China imported 11.88 million metric tons of soybeans in September 2026, bringing the 2025/26 October-September market year total to 111.7 mmt. That's a 2.3-mmt increase from the previous year's 109.4 mmt.
Many commentators in China suggest that soybean imports are at or near their peak, but there is no sign of a peak yet. Data from China's customs database show increases in imports for each of the last four years, from 89.7 mmt in 2021/22 to 111.7 mmt in 2025/26. USDA's PS&D has different totals for several years, including a slightly higher estimate of 113 mmt for 2025/26, and USDA projects another increase to 115 mmt in 2026/27.
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| Orange line calculated from Chinese customs database. |
China's reliance on imported soybeans has remained stubbornly high at 83-to-84% each year since 2018/19 despite a strong push from Chinese authorities to reduce reliance on imported soybeans. With 20.9 mmt produced and 111.7 mmt imported during the 2025/26 market year, China imported 84% of its soybean supply. Import reliance was also 84% in 2024/25--up from 83% in 2021/22 and 2022/23.
| China's reliance on imported soybeans | |||
| Market year | Production | Imports | Imported share of supply |
| Million metric tons | Percent | ||
| 2015/16 | 12.4 | 83.9 | 87 |
| 2016/17 | 13.6 | 81.7 | 86 |
| 2017/18 | 15.3 | 92.1 | 86 |
| 2018/19 | 16.0 | 82.5 | 84 |
| 2019/20 | 18.1 | 98.5 | 84 |
| 2020/21 | 19.6 | 99.6 | 84 |
| 2021/22 | 16.4 | 89.7 | 85 |
| 2022/23 | 20.3 | 97.2 | 83 |
| 2023/24 | 20.8 | 104.7 | 83 |
| 2024/25 | 20.7 | 109.4 | 84 |
| 2025/26 | 20.9 | 111.7 | 84 |
| October-September market year. | |||
Brazil supplied 90% of China's September 2026 soybean imports with a total of 10.7 mmt. Argentina supplied 511,000 metric tons. Only 361,000 metric tons came from the U.S. Russia supplied 100,000 metric tons.
Imports from Brazil and Argentina increased during the 2025/26 marketing year to offset the drop in imports from the U.S. For the 2025/26 marketing year as a whole, Brazil supplied 75.6% of China's soybean imports with a total of 84.5 mmt, up 8.4 mmt from the previous marketing year. Argentina supplied 10.7 mmt (9.5%), up 5.9 mmt. Imports from the U.S.were down more than half from 24.4 mmt in the previous marketing year, but the United States was still the second-leading supplier during 2025/26, with 11.1 mmt (9.9% of the total).
| China's soybean imports from trading partners, market years 2024/25 and 2025/26 | ||
| Trading partner | 2024/25 | 2025/26 |
| Metric tons | ||
| Brazil | 76,107,940 | 84,460,883 |
| United States | 24,408,563 | 11,061,999 |
| Argentina | 4,766,465 | 10,654,614 |
| Uruguay | 2,443,347 | 2,472,818 |
| Canada | 1,185,866 | 1,846,079 |
| Russia | 450,323 | 1,122,829 |
| Ukraine | 18,144 | 72,536 |
| Ethiopia | 2,442 | 13,354 |
| Benin | 0 | 9,776 |
| Chile | 0 | <1 |
| China customs data. Market year October-September. | ||
U.S. soybean exports to China appear to be composed entirely of purchases by State-owned companies to fulfill the 12-mmt Chinese purchase commitment made at the October 2025 Busan summit. Chinese customs data shows that all imports of U.S. soybeans during the 2025/26 market year were made by companies headquartered in Beijing--an indicator that State-owned COFCO and/or Sinograin imported the U.S. beans.
According to USDA data, U.S. soybean exports to China for 2025/26 totaled 12.356 mmt--exceeding the 12-mmt commitment. However, only 10.7 mmt of U.S. soybeans arrived in China during the market year. September was 2 months after the last U.S. shipments to China in July (no U.S. exports to China were reported in August), plenty of time for those shipments to reach China. That suggests that 1.6 mmt of the soybeans (25 or more vessels) exported from the U.S. to China never cleared customs in China. Were they diverted to other countries? Stored offshore? Stuck in customs?
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| China Customs and USDA GATS databases. |
The pace of China's imports from Brazil in August and September also is puzzling. The pace of arrival of Brazilian soybeans in China looks consistent with the pace of exports from Brazil with a 2-month lag. The low point for Brazilian shipments to China was in January (just as Brazil's harvest began), corresponding to the March low point for China's imports of Brazilian soybeans. The April peak in Brazilian shipments to China also corresponds to the June peak in China's imports of Brazilian soybeans. The rebound in China's imports of Brazilian soybeans in August and September 2026 is out of step with month-to-month declines in Brazilian shipments since the peak month. The steeper decline in Brazilian shipments in August and September as Brazilian supplies shrink suggest that arrivals of Brazilian soybeans in China will show a corresponding decline in October and November.
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| Brazil Comex and China customs databases. |
The cost of China's soybean imports has increased this year. In September 2026 the average cost of China's imported soybeans was $498 per metric ton, 11.4% higher than the $447 average cost in September 2025. The cost bottomed out at $434 in June 2025, corresponding to peak shipments arriving from Brazil. The cost rose to $482 by December 2025 as Brazilian supplies became tight. There was much outrage on Chinese social media in September 2025 accusing Brazilians of price-gouging on soybeans. China was the main beneficiary of Argentina's temporary waiver of export taxes on soybeans last Fall. As shipments of another record harvest in Brazil revved up in 2026, the cost dipped again to $464 in May 2026. The cost rose again after the peak Brazilian shipping season, reaching $498 in September.
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| Calculated from China customs data. |
The cost of China's imports from Brazil varies seasonally, declining during the peak harvest season in Brazil during the Spring months and rising during the Winter. The average cost of soybeans imported from the U.S. has been comparatively steady since large arrivals began in February. Consequently, there was a large price premium for U.S. over Brazilian soybeans that maxed out at $30 per metric ton in June. The premium shrank to $11 in August and $5 in September.
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| International Grains Council |
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