Livestock Disease Shadows, Imported Genetics are Bottlenecks

A Chinese academic noted the growing importance of livestock to China's agricultural economy, but also warned of the sector's weaknesses: whack-a-mole epidemics, reliance on imports for core inputs, low productivity and high costs.

The comments by agricultural economics Professor Wang Mingli of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences were reported by No. 1 Business News on the release of his institute's report on challenges and countermeasures for supply-side structural reform in the agricultural sector.

According to Prof. Wang, livestock accounts for 28 percent of the value of China's agricultural output, and perhaps as much as 40 percent (presumably taking into account feeds, fodder crops, and related activities). There is much room for growth, he said, because China's per capita availability of meat, dairy, and egg products is still much less than in developed countries. Prof. Wang said the growing share of China's agricultural sector is irreversible.

In the spirit of the report, Prof. Wang acknowledged barriers facing the sector's development, including rising pork prices that are the "shadow" of disease epidemics such as African swine fever.

Professor Wang recited a chronology of major livestock disease outbreaks in China:

• 2004--Highly-pathogenic avian influenza ravaged China's poultry flocks, causing large losses for farmers.
• 2005--Streptococcus Sui broke out in Sichuan Province's swine herd
• 2006--highly-pathogenic Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome ("blue ear disease") first broke out in several southern provinces and spread nationwide, impeding healthy development of the hog industry, pushing China's CPI upward, and attracting the attention of national leaders. 
• 2011--Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus killed off large numbers of piglets nationwide.
• Fall 2012--an outbreak of H7N9 caused estimated losses of RMB 23 billion for the country's poultry industry by April 2013
• 2014--another H7N9 outbreak caused estimated losses of RMB 40 billion for the poultry industry.
• 2014--an epidemic of a sheep disease, Pestes de Petits, caused a drop in mutton prices and huge losses for sheep farmers. 
• 2018--African swine fever was first officially reported in China, spreading to every province in less than a year.

Professor Wang claims that the epidemics are "fairly stable" with the improvement of disease prevention and control, but the potential for zoonotics that spread to both animals and humans in some region must not be underestimated. Prof. Wang estimated this year's reduction in pork output at 10 percent, cited farmers' hesitance to restock farms, big financial losses despite expectations of good prices, and stressed the importance of building the veterinary system and ramping up production of alternative meats to fill the shortfall in pork supplies. Prof. Wang warned that disease impacts on livestock markets do not dissipate easily and can last 3-to-5 years or even a decade or more.

Professor Wang also stressed China's reliance on imported resources and lack of international competitiveness in livestock production. 

• “Three foreign lines” [Duroc-Landrace-Yorkshire] account for 80% or more of the domestic pig-breeding market. Domestic breeds account for less than 20%.
• White-feathered breeding chicken [genetics] are entirely imported.
• A “Cherry Valley Duck” breed has over 80% of the duck meat market.
• About 50% of laying hen [genetics] are supplied from abroad.
• High quality beef cattle breeds--Simenthal, Limousin, Charlelois, Wagyu, Angus--are from abroad.
• Holstein and Jersey dairy cattle breeds are brought in from overseas.
• Four sheep breeds are from abroad
• In 2017 China's imports of seed for alfalfa were 1,237 mt (up 340% from 2010), clover 2,932 mt (up 150%), fescue 15,202 mt (up 120%), ryegrass 31,279 mt (up 210%).
• Much of the machinery and equipment for livestock farms is imported. Despite improvements, Chinese equipment is behind that of foreign countries.

With low productivity, China's international competitiveness is weak. Chinese sows produce 16 marketed hogs annually, Prof. Wang said, behind the 20 or more produced in Europe and North America. China's lag in technology, management, and concepts reduces productivity and raises unit costs of China's livestock products, he said. 

China trails behind developed countries, but the potential is great, Prof. Wang insists. He recommends utilizing the strategies of "two kinds of resources, two markets" and "going out" to invest abroad to meet the growing demands of Chinese consumers.