In its
September "China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates" China's Ministry of Agriculture reduced its estimates of the country's corn production and imports for the coming year, but an excess supply of over 8 million metric tons is still expected for the 2016/17 market year. Soybean imports were revised downward to 84 mmt for 2016/17 as sales of government stocks displace some imports and tepid livestock industry growth slows soybean meal demand growth. Corn prices in production regions are expected to fall to 1500-to-1650 yuan/mt during 2016/17, down from 1850-1880 yuan during 2015/16.
China
corn balance sheet (China Ministry of Ag, Sept 2016) |
|
Item |
Unit |
2014/15 |
2015/16 |
2016/17 |
Change from last month |
Sown area |
1000 HA |
37,123 |
38,117 |
36,026 |
|
Yield |
KG/HA |
5,809 |
5,892 |
5,983 |
-27.00 |
Production |
Mil MT |
215.70 |
224.58 |
215.43 |
-1.08 |
Imports |
Mil MT |
5.52 |
4.60 |
2.00 |
-0.40 |
Consumption |
Mil MT |
183.39 |
193.35 |
208.97 |
0.80 |
--food |
Mil MT |
7.52 |
7.65 |
7.72 |
|
--feed |
Mil MT |
112.56 |
120.61 |
132.68 |
|
--industrial |
Mil MT |
52.57 |
53.97 |
56.35 |
|
--seed |
Mil MT |
1.69 |
1.66 |
1.61 |
|
--waste and other |
Mil MT |
9.05 |
9.56 |
9.81 |
|
Exports |
Mil MT |
0.01 |
0.03 |
0.20 |
|
Inventory change |
Mil MT |
37.82 |
34.02 |
8.06 |
|
After big surpluses of 37.8 mmt in 2014/15 and 34 mmt in 2015/16, MOA projects a smaller surplus of 8 mmt for 2016/17. Production is expected to be down in 2016/17 on a 2-million-hectare reduction in area and hot, dry weather in parts of northeastern China that prompted a 27-kg downward revision of yield. Recovery of feed consumption (up 12 mmt) is the biggest change in the 2016/17 balance sheet. This apparently comes from a shift from imported corn substitutes back to corn (the soybean meal outlook presumes weak growth in feed demand). MOA expects only a 800,000-mt bump in industrial consumption from the VAT-rebate for starch and alcohol exports. Corn imports for 2016/17 were revised downward by 400,000 metric tons to 2 mmt as lower corn prices in China reduce imports of corn substitutes.
MOA reduced its 2015/16 soybean imports to 81.4 mmt as sales of domestic reserves slowed imports during the final month of the market year. The change in soybean inventory for 2015/16 is estimated at -1.84 mmt, reflecting the sale of government stocks.
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China
soybean balance sheet (China Ministry of Ag, Sept 2016) |
|
Item |
Unit |
2014/15 |
2015/16 |
2016/17 |
Change from last month |
Harvested area |
1000 HA |
6,800 |
6,590 |
7,150 |
-6 |
Yield |
KG/HA |
1,787 |
1,762 |
1,753 |
-44.00 |
Production |
Mil MT |
12.15 |
11.61 |
12.53 |
-0.33 |
Imports |
Mil MT |
78.35 |
81.42 |
83.50 |
|
Consumption |
Mil MT |
89.83 |
94.76 |
98.20 |
|
--crushing |
Mil MT |
77.34 |
81.00 |
84.00 |
|
--food |
Mil MT |
9.15 |
10.35 |
11.18 |
|
--seed |
Mil MT |
0.50 |
0.54 |
0.56 |
|
--loss & other |
Mil MT |
2.84 |
2.87 |
2.46 |
|
Exports |
Mil MT |
0.14 |
0.13 |
0.20 |
|
Inventory change |
Mil MT |
0.53 |
-1.84 |
-2.37 |
-0.35 |
The only changes in the 2016/17 soybean balance sheet is a downward revision in production due to dry weather in the northeast. Yield was revised downward, and MOA expects 6000 hectares to go unharvested. Soybean imports for 2016/17 are forecast at 83.5 mmt. MOA expects crush of soybeans to increase only 3 mmt duirng 2016/17. MOA expects a weak bounce in soybean production to 12.5 mmt in 2016/17.
China vegetable oils balance sheet (China Ministry of Agriculture, Sept 2016) |
|
|
Item |
Unit |
2014/15 |
2015/16 |
2016/17 |
Change from last month |
Production |
Mil MT |
26.12 |
25.06 |
25.32 |
0.04 |
--Soy oil |
Mil MT |
14.01 |
14.62 |
14.88 |
-0.04 |
--Rapeseed oil |
Mil MT |
6.92 |
5.66 |
5.37 |
|
--Peanut oil |
Mil MT |
3.03 |
3.01 |
3.16 |
0.08 |
Imports |
Mil MT |
6.14 |
5.55 |
5.35 |
0.08 |
--Palm oil |
Mil MT |
4.07 |
3.50 |
3.40 |
|
--Rapeseed oil |
Mil MT |
0.73 |
0.77 |
0.75 |
|
--Soy oil |
Mil MT |
0.77 |
0.65 |
0.58 |
|
Consumption |
Mil MT |
30.80 |
31.17 |
31.38 |
0.01 |
--Urban |
Mil MT |
20.17 |
20.41 |
20.55 |
|
--Rural |
Mil MT |
10.64 |
10.76 |
10.83 |
|
Exports |
Mil MT |
0.14 |
0.12 |
0.13 |
|
Inventory change |
Mil MT |
1.31 |
-0.67 |
-0.84 |
0.12 |
Cotton production is expected to fall again during 2016/17, mostly due to poor weather in Xinjiang: colder than normal temperatures in northern Xinjiang and heavy rain in the southern part of the region. Cotton inventories continue their slow decline to 9.3 mmt at the end of 2016/17, still 124% of forecast consumption. MOA expects 950,000 metric tons of cotton imports during 2016/17, slightly less than 2015/16 imports.
China cotton balance sheet (China Ministry of Agriculture, Sept 2016) |
|
Item |
Unit |
2014/15 |
2015/16 |
2016/17 |
Change from last month |
Beg. Inventory |
Mil MT |
12.40 |
12.80 |
11.17 |
-0.24 |
Area |
1000 HA |
4,219 |
3,433 |
3,100 |
|
Yield |
KG/HA |
1,460 |
1,510 |
1,524 |
-6.00 |
Production |
Mil MT |
6.16 |
4.93 |
4.72 |
-0.02 |
Imports |
Mil MT |
1.67 |
0.96 |
0.95 |
|
Consumption |
Mil MT |
7.40 |
7.50 |
7.50 |
|
Exports |
Mil MT |
0.02 |
0.03 |
0.03 |
|
End Inventory |
Mil MT |
12.80 |
11.17 |
9.31 |
-0.27 |
China sugar balance sheet (Min Ag, September 2016) |
|
|
Item |
Unit |
2014/15 |
2015/16 |
2016/17 |
Area |
1000 ha |
1579 |
1435 |
1433 |
--sugar cane |
1000 ha |
1457 |
1301 |
1270 |
--sugar beets |
1000 ha |
122 |
134 |
163 |
Yield |
MT/ha |
54.6 |
54.38 |
54.38 |
--sugar cane |
MT/ha |
61.8 |
60.75 |
60.00 |
--sugar beets |
MT/ha |
47.4 |
48.00 |
48.75 |
Sugar production |
Mil. MT |
10.56 |
8.70 |
9.90 |
--sugar cane |
Mil. MT |
9.82 |
7.85 |
8.85 |
--sugar beets |
Mil. MT |
0.74 |
0.85 |
1.05 |
Sugar imports |
Mil. MT |
4.81 |
3.50 |
3.50 |
Sugar consumption |
Mil. MT |
15.1 |
15.20 |
15.30 |
Sugar exports |
Mil. MT |
0.06 |
0.16 |
0.07 |
Inventory change |
Mil. MT |
0.21 |
-3.16 |
-1.97 |
China commodity prices (RMB per metric ton) Sept 2016 |
|
Commodity |
Description |
2014/15 |
2015/16 |
2016/17 |
Corn |
production areas |
2266 |
1850-1880 |
1500-1650 |
|
last month |
|
1800-1880 |
1550-1650 |
|
C&F imports |
1643 |
1570-1620 |
1600-1700 |
|
last month |
|
1500-1670 |
1600-1750 |
Soybeans |
production areas |
4675 |
4275-4475 |
4350-4550 |
|
C&F imports |
3265 |
2925-3125 |
3050-3250 |
Cotton |
Domestic 3128B |
13894 |
12600 |
14000-16000 |
|
last month |
|
12500 |
12500-14500 |
Soy oil |
Domestic ex-factory |
5500-5900 |
5600-6300 |
5700-6400 |
|
C&F imports |
5400-5900 |
4300-5900 |
5600-6400 |
Palm oil |
C&F imports |
4300-5500 |
4300-5900 |
4350-5950 |
Rapeseed |
ex-factory |
6000-6500 |
6000-6500 |
6000-6500 |
Peanut oil |
ex-factory |
13400-14600 |
14000-16000 |
15000-16000 |
Sugar |
Domestic |
4877 |
5400-6200 |
5600-6400 |
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