China's October 2025 commitment to buy U.S. soybeans has bifurcated the Chinese soybean trade. Beijing-based state-owned companies have been buying U.S. soybeans to fulfill China's purchase commitment while crushers in the provinces have been buying from Brazil and Argentina.
A stark contrast in the regional breakdown of Chinese soybeans importers this year suggests that state-owned companies are carrying out the purchases of U.S. soybeans. As we showed in a recent post, China has purchased nearly all the 12 mmt of U.S. soybeans promised in October 2025, and 8.3 million metric tons of those U.S. soybeans have arrived in China as of May 2026. Customs data shows all 8.3 mmt of those U.S. soybeans were imported by companies headquartered in Beijing. The headquarters of state-owned giants COFCO and Sinograin are in Beijing, but there is little or no soybean processing capacity there. No U.S. soybeans were imported by companies in other provinces.
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| Imports in million metric tons from Chinese customs data. |
In contrast, Chinese importers of 26.4 million metric tons (mmt) of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans during January-May were scattered around the eastern half of China, reflecting the geographic layout of soybean processing facilities. Most soybeans were imported by companies in a string of coastal provinces stretching from Liaoning (1.33 mmt) to Guangxi (1.9 mmt). The top importers were in Shandong (4.2 mmt), Jiangsu (3.9 mmt), and Shanghai (3.4 mmt). Beijing companies imported only 120,000 metric tons of Argentine and Brazilian soybeans. (Note that the public customs data reveals only the province where the importer is registered, not the location where the soybeans entered the country.)
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| Imports in million metric tons from Chinese customs data. |
In an analysis 10 years ago when I had access to detailed data, I found 113 companies imported soybeans in China. The number probably hasn't gone down much since then, and the industry remains highly competitive, with these dozens of companies seeking to maximize market share and eager to spread fixed costs over larger volumes.
Recent descriptions of China's soybean crushing industry indicate it is still composed of several large state-owned companies, four multinationals, a handful of large Chinese private and municipal-owned companies, as well as joint venture combinations of the above that are not easily classified. Governmental influence varies--centrally-owned companies get direct orders from Beijing, others may get informal instructions from time to time, and all are eager to show fealty to the government's initiatives and plans to ensure business success.
State-owned companies are now the largest component, with about 35-to-40% of China's soybean crushing capacity. Sinograin, headquartered in Beijing, is the company that manages grain and edible oil reserves. COFCO is a conglomerate composed of a trading company, soybean crushing, and various other food and logistics subsidiaries. Both state-owned companies have extensive crushing capacity and branded cooking oils available in supermarkets. COFCO is the leader in crushing capacity with 33 crushing facilities and 26 mmt of capacity, but many/most of the soybeans imported by Beijing companies may be stored in reserves. Besides COFCO and Sinograin, there are other state-owned companies that are not as closely tied to Beijing policy implementation.
Not all COFCO or Sinograin imports are registered as imported by Beijing. The COFCO crushers are registered as subsidiary companies in the provinces where they operate. For example, in Shandong Province COFCO has several large soybean processors located near ports: COFCO Huanghai Grain & Oils (Rizhao), Chinatex Grain & Oils (Rizhao), and COFCO Oil Refining (Yantai).
However, imports for national reserves are more likely attributed to Beijing headquarters. Back in December 2025 Sinograin held auctions of imported soybeans held in reserves to make room for the new U.S. beans that were being purchased at the time to fulfill the October commitment. The auctioned beans had been imported mostly during 2022 and 2024, and they were stored in a dozen provinces, with the largest amounts in Shandong, Tianjin, and Liaoning. However, only 2 mmt were actually sold.
Beijing companies also carried out Phase One agreement purchase commitments. Nearly all the corn China imported from the U.S. during 2020-24 was imported by Beijing companies. Those imports have now stopped.
In past years, the United States viewed the outsized role of China's state-owned companies as an obstacle to imports--this issue was at the heart of a WTO challenge of China's tariff-rate quota system for grains. Now the role of state-owned companies is flipped. The U.S. is relying on China's state-owned companies to buy American soybeans in order to fulfill purchase commitments Chinese leaders made as part of trade deals.
The Chinese state-owned companies have apparently bought the soybeans at premium prices. U.S. soybean export prices were bid up to a 10-to-12% premium over Brazilian prices during the weeks leading up to the October summit, and that premium never narrowed until the past month. Thus, the purchase commitment may have raised prices for all U.S. soybean sellers, including those that did not sell to China. Private and multinational buyers have shied away from U.S. soybeans due to the 10% extra duty on U.S. products and the price premium. It's unclear whether state-owned Chinese companies get an exemption from the duty or some other compensation to fund the purchases of U.S. soybeans.
On the other hand, overall exports are way down this year. The industry has become more reliant on processing soybeans in the U.S. for biofuel and other uses. The reliance on Chinese purchase commitments also leaves the industry guessing about "what China will do", i.e. what Chinese state-owned companies will decide about buying American soybeans.
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