Soy Imports from Brazil in Seasonal Lull; Slide in Market Prices Suggests Spring Rebound

China's soybean imports dipped to 8.1 million metric tons in November 2025, and the calendar year total for January-November hit 103.79 mmt. November 2025 imports were up from 7.15 mmt from a year ago, and January-November 2025 imports are up from last year's pace of 97.1 mmt during the same period.

November's import volume was the second monthly decline in a row, reflecting seasonal decline in shipments from Brazil. In November China imported 5.85 mmt from Brazil, down from nearly 11 mmt in September 2025. Brazil supplied 72% of China's November soybean imports. Imports from Argentina increased marginally to 1.78 mmt in November, while imports from Canada increased slightly to 16,630 metric tons. Imports from Uruguay, Russia and Ukraine dropped in November. China had no imports of U.S. soybeans during November. The first shipments of U.S. beans since the resumption of purchases last month likely will show up in Chinese customs data in January. 

Compiled from China Customs data.

Compiled from China Customs data.

Soybean imports from Brazil have been rising in price as its shipping season winds down. The average value per ton of Brazilian soybeans arriving in China bottomed out at $431 per ton in June and has since risen to $474 per ton in November, a cumulative increase of 9.8%. This is consistent with Brazilian customs data which shows a rise from $384 per ton shipped to China in April to $436 per ton shipped in November, a cumulative increase of 13.6%. (There is a 2-month lag between Brazilian shipments and arrivals in China, so the increases in Brazilian beans during October-November will be reflected in China's December-January import data.)

Compiled from China and Brazil customs data.

During December Brazilian prices have been declining again as prospects of another record soybean crop in Brazil solidify. Brazil's Paranaguá FOB quote peaked at about $12.40 per bushel at the end of November, a slight premium over the U.S. Gulf price. Since then, the Paranaguá quote has fallen below $10.50 per bu. CBOT and U.S. Gulf FOB quotes fell in parallel as euphoria over underwhelming Chinese purchases deflated and prospects for the upcoming Brazilian were strengthened by weather and planting progress. Paranaguá FOB fell marginally below U.S. Gulf quotes last week. Chinese estimates of CNF costs followed a similar pattern.  

Compiled from International Grains Council web site.

Beans from the upcoming Brazil harvest will likely begin pouring into China and appear in April-May Chinese customs data in a big way. As this blog previously reported, China is dumping some reserves into the domestic market to make way for imported U.S. beans (buyers are to take delivery by March-April). Chinese ports and crushers have some inventories and soy meal inventories are also high. China's markets for meal and oil are already glutted, but final demand will soften after the mid-February Chinese New Year holiday. That could shape up for another steep drop in prices next Spring.

2nd Auction Sells 323,000 tons of Imported Soybeans to Make Room for U.S. Purchases

Sinograin's second auction of imported soybeans on December 16 received a less enthusiastic response than the December 11 auction. The percentage of beans sold declined to 62% and the average price declined to RMB 3852 per metric ton. A cumulative 720,000 metric tons have been sold in the first two auctions. 

Chinese commentary attributes the auctions to Sinograin's need to relieve storage pressure as large volumes of U.S. soybeans purchased are expected to arrive. It also cites a need to generate funds for purchases of American soybeans. The second objective will be challenging if Sinograin has to pay off loans that financed purchase of these soybeans at peak prices 2-to-3 years ago.

The next auction is scheduled for December 19 when 550,000 metric tons will be offered. The auctions are composed predominantly of soybeans imported during years of much higher prices in 2022 and 2023. Auctions of imported soybeans held in March also featured soybeans from 2022-23, but auctions held earlier this year during summer months offered beans from last year and this year.

The first two auctions in December featured soybeans stored in Shandong Province and Tianjian Municipality. Next week's auction will offer a larger volume of soybeans stored in Hunan, Liaoning, and Sichuan Provinces. Fewer soybeans are being offered in Shandong and none in Tianjin.

China Auctions Reserves to Make Way for U.S. Soybean Purchases

The U.S. soybeans "China" has been buying over the last two months will apparently go directly into China's State reserve. Old beans are being auctioned off from reserves to make room for the new beans. The old beans are being offered to processors at bargain prices to give them some relief from negative margins as they await the arrival of another monster Brazilian crop that will drive market prices down again.

On December 11 China auctioned 512,500 metric tons of imported soybeans from its State reserves to make room for U.S. soybeans that China has been buying to fulfill its part of the U.S.-China trade agreement reached in October. This was the first in a series of auctions to be held over coming weeks to clear space for American soybeans China has been buying to fulfill the soybean purchase pledge made in late October. A second auction will be held tomorrow (December 16), offering another 513,884 metric tons. Chinese traders think the total amount auctioned over coming weeks will total about 4 million metric tons.

The December 11 auction sold 397,043 metric tons (77.5% of the beans offered) at an average price of RMB 3,935 (about $558) per ton. Some of the auctioned beans sold for prices as high as RMB 4,040 per ton. In comparison, the average price for imported soybeans reported by Shanghai Mysteel was RMB 4,220 in the first week of December. 

The auctioned beans were offered mostly in lots of about 10,000 to 45,000 metric tons scattered across 8 Chinese provinces. About half of the beans offered are located in Shandong Province and Tianjin Municipality. Others were in Liaoning, Sichuan, Hebei, Henan, Hunan and Zhejiang Provinces. Buyers must take delivery of the beans between December 20 and March 2026. 

The auction news suggests that newly purchased U.S. beans will be stockpiled in China's reserves. This is consistent with reports that nearly all Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans have been made by COFCO--China's State-trading enterprise for grains and oilseeds--which imports on behalf of Sinograin. The 4-million-ton total expected for the auctions is close to the volume of sales of U.S. soybeans to China announced since late October. 

China's extra 10-percent tariff on U.S. beans still prevents them from being commercially viable for imports by private sector buyers. Presumably, COFCO/Sinograin imports are either exempt from the tariff or an accounting trick washes it out.

The displaced old beans released from reserves via auctions are being sold to crushing enterprises and feed mills. Sinograin has not revealed the origin (e.g. U.S. or Brazil) of the old reserves being released.

Sinograin lost money on the December 11 auction. The beans auctioned had been produced -- and presumably imported -- in 2022 and 2023 when soybean prices were at their peak. Based on customs data, I calculate that the average cost of importing the 512,500 soybeans offered for auction was $659 per ton, which exceeds the average sale price (at the current exchange rate) of $558 per ton. Thus, Sinograin sold 397,000 metric tons of soybeans at $101 less than they paid for them, a loss of over $40 million. Additionally, I estimate that interest cost on the beans could be $68 per ton and the storage cost could be $41 per ton, a total cost of $210 per metric ton. The total loss on the auction could have been at least $83 billion.

(It is unclear whether Sinograin paid tariffs (3%) and value added taxes (10%) on the imported soybeans it is releasing from reserves. It is also unclear what happens to the 112,500 tons of unsold beans -- if they failed to sell on December 11 at a bargain price, why would they sell in a future auction? If the unsold beans have to be written off, their acquisition cost of $74 million would be an additional loss.)

Sinograin will incur similar losses on the December 16 auction which will offer mostly 2022 beans (487,000 metric tons) and about 13,000 tons each from 2023 and 2024. The regional distribution of the Dec. 16 beans is similar to those offered last week. 

Chinese authorities are orchestrating these auctions and imports to satisfy crushing demand for beans while insulating the domestic soybean crop--now being marketed--from lower international prices. 

The Chinese market built up stockpiles of beans and meal during summer and early fall months when imports exceeded monthly crush. China's monthly soybean imports dropped from 12.9 mmt in September to 9.5 mmt in October, and 8.1 mmt in November. Over those same months the average cost of imported soybeans indicated by customs data ratcheted up from $447 per ton to $467 per ton.

Crush is still running at a torrid pace but now exceeds monthly imports. In November crush was estimated at 9 million metric tons (830,000 tons more than November last year). Crush is estimated to reach 8.6 million tons in December (up 400,000 tons from a year ago). Crushing margins appear to be negative, a problem that is exacerbated by increases in costs of imported soybeans. Thus, the auction of cheap beans from reserves supplements the shrinking flow of imports and constitutes a subsidy to keep crushers from seeing their negative margins grow even bigger.

Meanwhile, China's own soybean crop is being marketed. Authorities hope to nudge domestic soybean prices higher. The price of domestic beans exceeds the price of imported beans, so no auctions of reserves were held in main production areas of Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Inner Mongolia. They probably want to slow the pace of imports while the domestic crop is being marketed to keep the general level of prices up.

Market news reports say Chinese customs authorities are also preparing to slow-walk inspections of imported soybeans, extending the time needed for customs clearance to 25 days. Authorities previously delayed inspections during the first months of 2025, then returned to normal when Brazilian beans began arriving in April.

China 2025 Grain Output Data; Corn Accounts For Most of Increase

China produced another record grain crop of 714.88 million metric tons (mmt) in 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Production increased 8.38 mmt (+1.2%) from last year. As usual, corn accounted for most of the increase. The Bureau acknowledged the impact of mold on the Fall harvest but the statisticians have no way of measuring how much mold and resulting aflatoxins will impact the effective supply of corn this year.

Corn production was estimated at 301.235 mmt for 2025, and this year's 6.32 mmt increase in corn output accounted for most of the increase in grain output. Rice production (209 mmt in 2025) increased 1.5 mmt from last year. Wheat production (140 mmt) decreased slightly (-250,000 metric tons). 

Compiled from China National Bureau of Statistics.

Most of the increase in grain output was achieved by increasing average yields by 66 kg per hectare (up 1.1%) over the previous year. Grain area expanded 90,000 hectares (up 0.1%). There was a slight shift toward corn area (up 0.5%) but increases in corn yield (up 108 kg per hectare, +0.5%) accounted for most of the increase in corn output. The Bureau said that the increased area planted in corn (which has a relatively high yield) contributed to the increase in overall grain output. The Bureau noted that northeastern provinces (the main corn-producing area) contributed most of the increase in grain output.

The NBS corn output figure was even larger than the 300 mmt previously estimated by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs CASDE earlier this week. The NBS soybean output figure almost exactly matches the MARA estimate. 

The Bureau's lead agricultural statistician attributed the bumper harvest to "strict protection of grain area and food security responsibility by each region," "overcoming impacts of drought, floods and other natural disasters," and "no slacking off on grain production work." According to the Bureau, policy support mobilized farmers and local officials to keep a tight hold on grin production: 

• continuing to raise the support price for wheat and early rice, 
• improving each kind of subsidy policy, 
• expanding full-cost and income insurance, 
• launching a mechanism for grain deficit regions to compensate grain surplus regions, and 
• increased financial support for grain-producing counties. 
• Local authorities have strengthened protection of grain land, shifted the mix of crops, carried out land rectifications, increased the use of abandoned land and reclaimed unused land.

This blog previously discussed the impact on rains in September-October, showed images of fields and ears of corn, and discussed how the effective supply of corn has been reduced despite the "bumper harvest." The Bureau could not dodge this issue, and its report acknowledged that continuous heavy rains in the Huang-Huai Hai region of northern China caused molding that affected grain production "to a certain degree." The Bureau claimed that after taking into account the impact of mold on output fall-harvested grain output still grew by 8.2 mmt (+1.5%). The Bureau did not reveal the impact of mold on grain output, nor how they estimated it. The Bureau's surveys weigh grains cut from fields before harvest. The high degree of moisture would have increased the weight of crops. They have no way of knowing which fields were not harvested nor how much grain was dried or developed mold post-harvest.

Ecological Police to Make Rural China Beautiful Again

China is setting up an ecological police system (生态警务机制) that combines citizen surveillance with law enforcement and prosecution to crack down on "environmental and resource crimes" as a strategy for beautifying the countryside. 

The system is led by the Ministry of Public Security--highlighting the focus on law enforcement--in conjunction with the Ministry of Justice, the central government's planning ministry, and ministries responsible for environment, agriculture, water management, grasslands, forests, and the coast guard. The plan set forth in an "Opinion on Building an Ecological Police Mechanism" (关于加强生态警务机制建设的意见 which does not seem to be publicly available) aims to have the basic mechanism in place by 2027 and fully operational by 2035. 

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said the policing system will severely punish environmental pollution, destruction of wild flora and fauna resources, damage to ancient and famous trees, illegal fishing, illegal mining of mineral resources, illegal extraction of river sand and gravel, and illegal occupation of agricultural land. The Opinion promises to investigate and coordinate large-scale strikes on professional violators, organized crime, and interregional exploitation schemes.

Building on experiments by localities over the last several years, localities will be encouraged to designate river and lake police chiefs (河湖警长), forest police chiefs (林警长), and ecological police chiefs (生态警长). Law enforcement officials will link up with officials responsible for watching fishing, mining, farming, forests, and other resources in "ecological policing joint operation centers" (生态警务联勤中心) and "joint operation workstations" (联勤工作站). Local prosecutors are included in the mechanism to ensure that perpetrators are prosecuted. 

"River-Lake Chief + Police Chief + Prosecutor" officials in Ganzhou, Jiangxi Province
gather for a photo-op

An example is a "River-Lake Chief + Police Chief + Prosecutor" (河湖长+警长+检察长) mechanism set up in Shicheng County, a district of Ganzhou Municipality in Jiangxi Province. A coordination meeting held 3 years ago was led by the county public security bureau and prosecutorial office with participation by the county branch of the environmental protection bureau, forestry bureau and river chiefs from each township in the county. The deputy director of the public security bureau reported that 7 cases of illegal fishing and 34 cases of illegal hunting of wildlife had been filed during the year, 17 people had been disciplined, and authorities had seized 100 wild animals, 100 kg of fish, and 300 hunting implements.

Farmland is one of the resources monitored with this system. This blog previously reported on "field captains" (田长, I previously translated as "field boss") established several years ago to monitor use of farmland. Some localities have implemented a "Field Captain + Prosecutor + Police Chief" system that relies on field captains to monitor land use, while public security and prosecutorial organs provide law enforcement powers to punish violators. The so-called "iron triangle" is meant to maintain rural stability, rule villages by law, and resolve land and ecological protection disputes and strengthen public security management.

River chiefs meet with prosecutors

A description of the "Field Captain + Police Chief + Prosecutor" system in Fangcheng, Guangxi Province said work focused on farmland protection, crackdowns on illegal mining, and restoration of abandoned mines. In Liaoning Province's Anshan City the system was set up to detect and punish shoddy construction of "high standard fields." In Zhaoqing, Guangdong Province the system led to the arrest of people who converted farmland to fish ponds. 

It is unlikely that this system will work since it requires cooperation and coordination among 10 different organizations as well as coordination between rural, municipal and provincial officials. The ratio of organizational effort to benefits for officials seems high. One thing it does demonstrate is that China's vague and incomplete assignment of property rights inevitably leads to ever-increasing degrees of surveillance and application of force by the State. 

Mold is Tightening China's Corn Market

This month Chinese statisticians will probably report a record 2025 corn crop, but a significant portion of the harvest is unusable. Continuous heavy rain during September and October flooded fields in some of the leading production areas of the North China Plain region, preventing equipment from harvesting some fields and caused mold and sprouting on corn that was harvested. While Chinese news media have been showing photos of giant corn drying facilities to allay concerns about mold, social media showed some farmers scrubbing corn cobs to remove mold. A screenshot from another Chinese video below shows an individual spraying piles of corn to kill mold.

Farmer attempts to scrub mold off corn cobs.

Spraying corn to kill mold

China's corn futures prices dropped 4.6% during September and early October following what appeared to be another "bumper harvest." News of the impact of heavy rains on the north China corn crop spread in mid-October, and the price rose 7.3% from late October to early December. 

Daily closing prices on Dalian Commodity Exchange.

The impacts of mold are gradually filtering into various segments of China's corn market. Tightness first showed up in regions of North China like Shandong Province that were heavily impacted by rains. Prices did not fall steeply after harvest in Shandong. In North China, according to some reports 70% of the corn offered on the market is high in moisture and unusable for animal feed. Meanwhile, northeastern provinces Jilin and Heilongjiang had a bumper corn harvest with few quality problems. Jilin and Heilongjiang prices did fall after harvest in October, although the decline was brief as prices turned up in November. Now some feed mills in North China are purchasing local wheat or high-quality corn from the Northeast to augment the limited supply of high-quality corn. The interregional movement of corn, however, has been impeded by tight supplies of rail cars and snowfall. There is some speculation that increased sales by northeastern farmers at the end of December could ease upward pressure on prices.

Source: China National Grain and Oils Information Center, reported by FAO GIEWS database.

Relatively soft final demand also eases upward pressure on corn prices. Southern feed companies--seeing signs of a downturn in the livestock sector--are cautious in building up inventories. Still, some feed companies are reportedly seeking lower-priced alternative grains and have begun inquiring about imported barley and sorghum. A rebound in imports of feed grains in Q1 2026 is possible.

The downturn in Chinese corn prices this year was less pronounced and briefer than it was a year ago during the 2024 harvest. Last year's plunging prices continued a lengthy decline in Chinese corn prices that began in 2023 and surely alarmed Chinese officials who constantly fret over potential rural unrest and collapse in grain output. Grain imports were abruptly shut down in August 2024. With minimal imports, Chinese corn prices rebounded early this year as the domestic marketing season passed its peak. Chinese officials may be happy that this year's rains prevented corn prices from falling as far as last year.  

Monthly averages through November 2025

Chinese officials never announced a tightening of corn import controls. Just before grain imports suddenly plunged in August last year an Economic Daily commentator whose articles echo official grain policy carefully explained how the tariff rate quota system limits imports of grains and asserted that the country needed to do a good job on storing and importing grain in order to strengthen prices for farmers. China's corn imports during the first 10 months of 2025 are down about 90% from a year earlier and lower than at any time this decade. China's feedtrade.com.cn reports that imported grains still have a price advantage in southern Chinese ports, but it also reports that stocks of imported grain are adequate.

China customs data, calendar years.

China's monthly imports of corn this year have been erratic from all suppliers except Russia which has supplied corn to China in 9 of 10 months. Top suppliers of China's corn this year are Brazil (540,000mt), Russia (333,000mt), Ukraine (231,000mt), and Myanmar (144,000mt). China has only imported 20,000 mt of corn from the U.S. in 2025, but this is not a concern since USDA export inspections indicate that U.S. corn exports for the current market year are on a record pace and about 7.9 million metric tons ahead of last year.

Are China's low and erratic feed grain imports in 2025 a return to normal for China? Or was the sustained import of 40-to-50 million metric tons annually during 2021-24 the "normal" that will be restored in the future?