Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

Most commentary leading up to today's Trump-Xi meeting seems to ascertain that China doesn't need U.S. soybeans. Beneath the surface, though, Chinese soybean buyers are showing signs of angst as they pile up financial losses and look longingly at U.S. soybeans that are substantially cheaper than the Brazilian beans that have comprised 80-to-90% of their supplies since May. Cracks are appearing in the seemingly cozy China-Brazil soybean relationship as Chinese buyers try to scarf up as many beans as possible from the shrinking Brazilian supply. China purchased 180,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans  this week -- probably meant as a show of good will ahead of today's inconclusive Trump-Xi meeting. The only signal to markets from the meeting itself was President Trump's vague assurance that Xi has authorized  "massive" Chinese purchases of American soybeans .  Chinese crushing plants have been processing about 9-to-10 million metric tons of soybeans monthly since r...

A country with a bad food safety record aspires to lead a new approach to setting food safety practices in international trade. This is part of China's plan to leverage its Belt & Road Initiative in order to boost its influence in setting international rules, standards, and inspection practices. So far, it's off to a slow start. On October 15, China's customs administration held a meeting  of its 2-year-old "Import & Export Food Safety Cooperation Mechanism for the Countries of the Belt and Road Initiative" in Shanghai with participants from food agencies and embassies of 21 Belt and Road countries.  Director General of the Customs Administration Sun Meijun stated that China's customs administration is willing to work with food safety authorities of all countries to collaborate on food safety regulation and promote safer and more efficient trade in food and agricultural products. At the meeting member countries affirmed the "Shanghai Declaration o...

U.S. soybean exports to non-China destinations have increased 45% year-over-year in the first 7 weeks of the 2025/26 marketing year. But that growth made only a slight dent in offsetting the lost demand from China's boycott of U.S. beans. Analysis of USDA export inspection data for September through October 16--the first 7 weeks of the 2025/26 market year--shows that exports are overall down -2.5 million metric tons from the same period in 2024. Sifting through the USDA database shows that exports to China during this period last year were 4.2 mmt versus 0 this year. Exports to non-China destinations were 3.8 mmt in the first 7 weeks of MY2024/25, but they increased to 5.5 mmt so far in 2025/26. That's a year-on-year increase of 1.7 mmt, or 45%, but plugs less than half of the 4.2-mmt hole left by China's snub of U.S. beans.  Most of the top overseas markets for U.S. soybeans have increased their purchases. The U.S. has exported soybeans to 34 destinations so far in MY 2025...

It's confirmed that Brazilian beans continued to almost single-handedly sustain China's soybean supply during September 2025--and actually increased supplies from the previous month. However, China probably cannot sustain its supplies year-round without importing U.S. soybeans. The Brazilian beans arriving in September represent the end of Brazil's peak shipping season. Brazilian shipments to China began to drop in August and September, which probably means Chinese supplies will begin to shrink in October and November. While Brazil is expected to have another monster harvest beginning in January, the new Brazilian beans probably won't clear Chinese customs until April. As reported last week, China's September 2025 soybean imports increased by 592,000 metric tons from the previous month to reach 12.87 million metric tons (mmt). Detailed customs data confirm that China's imports of Brazilian soybeans increased by 476,000 mt in September, accounting for most of the...

The food component of China's CPI for September 2025 was down -4.4% from a year ago, while the nonfood component was up 0.7%, according to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics . The overall CPI was down -0.3% from a year ago. Prices were down from a year ago for most food categories. Pork (-17%), vegetables (-13.7%), and eggs (-11.9%) stood out with the largest year-over-year declines in price. Fresh fruit (-4.2%), edible oils and milk (both -1.4%) and grains (-0.7%) were also down year-over-year.  While food prices in September were down from a year ago, prices were up 0.7% from the previous month (August). Vegetables, eggs, and fruit were up from the previous month. The Food CPI is cyclical. This month's year-over-year declines reflect a reversal of increases that occurred a year ago, especially for pork and vegetables. A year ago, China's Food CPI was up +3.3% in September 2024, and it was down -3.2% in September 2023. Pork, in particular, remains highly cyclica...

  College students harvesting corn in the rain near Jinan, Shandong. Source: Jinan Times . October 1, a student saw this when he returned home to Qi County, Kaifeng City, Henan Province. Source: Huoxing Caijing . Farmer prays for his 200 mu of corn soaked by rain. Frame from Douyin video. Moldy corn in Henan Province. Grandpa spent RMB600 per mu to grow corn and can sell it for RMB 1 per kilogram. Douyin video frame. Drying corn on the roadside in northern Anhui Province. Douyin video frame. Combine harvesting in a flooded field. Douyin video frame.

 China's swine industry is struggling with an epidemic of Getah Virus, also known as GETV (盖塔病毒). One video posted on Chinese social media calls GETV "The biggest crisis since African swine fever."  The mosquito-borne virus can infect entire farms, causing diarrhea, staggering movements, and discoloration of skin. It causes sows to abort and reduces survival rates of weaned piglets. An article appearing in mid-September reported that the virus had been detected on pig farms in Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangxi, Henan, and Sichuan Provinces. It has also appeared in Hebei. Most information about the current outbreak comes from farmers posting short videos on Douyin (China's Tick Tock) about GETV outbreaks and sharing guidance for avoiding it. Videos posted as recently as yesterday show barns filled with dead pigs, excavators dumping live pigs into burial pits, sows with blotches on their skin, and pigs staggering around a pen. Thumbnails of v ideos about GETV outbreaks poste...

China's corn prices have been under downward pressure, but there are early signs of a turnaround in the market due to quality problems in the northern plain region.  On October 14, the Dalian futures price closed at RMB 2093 per metric ton, down 5.5% from its September 8 peak. China Dalian Commodity Exchange.   A Feed Industry Information Net report today  reported the national average cash price for corn was RMB 2,201.70, down 4.19% from a week earlier. The increased volume of new corn coming on the market is driving down prices, the report said. The agriculture ministry estimates that the corn harvest is more than 50% complete. Corn output estimated to be up this year due to a slight increase in area and yield improvements achieved by a nationwide campaign to raise grain yields that was declared by the communist party's "Document No. 1." Buying is cautious despite a stubbornly high swine inventory and August feed output of 20.36 million metric tons that was up 3.7%...

China imported 12.9 million metric tons (mmt) of soybeans in September 2025, according to summary data released by the customs administration. The import total was up from the previous month's 12.3-mmt total, and it was the 2nd-highest-ever monthly volume after May's 13.9 mmt.  China is still importing nearly all of its soybeans from Brazil, a pattern that surely continued in September. China has not yet released detailed data that will reveal the source of beans imported in September, but it is surprising that imports increased from the previous month with South American supplies shrinking after the Southern Hemisphere marketing season passed its seasonal peak.  The chart below shows that China's monthly fluctuations in imports have reflected changes in imports from Brazil over the last 2 years. Last year China's imports from Brazil peaked in August and began declining month-to-month by 2-mmt during Sept-Nov. This year imports from Brazil peaked in May at 12.1 mmt and ...

"Wet soil and waterlogged farmland have hindered the movement of agricultural machinery, negatively impacting harvesting, drying, and clearing stubble for wheat sowing," according to official Chinese news media . The Xinhua report proclaimed, "We must unite our efforts to protect autumn crops and strive to overcome disasters and achieve a bumper harvest!" A Xinhua reporter claimed to see crawler-type harvesters working nonstop. Source:  Xinhua . A special meeting on agricultural insurance indemnities  was held on October 10 to consider how to speed up insurance payments to farmers impacted by heavy rains in the Huang-Huai region of northern China. The meeting was held to address complaints about slow processing of agricultural insurance claims and low payouts. Insurance companies were instructed to expedite claims, use remote sensing and drones to verify losses, pay the full amount promptly, and ensure that grain is harvested and dried.  The meeting was convened joi...

Grain harvesting equipment can't get into muddy fields and the corn crop is at risk of mold due to heavy rains across much of northern China. This is also China's main winter wheat region, so delays in planting in flooded and waterlogged fields could impact next year's wheat crop. While corn prices in China have been under downward pressure and imports of corn and wheat have been minimal over the past year, this weather event could tighten up China's grain markets. On October 9, the agriculture ministry and meteorological administration issued a warning  for October 10-12 of continuous rain and waterlogging of farmland across parts of Northern and Northwest China and parts of the Huanghuai region. An "orange alert" was issued for Xianyang, Tongchuan, and Weinan in Shaanxi Province; Linfen, Yuncheng, Changzhi and Jincheng in Shanxi Province; Xingtai and Handan in Hebei Province; and Dezhou and Binzhou in Shandong Province. Soil moisture October 9. Blue indicate...

China purchased 13 million metric tons of wheat through its minimum procurement price program this year, according to the director of the State Administration of Food and Commodity Reserves . Purchases were made in provinces of Henan, Anhui, Hebei, and Shandong.  The director also announced that a total of 100.16 million metric tons of wheat has been procured during the peak marketing season. Thus, 13% of this year's crop was purchased at the minimum price and stored in government reserves. The director said wheat procurement began early this year and proceeded smoothly as most farmers sought to sell their grain as soon as it was harvested. The minimum price program gave farmers a "bottom line" that guaranteed that farmers could sell their wheat at a good price, the director said. The minimum price for wheat this year  is RMB 2,380 per metric ton for grade 3 wheat. The Chinese support price works out to US$ 9 per bushel at the current exchange rate. By comparison, the fut...

U.S. news media are reporting that China's soybean boycott is driving American farmers into financial trouble, but China could have a farm crisis of its own brewing. Chinese authorities quietly pared back imports of corn and wheat last year to insulate its farmers from worldwide downward pressure on farm prices. But the country's flood of imported Brazilian soybeans this year pressures prices of Chinese soybeans, with knock-on effects on prices of other crops. Several years ago Chinese authorities fretted about low profits undermining grain production incentives. Since then, farm prices have fallen further and the country's new cadre of scaled-up farms have a bloated cost structure. Now Chinese authorities have stopped publicly talking about the problem, likely an indicator that the problem has become even more acute.  As China's fall harvest gets underway crop prices are low and under a new round of downward pressure. The average price for corn--China's largest cro...