Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

Dozens of Chinese news reports have called attention to high tomato prices over the past month. The large number of similar reports coming out at the same time is an effort to shape public opinion about the Government's control of prices, heading off any discontent that could lead to social instability during a sensitive time.  Chinese news media are not free to report on any trend or events they deem to be important. This blog has previously discussed how China's  State-controlled media is expected to shape public opinion . The large number of articles appearing at the same time, using the same language indicates that articles on tomato prices represent a coordinated effort by propaganda authorities to address this issue.  The tomato price reports seem to have begun in mid-December with an article in  Southern Daily   noting vigorous discussion over whether vegetables have become unaffordable . Since then, dozens of articles have appeared in news outlets a...

China has met its 12-million-ton U.S. soybean purchase commitment, according to  reports by Reuters  and other Western news media--based mostly on USDA reports of sales to China since the October 30 Trump-Xi meeting.  U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent declar ed in Davos, Switzerland that he was assured by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng that China had met the commitment.  The commitment has been met largely (perhaps entirely) by State-owned Chinese companies buying beans at inflated prices to stock Government reserves, an indication that the Chinese Government is making an effort to please the Americans. However, the Chinese Government has never acknowledged the commitment. Back in November 2025 China's Ministry of Commerce  refused to acknowledge  that the soybean purchase commitments had been made. So far this week, the news of about fulfillment of the purchase commitment is mostly absent from Chinese news sites reporting on soybeans. Reports could come...

China's 2025 agricultural production data shows meat output grew 4.2%, exceeding 100 million metric tons for the first time, while grain output grew 1.2% to 714.88 mmt. Soybeans stood out with growing imports during 2025, but most of China's other agricultural imports went down. Most agricultural prices also went down, reflecting an economy that appears weaker than the 5% GDP growth reported for 2025. Meat output growth featured 4.1% growth in pork output, 6.7% growth in poultry, and 2.8% growth in beef, according to the China National Bureau of Statistics preliminary data release for 2025 . Milk production grew marginally, and production of eggs and mutton fell. This blog previously reported the Bureau's report of a record grain harvest and 7.7-percent increase in cotton output . Trade data released by the customs administration show imports of wheat, corn and cotton plummeted during calendar year 2025. Imported soybeans rose 6.5 percent last year to 111.83 mmt, compris...

China imported 111.8 million metric tons (mmt) of soybeans in calendar year 2025, a record high. Imports were up 6.78 mmt from 105 mmt in CY2024. China's 2025 soybean imports were valued at $50.35 billion. Imports for December 2025 were 8.04 mmt, down just 70,000 metric tons from the previous month and about the same as a year earlier. Compiled from China customs data. The unit value of December imports was $482 per metric ton, the highest monthly value of the year. The unit value has increased 11% since June's $434 per metric ton (the year's lowest value). Imports have declined each month since September, reflecting shrinking supplies of Brazilian soybeans. Monthly imports will likely shrink again in January-February. However, China's monthly soybean imports equaled or exceeded year-earlier same-month imports in each month from May to December of 2025.  Compiled from China customs data. Chinese customs has not yet released detailed data for December 2025 showing source...

China's commerce officials blamed surging imports for a decline in beef prices to justify "safeguard" tariffs on imported beef announced last week . In fact, gyrations in Chinese beef prices were due to destabilizing events in China's own market.  Chinese officials suggested that a rising trend in beef imports drove down beef prices during 2019-2024. In fact, 2019-24 was a 6-year-long beef bubble that inflated and then popped. The phony "analysis" by China's Commerce Ministry ignored the inverted-U-shaped pattern of prices: the average price of beef reported by China's Ag Ministry rose 20% from RMB 73.20 per KG in 2024 to a peak of RMB 87.59 in 2022. Then the price fell 18% to RMB 71.89 in 2024. During 2019-2022 China's beef imports AND its domestic prices both increased, undermining the claim that rising imports caused prices to fall. Beef imports then stabilized between 2022 and 2024. Prices declined sharply in 2024, but the increase in imports...