The 2026 China Agricultural Development Report released on June 10 had a theme of "Launching the 15th Five-Year Plan: Structural Transformation and Optimized Trade" that peddled the priority of upgrading the "quality" of the Chinese diet, farm machinery and technology, agricultural imports and exports during the 2026-2030 five-year plan. The report was written by PhD economists, includes input from a prestigious international institute based in Washington, and it is littered with buzz words and mathematical modeling. But the report's guiding concept is the notion that a resource-stressed country should try to produce all the farm products it consumes and simultaneously export more of them.
A summary of the report in Farmers Daily emphasized foreign trade and self-sufficiency, noting that China had an agricultural trade deficit of $103.25 billion in 2025 on agricultural exports of $104.16 billion and ag imports of $207.41 billion. China was the world's top ag importer and the fifth-largest ag exporter. The report described China's agricultural trade as entering a stage of stable volume, structural shifts, and mounting pressure.
The report singled out several prominent problems: pressure from beef imports, adjustments in the dairy sector forced by falling milk prices, depressed grain prices due to rising rice imports (not true), and tilapia exports that were less robust than hoped. The report celebrated a recent transition to net exporter of chicken and development of its own broiler chicken breed that breaks the industry's 100% reliance on imports of broiler genetics.
China's core food security concern is maintaining self-sufficiency in staple foods wheat and rice, but the report predicts that consumption of wheat will fall by 7 million metric tons and consumption of rice will fall by 4.3 mmt over the 5-year period. China's reliance on feed grain imports will continue due to rigid growth in consumption of meat and fish/seafood products. Analysts expect poultry to drive growth in meat consumption. The report noted that per-capita consumption of dairy and vegetables is still about half of recommended levels in dietary guidelines issued by the government. The assertion that vegetable consumption in China is too low seems implausible. The report also highlights vegetables as one of China's chief agricultural exports with potential for growth.
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| Official data show steady historical growth in poultry but it is not the main driver. |
The report predicts marginal growth in self-sufficiency for several commodities that are highly reliant on imports. Self-sufficiency for soybeans will grow from 15.8% to 21.5%. Self-sufficiency rates for edible oils will rise by 2.1 percentage points and for dairy products will rise only 1.7 percentage points. The report commented that self-sufficiency for beef, cotton, and sugar faces challenges that have not been fundamentally resolved.
For products that China is import-reliant--including soybeans, barley, and sorghum--the report calls for a multi-pronged effort to expand domestic production, promote low-protein feed technologies to reduce use of these commodities in feeds, and to develop new sources of imports through the Belt and Road Initiative to secure sources of "quality imports" and "reduce reliance on any single country." (including Brazil?)
On the production side, the report emphasizes mechanization as a key factor that will increase grain output by 10 million metric tons. The five-year plan has a target of 80% mechanization of crop cultivation, seeding, and harvest. The report points to "agricultural mechanization service centers" as an innovative institution that will help small-scale farmers achieve mechanization, and the need to develop equipment for hilly and mountainous areas.
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| Photo from a farm cooperative's listing on an online agricultural services platform. |
The report calls for increases in China's agricultural exports through improvements in quality and building brands for products with strong potential such as vegetables, eggs, and potatoes. It calls for building cold-chain facilities, producing higher value-added products, and extending supply chains to rural areas.
The report is a joint product of the Institute of Agricultural Economics of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the Washington-based International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), one of a series of global agricultural research organizations. The full report does not appear to be available online or outside of China. This report has a lower profile and a stronger analytical foundation than the China Agricultural Outlook Report released each April by another CAAS institute of agricultural information.
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