample inventories and weak demand could help China get through the fourth quarter on Brazilian soybean supplies, but a significant shortage could occur by January.
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