Friday, February 26, 2021

China Feed Production Outpaces Meat Output

China's animal feed production was a record 252.76 million metric tons (mmt) in 2020, up 9.5 percent from the previous year, according to data reported by the country's feed industry association

Statistics indicate China's feed production has been growing much faster than its production of meat and eggs. Feed output rose 24 mmt, while meat and egg output edged up by 1.5 mmt. The ratio of feed output to combined meat and egg output was 2.28, up from less than 2.1 the last two years and 1.5 in 2010.  

Sources: China Feed Industry Association; China National Bureau of Statistics.

About half of feed was produced for poultry: 91.8 mmt for meat poultry and 33.5 mmt for layers in 2020. Hog feed output totaled 89.2 mmt, while aquaculture feed totaled 21.9 mmt, feed for cattle and sheep totaled 13.2 mmt, another 2.9 mmt of feed was produced for other miscellaneous animals, and less than 963,000 mt of pet food was produced in 2020. 

Source: China Feed Industry Association.

Swine feed led the growth in feed output. Swine feed production rose 12.6 mmt in 2020, while feed for meat poultry went up 7.2 mmt, and feed for laying hens went up 2.4 mmt. Pork output was down 1.4 mmt in 2020. The National Bureau of Statistics said the inventory of swine went up 31 percent, but most of the growth occurred in the second half of the year. Poultry meat output rose only 1.2 mmt, implying a highly inefficient marginal feed conversion of 6:1, about three times usual poultry feed conversions. The implied feed conversion for layers was 1.5. 

Source: Calculations using data from China Feed Industry Association and National Bureau of Statistics.

Swine feed output bounced back from its 21-mmt drop in 2019 during the peak of China's African swine fever epidemic. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's pork output peaked at 58.2 mmt in 2014 and dropped to 41 mmt in 2020. Swine feed output rose from 87.2 mmt in 2014 to a peak of 98 mmt in 2017 and was still below the peak at 89.2 mmt in 2020. 
Source: China Feed Industry Association and National Bureau of Statistics.

Monthly swine feed output doubled from about 6 mmt per month in April-June 2020 to 12 mmt in December. The data indicate that poultry (meat and egg combined) feed dipped below swine feed output in December. 
Source: China Feed Industry Association.

The accuracy of these data is unknown. They are based on reports filed by large feed mills with the association. They likely exclude many on-farm mills. The report did not reveal ingredients used in feed. The China Feed Industry Association estimate falls between two other estimates of China's feed output for last year. All indicate robust growth of varying magnitude. The Alltech global feed industry survey estimated China's feed output at 240 mmt, with 5-percent growth in 2020. The National Bureau of Statistics reported cumulative feed industry output of 294 mmt by December 2020, up 12 percent from the previous December.

Data source2020 China feed
output (MMT)
Alltech global survey240+5%
Feed Industry Association253+9%
Statistics Bureau294+12%

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