China Soybean Revitalization = "Groundhog Day"

Government officials and news media describe this year's soybean revitalization plan as something new, but China has rolled out a continuous cycle of similar plans going back decades. All of the plans aimed to introduce new cultivars, raise yields, expand production, and forge links between farmers and processors, but no significant progress is evident. The tendency of Chinese officials to keep re-booting and forgetting the same old plans in a manner that recalls the movie "Groundhog Day" is perhaps most evident in its unending cycle of soybean revitalization plans.

Nearly 40 years ago, a USDA report remarked, "China will again attempt to expand soybean production in 1980, although past efforts have had little success." A year later, British professor Kenneth Walker wrote, "Attempts to reverse the long-run decline in the production of…soybeans are now being made."

In 2000, Chinese officials began an experiment with the first direct subsidy payments for soybean farmers in pilot areas as a "countermeasure" to gird up farmers facing competition from imports after WTO accession.

In 2002, Heilongjiang Province launched a soybean revitalization plan that included subsidies of 10 yuan per mu for high-oil soybean varieties and 5 yuan per mu for high-protein varieties, improvements in seed distribution, technical training classes for farmers, and arranging links between soybean sellers and buyers. Farmers Daily cheered on Heilongjiang's State Farms and its company front, Beidahuang, as key players in the plan.

Also in 2002, a national soybean seed subsidy was launched by China's Ministry of Finance with cumulative expenditures of 700 million yuan ($84.5 million at the exchange rate that prevailed at the time) over the first 6 years of the program.

In 2007, the China Soybean Industry Association proposed a soybean industry revitalization program that would include soybeans in the national grain subsidy program; "utilize news media" to publicize the "nutritional and safety advantages" of domestic "non-GMO" soybeans over imported soybeans; "fully utilize WTO rules" to strengthen government intervention in soybean markets and regulate soybean importers; launch trade remedy actions; and encourage cooperatives and processors to utilize futures markets.

In 2008, the National Development and Reform Commission issued "Guiding opinion on promoting healthy development of the soybean processing industry" that called for using "various measures" to develop production of soybeans, peanuts and other oilseeds. It called for more technical guidance and "indigenous innovation," encouraged Chinese companies to make overseas soybean investments, and it recommended establishing a commercial soybean inventory system, setting up an "orderly" import security mechanism, and shaping public opinion regarding "healthy oil consumption."

In 2008, China began a "temporary reserve" program that set a floor price for domestic soybeans in northeastern provinces. The program promptly filled warehouses with unsellable domestic soybeans that are still being auctioned off five years after the program ended. The high price for domestic soybeans encouraged even more imports of soybeans.

In 2009, the Ministry of Agriculture launched a pilot "Healthy Soybean Industry Development Mechanism" in two Heilongjiang counties, a region of Inner Mongolia, and the "Red Star" State Farm in Heilongjiang. The program selected companies and local government offices in each locality to promote cooperation between companies and farmer cooperatives, promote use of futures markets, and promote consumption of soybean food products and nutritional supplements.

In 2010, the head of the China soybean industry association wrote an essay in the communist party journal Seeking Truth reiterating his recommendation to build a "non-GMO soybean brand," set up a non-GMO soybean resource protection region, and require importers to purchase equal amounts of domestic and imported soybeans in order to gain permission to import (modeled on a Thai program). (The last recommendation was never adopted).

In 2010, the Ministry of Finance announced a "National healthy soybean industry development plan" with subsidies for soybean seeds set to increase to 400 million yuan in 2008 and cover 40 million mu (2.7 million hectares) of land. The plan promised financial support for propagation of improved seed strains and money for farmer cooperatives and training in technology and management.

In 2014, a "target price" subsidy replaced the "temporary reserve" in a 3-year pilot carried out in northeastern provinces.

In 2016, the Ministry of Agriculture's "Guidance on Soybean Industry Development" called for focusing subsidies on protection regions focused on soybeans and promoting rotations of soybeans with corn.

In 2017, direct payments to soybean producers in northeastern provinces replaced the "target price" subsidy.

In April 2018, provincial and local governments in northeastern China issued "emergency notices" calling for expansion of soybean planting, apparently prompted by the rapid increase in soybean imports during 2017. The soybean subsidy payment was set at 320 yuan per mu in Heilongjiang Province.

The 2019 "Document Number 1" announced a new "soybean revitalization plan" that calls for a 10-million-mu increase in soybean planting this year. This year's soybean subsidy payment in Heilongjiang is expected to be 270 yuan/mt, and Chinese news media are reporting a big increase in soybean plantings this year despite vagueness of the "revitalization plan" and a subsidy that is lower than last year's. Officials are also promising that the government's reserve corporation will step in to purchase soybeans after the harvest, implicitly assuring them of no downside price risk.