Corn market bulls in the U.S. were disappointed that China made no commitment to buy American corn at the September summit meeting in Washington. Corn was the chief contributor to China's Phase One purchases in 2020-22, and many thought China would buy corn to fulfill its $17-billion purchase commitment this year. However, no agricultural commitment emerged from the meeting, just a pair of $30-billion spreadsheets and a promise to keep talking.
China's corn market is actually in a fragile state. Demand is weak, feed mills are buying cautiously, and Chinese corn prices are sinking as the new crop comes on the market. Modest volumes of imported sorghum and barley are already adding downward pressure on corn prices. The threat of plunging prices for the country's largest grain crop could deter China's negotiators from agreeing to purchases of American corn.
A September 29 article in the obscure State-run Grain & Oil News discussed weakness in the corn market as the new crop arrives in marketing channels, noting that attention was focused on progress of China-U.S. trade negotiations. The article commented that, "A significant increase in US corn exports to China could reshape the import landscape."
Chinese corn futures prices fell sharply during September as China's new corn crop came on the market. The November contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell 5.2% from RMB 2299 to RMB 2170 during September 8-21. Interestingly, Chinese corn stopped its slide during and after the Washington summit, recovering to RMB 2187 on September 30. The Chinese market closed for China's October 1 holiday week.
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| Dalian Commodity Exchange. |
Spot prices reported by China's Grain & Commodity Reserves Administration show the average corn procurement price accelerated its decline in September. The September 21 average of RMB 2200 was down RMB 37 from August and below the price level at this time last year. Prices have dropped under harvest pressure each of the last 3 years. Last year corn prices dropped during the harvest but soon began climbing after a month of rainfall severely damaged the crop in North China. This supply pressure could have inflated corn prices during 2025/26, and prices could be ready to take a deep dive as they did two years ago when prices dipped as low as RMB 1980 in January 2025.
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| China Administration of Food & Commodity Reserves. |
Grain & Oil News reported that the growing volume of newly harvested corn entering the market in Henan and Shandong Province in the North China region exerted seasonal pressure on prices. In the Northeastern region prices have crashed because buyers prefer corn from North China. (Last Fall buyers rushed to buy Northeastern corn when the quality problems were concentrated in Henan and Shandong.) Moisture has prompted Northeastern farmers to sell their corn immediately to prevent molding.
With prices falling, Chinese traders are clearing out corn inventories and buying cautiously. Feed mills are only buying what they need. Prices at Northeastern ports have been under pressure as new corn arrives from the hinterland for shipment, but the price spread between southern ports and Northeastern ports is narrow and expected to remain so. The price at the Jinzhou port in Liaoning Province is not high enough to recover the costs of procurement and shipment, discouraging purchases by traders.
During the last week of September, Grain & Oils News reported prices that were mostly below the September 21 average reported by the reserves administration in Northern and Northeastern regions. They reported weekly declines in corn prices at all four locations ranging from RMB -50 per ton to -100 per ton in Northeastern production areas, a northeastern port, North China production region, and a Southern port.
| Chinese corn prices, last week of September 2026 | ||
| Location | Late September price | Change from previous week |
| RMB per metric ton | ||
| Northeast region | NR | -50 to -80 |
| Jinzhou, Northeastern port | 2160-2170 | -62 |
| North China - Henan, Shandong | 2120-2280 | -30 to -100 |
| Guangdong Shekou port | 2390 | -50 to -80 |
| NR=not reported. Compiled from Grain & Oil News | ||
Most imported barley came from Australia and France. About half of the sorghum imported in August came from the U.S. while the other half came from Argentina and Australia. Most corn imports came from Argentina. Grain & Oil News said the theoretical import margin for U.S. corn was RMB -84 per metric ton, discouraging any purchases.
It's doubtful that Beijing's Commerce Ministry negotiators know much about the corn market's current state--I had to dig it out from obscure corners of the Chinese internet--but Beijing authorities may be aware of general weakness in grain prices and the threat of unrest from disgruntled peasants. This week's discussion of food security strategy published in many State media outlets included the new buzzword of "tight balance" for corn and promises to keep grain prices at reasonable levels to ensure grain farming is profitable (as well as admonitions to local officials to prevent declines in grain output). Grain & Oils News commented that Northeastern corn farmers need prices to remain high enough to cover high land rents this year. The Food & Commodity Reserves Administration's Autumn grain procurement meeting last month promised to buy grain for reserves and "guide" companies to buy grain in regions with weak prices in order to stabilize the market.
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