China's grain data for 2024: output 'at a new level'

China's grain output "reached a new level" in 2024 as it surpassed 700 mmt for the first time, according to a Chinese official explaining this year's grain data. Production rose 1.3 percent to 706.5 million metric tons (mmt) in 2024. The area planted in grain crops increased by 0.3% and average yield increased 1.3 percent in 2024 according to data released December 13. 

Corn was the driver of China's growth in grain output as it has been for many years. According to the Statistics Bureau's communique on 2024 grain output, corn production reached a record 294.92 mmt in 2024, well above the output of rice (207.54 mmt) and wheat (140.1 mmt). Corn output rose 6.1 mmt this year (up 2.1 percent) and wheat output rose 3.5 mmt, as the two crops accounted for most of the 11.1-mmt increase in grain output. Rice output rose 900,000 metric tons and soybean output declined 200,000 metric tons. Production of early-season rice fell 600,000 metric tons, probably due to summer floods in southern provinces.

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.

Corn also accounted for nearly all of the increase in area planted in grain during 2024, with an increase of 521,800 hectares (+1.2 percent). Rice area rose 57,800 hectares, including a 21,700-hectare increase in early rice. Wheat area fell 39,800 hectares. Soybean plantings fell 140,700 hectares as Xi Jinping's campaign to boost soybean self-sufficiency seems to have faltered. 

Source: China's National Bureau of Statistics.

Wheat accounted for most of the improvement in grain yield as growing conditions were favorable for the winter wheat crop. Wheat yield increased by 158.6 kg-per-hectare (+2.7%). Early rice was the only grain crop with a decline in yield. 

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.

Corn's dominance of grain output growth continues a long-term trend. Corn output grew at a frantic pace from 2004 until a massive corn glut was built up during 2012-15. A "supply side structural adjustment" during 2016-20 to alleviate the glut interrupted the growth. Corn output growth was resumed since 2020. Rice output seems to have plateaued and wheat is growing at a moderate pace. Soybean output is stuck around 20 mmt. 

Source: Data from China National Bureau of Statistics.

The National Bureau of Statistics official explained that this year's bumper harvest was due to officials preventing loss of arable land, averting impacts of natural disasters, and the central communist party leadership's support for grain output: raising the minimum prices for wheat and rice, paying grain producers an "arable land fertility protection" subsidy, corn, soybean and rice producer subsidies, improving a full-cost insurance and income protection insurance program, an agricultural input price stabilization program, "comprehensive land governance", and expansion of summer crop planting to maximize the potential area planted in grain. Based on the official's explanation, the objective of the soybean producer subsidy seems to have quietly shifted from increasing soybean self-sufficiency to keeping soybean area planted stable at 10 million hectares or more. 

The official attributed good yields to good sunlight and moisture in grain-producing regions despite floods, droughts, and typhoons. He credited the "high standard field construction" program, and an action plan to raise yields through increased planting density, combining fertilizer application with irrigation, and a program that combines a growth-promoting spray with herbicide and pesticide applications. 

The official began his explanation by crediting Xi Jinping's guidance for record grain output and concluded by explaining the grain output figures support Xi's priorities. A shorter description of the grain data and the official's explanation were also featured on page 1 of the December 14 Peoples Daily. According to the Statistics Bureau official, China's record grain output contributes to national food security, global food security, stabilizes the world grain market, and lays a foundation for China's status as an agricultural power. Grain production advances rural revitalization, drives "high quality development" and puts economic recovery on a good trend, the official said.