Thursday, March 9, 2017

China MOA S&D Estimates (Mar 2017)

China Ministry of Agriculture's supply and demand estimates (CASDE) for March 2017 were unchanged from the previous month except for a small reduction in the 2016/17 sugar production estimate.

Corn has been major a agricultural talking point for officials this week at the National Peoples Congress in Beijing: the necessity of allowing corn prices to fall, the need to get supply aligned with demand, and the monumental task of whittling away the corn reserves. The CASDE led off with a similar review of this year's corn supply and demand numbers, noting that the reduction in corn production in 2016/17 and the rebound in feed and industrial use will close the gap between corn supply and demand. The CASDE estimates would result in a further increase in corn reserves of 4.4 million metric tons during 2016/17. The CASDE authors observed that feed consumption is currently restrained by effects of avian influenza and low swine inventories, but they did not change their feed consumption estimate for 2016/17. The 2016/17 corn import estimate is unchanged from last month at 800,000 metric tons, down from 3.2 million metric tons in 2015/16.

China corn supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, March 2017)
Item Unit 2015/16 2016/17 Feb 2016/17 Mar
Planted area 1000 ha 38,117 36,026 36,026
Harvested area 1000 ha 38,117 36,021 36,021
Yield Kg/ha 5,892 5,978 5,978
Production MMT 224.58 215.33 215.33
Imports MMT 3.2 0.8 0.8
Consumption MMT 194.09 211.22 211.22
--Food MMT 7.65 7.82 7.82
--Feed MMT 121.01 133.53 133.53
--Industrial use MMT 54.17 58.25 58.25
--Seed MMT 1.66 1.61 1.61
Loss and other MMT 9.56 10.01 10.01
Exports MMT 0.01 0.5 0.5
Surplus MMT 33.73 4.41 4.41

Separately, Minister of Agriculture Han Changfu led off an interview with China's Central Television yesterday with the "hot topic" of corn. He stressed the importance of the 30-million-mu (2 million ha) decline in corn planting in 2016 for restoring equilibrium between supply and demand, and he said they hope for a further 10-million-mu (667,000 ha) reduction in corn planting in 2017. The Minister recommended that farmer friends plant whatever is profitable, but cautioned against piling into new crops (i.e. creating new surpluses of other commodities).

The CASDE noted that grain bureau statistics showed that 75 mmt of corn from the 2016 harvest had been procured in northeastern provinces as of February 28, 2017. This was lower than a year ago, but comparable to earlier years. They expect corn prices to remain steady.

Soybean estimates are also unchanged from February. CASDE expects imports to reach 85.31 mmt for 2016/17. The soybean write-up also mentions impact of avian influenza and low hog numbers on feed demand but did not change its estimated 85.5-mmt crush volume for 2016/17. More domestic soybeans are moving out of the northeast as transportation bottlenecks have eased and transport costs have fallen, but prices for domestic soybeans are still strong.

China soybean supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, March 2017)
Item Unit  2015/16  2016/17 Feb 2016/17 Mar
Planted area 1000 ha 6,590 7,156 7,156
Harvested area 1000 ha 6,590 7,150 7,150
Yield Kg/ha 1,762 1758 1758
Production MMT 11.61 12.57 12.57
Imports MMT 83.23 85.31 85.31
Consumption MMT 96.67 99.87 99.87
--Crushing MMT 82.89 85.50 85.50
--Food MMT 10.35 11.18 11.18
--Seed MMT 0.54 0.61 0.61
Loss and other MMT 2.89 2.58 2.58
Exports MMT 0.11 0.2 0.2
Surplus MMT -1.96 -2.19 -2.19

Cotton estimates are also unchanged this month. There is no mention of prospects for cotton auctions which have resumed after the end of the cotton procurement season. CASDE expects cotton stocks to decline by slightly less than 2 mmt in 2016/17, but the 9.13 mmt carry-out will still be 120 percent of annual consumption. Imports of cotton are estimated at just 900,000 mt this year.

China cotton supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, March 2017)
Item Unit 2015/16 2016/17 Feb 2016/17 Mar
Begin inventory MMT 12.8 11.11 11.11
Planted area 1000 ha 3,267 3,100 3,100
Yield Kg/ha 1,510 1,523 1,523
Production MMT 4.93 4.72 4.72
Imports MMT 0.96 0.90 0.90
Consumption MMT 7.56 7.59 7.59
Exports MMT 0.02 0.02 0.01
End Inventory MMT 11.11 9.13 9.13

Vegetable oil production is unchanged at 25.89 mmt. Consumption is estimated at 31.43 mmt and imports at 5.6 mmt. Rapeseed growing conditions in China are said to be favorable and similar to last year.

China edible oils supply and demand (Min Agriculture, March 2017)
Item Unit 2015/16 2016/17 Feb 2016/17 Mar
Production MMT 25.3 25.89 25.89
--Soy oil MMT 14.74 15.17 15.17
--Rapeseed oil MMT 5.6 5.61 5.61
--Peanut oil MMT 3.01 3.18 3.18
Imports MMT 5.81 5.6 5.6
--Palm oil MMT 3.39 3.25 3.25
--Rapeseed oil MMT 0.77 0.75 0.75
--Soy oil MMT 0.59 0.58 0.58
Consumption MMT 31.17 31.43 31.43
--Urban MMT 20.41 21.4 21.4
--Rural MMT 10.76 10.03 10.03
Exports MMT 0.11 0.13 0.13
Surplus MMT -0.17 -0.07 -0.07

Sugar production is in its peak season, with 20 sugar cane mills in operation and most beet processors in operation. A 200,000-metric ton reduction in sugar cane output was made as farmers are holding back a larger portion of sugar cane for future production to take advantage of strong prices.

China sugar supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, March 2017)
Item Unit 2015/16 2016/17 Feb 2016/17 Mar
Planted area 1000 ha 1423 1433 1433
--sugar cane 1000 ha 1295 1270 1270
--sugar beets 1000 ha 128 163 163
Yield



--sugar cane MT/ha 60.3 60 60
--sugar beets MT/ha 53.85 52.5 52.5
Sugar output MMT 8.7 9.9 9.7
--sugar cane MMT 7.85 8.85 8.65
--sugar beets MMT 0.85 1.05 1.05
Imports MMT 3.73 3.5 3.5
Consumption MMT 15.2 15 15
Exports MMT 0.15 0.07 0.07
Surplus MMT -2.92 -1.67 -1.87

1 comment:

Jones said...

Hi there, really like your blog! There is a real need to get some of this information out in English...please keep it up! I am curious why the gov't reduced sugar production however - it doesn't make sense that farmers would keep cane back for next year.

Thank you, Lynn.