China's swine producers have cut their sow herd 10.7% over the past year, but pork output during Q3 was still up from a year ago. Downward pressure on pork prices persisted. Producer prices for hogs were down nearly 20% from a year ago.
China's inventory of productive sows was 36.02 million head at the end of Q3 2026, down 10.7% from a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. This is 4% below the agriculture ministry's target of 37.5 million. The sow herd is 10 million head smaller than its peak in 2021, and it has not been this small since 2020 during the recovery from the African swine fever epidemic. The overall swine inventory was down 2.6% from a year ago, reaching 425.33 million at the end of Q3.
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| China National Bureau of Statistics |
The reduction in sows has not yet led to a reduction in China's pork output. Calculations using the Bureau's data releases show that pork output has exceeded year-earlier output in each of the first three quarters of 2026. Q3 2026 pork output was 3% above year-earlier output.
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| Calculated from National Bureau of Statistics data. |
Heavier hogs contributed most of the year-over-year increase in pork output. The number of hogs slaughtered during Q3 was up 0.7% year-over-year, but the average carcass weight calculated from the Bureau's data increased 2.3%.
| China's quarterly pork output, 2025-26 | |||
| Hog slaughter | |||
| 2025 | 2026 | Yoy | |
| Million head | Percent | ||
| Q1 | 194.76 | 200.26 | 2.8 |
| Q2 | 171.43 | 172.20 | 0.4 |
| Q3 | 163.73 | 164.93 | 0.7 |
| Q4 | 189.81 | NA | |
| Pork output | |||
| Million metric tons | Percent | ||
| Q1 | 16.02 | 16.69 | 4.2 |
| Q2 | 14.18 | 14.5 | 2.3 |
| Q3 | 13.48 | 13.89 | 3.0 |
| Q4 | 15.7 | NA | |
| Carcass weight | |||
| Kilograms per head | Percent | ||
| Q1 | 82.3 | 83.3 | 1.3 |
| Q2 | 82.7 | 84.2 | 1.8 |
| Q3 | 82.3 | 84.2 | 2.3 |
| Q4 | 82.7 | NA | |
| Calculated from National Bureau of Statistics releases. | |||
Poultry output grew three times faster than pork output--at a blistering pace of 9.1% year-over-year in Q3 2026. Milk output grew 2.4% y-o-y, while beef output dropped -0.5%, egg output dropped -0.8%, and mutton output dropped -3.8%.
| Year-over-year growth in China's meat, egg and milk output, by quarter, 2026 | ||||||
| Quarter | Pork | Poultry | Beef | Mutton | Eggs | Milk |
| Percent change from previous year | ||||||
| Q1 | 4.2 | 9.4 | -1.0 | -2.8 | -3.1 | 3.4 |
| Q2 | 2.3 | 9.4 | -0.7 | -4.8 | -1.3 | 1.5 |
| Q3 | 3.0 | 9.1 | -0.5 | -3.8 | -0.8 | 2.4 |
| Calculated from National Bureau of Statistics releases. | ||||||
The Bureau reported that hog prices received by producers were down -19.2% year-over-year in Q3 2026. Poultry prices fell -0.9%. Cattle prices were up 6.7%, and egg prices shot up 25.8% from a year earlier.
The Bureau's CPI report showed that consumer prices for pork were down -10% year-over-year in September--the largest decrease of any item. Beef prices were up 7.5%, mutton prices were up 6.4%, and egg prices were up 14.3% year-over-year.
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