Bumper Harvest of Wheat in China's Glutted Market

China had a bumper wheat harvest in 2026 according to the National Bureau of Statistics communique on summer grain output--despite late planting of the crop last Fall and torrential rains and hail that impeded this Summer's harvest and degraded quality. Declining prices after the harvest seem to confirm that supplies are ample. Despite a glutted wheat market, the prospect of farmers abandoning wheat due to lack of profit fuels Chinese authorities' obsession with "food security."

Summer-harvested wheat output was 138.95 million metric tons, up 0.6% from last year despite drenching rains that delayed planting in the Fall and additional heavy rainfall during the summer harvest season. Keep in mind that last year's output was impacted by severe drought. Summer grain output, which includes wheat as well as barley, oats, buckwheat, cowpeas, and some beans and potatoes, totaled 150.75 mmt. 

USDA's WASDE report estimates China's wheat area at 140 mmt in 2025 (matching the number in the December communique) and 141 mmt in 2026, consistent with the 783,000-mt increase in the summer grain report. Note that China's wheat output for the entire year exceeds the wheat number reported in the summer grain communique by about 1.9-to-2.1 mmt (presumably reflecting wheat produced in the Fall months). 

China National Bureau of Statistics releases wheat statistics in its "summer grain" communique each July since 2019 and in an annual grain communique each December.

Commentary by a senior statistician from the Bureau issued along with the summer grain communique attributed the increase in summer grain output to a Party-Government food security responsibility system that rewards or threatens local officials based on grain output. Also cited were a package of subsidies and crop insurance, minimum prices for wheat, and interventions by officials to drain fields and orchestrate emergency harvest operations before storms hit at harvest time. 

A field captain system launched in 2021 (田长制) assigns responsibility for watching grain output at the village level on up. Ecological police also threaten to lock up anyone who misuses cropland.

The statistician said, "Every effort was made to ensure that winter wheat was planted wherever possible," including planting in fields normally left fallow during the winter. Despite late planting, the statistician said weather was favorable for wheat growth during the winter and spring months after the wheat was planted. The 0.9% increase in wheat yields partly reflected recovery from last year's drought-impacted low yields in Henan, Jiangsu, and Shaanxi, the statistician explained. Localities increased seeding rates and improved sowing quality; the government sent out advance funds to spray wheat with pesticides, fungicides, and foliar fertilizers; and application of fertilizer and water and cultivation techniques were applied to ameliorate the impact of late planting. 

The small -66,600 hectare decline in wheat area during 2026 follows a small decline last year, despite local officials being under pressure to maximize planting. 

China National Bureau of Statistics, summer grain communiques and China Statistical Yearbook.

The 51-kg increase in wheat yield in 2026 is an improvement over 2025 when yield declined -2.7 kg. This year's reported increase is slightly behind the 64-kg/year average trend since 2015. 

China National Bureau of Statistics, summer grain communiques and China Statistical Yearbook.

Despite the obsession of Chinese authorities with wheat as a staple food, China produces excess supplies of wheat. Per-capita consumption is falling, and large volumes of wheat are used as animal feed or stored in reserves for up to a decade. China's annual wheat production has little bearing on the country's food security, but authorities worry that farmers might abandon wheat production en masse because it produces little or no profit.

Chinese wheat prices have been falling since 2024. The average procurement price this year has fallen 3.4% since the harvest began--from RMB 2506/mt in May 2026 to RMB 2421/mt on July 7, 2026. This Summer's drop in prices reverses a recovery of prices that began last Fall. Over the past month price movements have varied by province. The wheat price has risen 1.6% in Hubei--the province hit hardest by rainfall during its harvest--and 0.5% in Sichuan and Xinjiang. The price is steady in Henan Province, down about 1.3% in Hebei and Shanxi Provinces, and down less than 0.5% in Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong, and Gansu. 

Compiled from China Administration of Food and Commodity Reserves.

Last year, Chinese authorities' stockpiling to support prices accounted for 15% of wheat marketed. According to Administration of Food and Commodity Reserves statistics, a total of 108 mmt of wheat was procured by various types of enterprises during 2025, of which 16.4 mmt was procured at the support price of RMB 2380/mt (about $9.53/bu). This doesn't include routine additions to reserves.  This year's average wheat procurement price is about the same as last year, slightly above the support price, but there have been no announcements that the support price program will be activated. Authorities say the price support program is meant to assure growers that they need not worry about sharp declines in price.

China holds large amounts of wheat in reserves beyond the 3-year storage limit. From January to April 2026 Chinese authorities tried to auction off 7.1 mmt of wheat that had been purchased at the support price between 2017 and 2020, of which 5.66 mmt was sold. Most of the wheat auctioned had been in storage for 9 years. This doesn't include much larger volumes of both domestic and imported wheat held in conventional reserves.

Cost of production data from China's National Development and Reform Commission show that wheat growers rarely earn a profit. Rare years of profit occurred in 2021 and 2022. The costs are inflated because they include imputed opportunity costs of family-owned land and labor. Cash returns are higher for farmers who don't pay rent or pay wages, but still small compared with earnings from off-farm work or cash crops. Scaled-up farms envisioned to replace the army of aging small-holders face a serious profitability problem since they have to pay cash rent for their land and pay for mechanized tillage, spraying and harvest. Low returns from wheat-growing are a worry for Chinese economic planners who fear that farmers will switch to more profitable crops or abandon their land en masse, prompting the "field captain" system and ecological police to ensure that fields are planted in grain.

China National Development and Reform Commission.

China accounts for about 17% of world wheat production, based on WASDE estimates. WASDE estimates that China's wheat imports will rise from 5.8 mmt in 2025/26 to 6 mmt in 2026/27. 

China imported about 5 million metric tons of wheat during the 12 months from June 2025 to May 2026. Imports provide classes of wheat needed for increasingly popular pastries and baked goods as well as cheap wheat for animal feed and wheat to stock in reserves. China imported wheat mostly from Canada and Australia. Other sources were Argentina, the United States, Russia, and Kazakhstan. China abruptly cut back on wheat imports beginning in 2024--maybe because reserves were full or to shield Chinese farmers from plummeting prices. Imports had reached 12.785 million metric tons during June 2023 - May 2024, but the volume dropped to 4.5 million metric tons in 2024-25. During 2025-26 imports from the U.S., Russia, Kazakhstan, and France dropped sharply, while imports from Canada bounced back and imports from Australia remained steady (though much lower than during 2023-24).

Beijing's state-owned grain trader COFCO dominates wheat imports because the country's tariff-rate quota system allocates 90% of the 9.64 mmt quota to COFCO. Less than 1 million tons of the quota are distributed among other trading companies. COFCO is a leading flour miller, but it also imports grain for State reserves. Beijing-based companies--almost certainly COFCO--accounted for China's surge of wheat imports between 2020 and 2024. Imports by Beijing companies hit 9.1 mmt in 2020-21, 8.7 mmt in 2021-22, 11.4 mmt in 2022-23, 11.1 mmt in 2023-24, before dropping to 3.1 mmt in 2024-25 and 4.3 mmt in 2025-26. Imports by companies in regions of China outside Beijing apparently exceeded their share of the tariff rate quota in 2020-21 when they hit 1.3 mmt, and during 2022-23 to 2024-25 when imports ranged between 1.2 and 1.7 mmt. During June 2025 to May 2026 imports by companies outside Beijing plunged to 643,000 mt. 

Wheat imports by location where importer is registered; China Customs data.