Chinese corn prices have shown renewed weakness this month, while weakness in wheat prices has dissipated. A deluge of rainfall during the first weeks of the wheat harvest has created a new supply of feed-quality wheat that ties the two markets together.
China's corn futures price peaked at CNY 2431 per metric ton (about $9.08 per bushel) on April 29, 2026 and fell 4.7% to CNY 2316 ($8.65/bu) on May 27. The drop during May reversed gains since early October when the price had dropped as low as CNY 2210 per metric ton ($8.26/bu).
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| China Dalian Commodity Exchange. |
An early May commentary in China Feed magazine remarked that the corn market was witnessing a tension between bullish pressure from rising international fertilizer prices and bearish forces from weakening domestic feed demand. Traders were holding on to inventory awaiting another price rally, while feed manufacturers facing losses in the livestock sector were pivoting toward alternative raw materials. In particular, China Feed noted that the narrowing price spread between wheat and corn had encouraged substitution of wheat for corn in feed formulations.
A May 25 article described corn prices as "on the edge of a cliff." The commentator observed that relatively tight supplies and strong prices since last Fall's harvest do not sync up with the government's proclamation of a bumper corn harvest. The commentator attributed the decline in futures prices since the May 1 holiday to anticipation of new supplies of substitutes for corn: large volumes of off-quality wheat from the current harvest and rumors that the government was preparing to auction old rice from its reserves.
The rice auctions were planned to offer old rice not suitable for milling. Access to auctions was to be limited to select feed manufacturers (presumably to prevent the off-quality rice from being sold for human consumption). The auctions have never been officially announced--authorities may have been spooked by the decline in corn prices.
However, all grain market commentaries are talking about the prevalence of sprouted and off-quality wheat coming on the market as heavy rains have inundated the southern portion of China's winter wheat belt.
The agriculture ministry's soil moisture map shows excessive moisture in areas that overlap large parts of China's winter wheat belt. The ministry's May 25 weather report showed heavy rainfall of 50 to 250 millimeters in regions across the wheat belt. A May 22 commentary said crop lodging had been reported across wheat-growing provinces of Hubei, Henan, and Shandong. The commentary said the market had reacted immediately to news of sprouted wheat unsuitable for flour milling that will add to the supply of feed raw materials and drag down the price of corn. Conversely, a reduced supply of milling quality wheat could be bullish for wheat prices.
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| China agriculture ministry May 26 map showing blue excessive soil moisture in much of the winter wheat region of east central China. |
Another feed industry commentary on May 25 said clouds and rain have delayed the wheat crop's maturation and there are localized instances of lodging in low-lying fields, raising the possibility of increased supplies of off-quality wheat that could displace corn use.
Another article on May 26 said the impact on wheat supplies from this month's rain is still unknown, but it noted that the decline in prices for old crop wheat observed earlier this month has stopped and possibly reversed. It is reported that feed companies from many regions have converged on Hubei Province to buy the sprouted wheat at CNY 1700 per metric ton. This article advised flour mills to avoid the hype because the national yield is not likely to significantly affect this year's overall crop yield.
Government officials have renewed their propaganda campaign to dispel concerns about the wheat crop. At a National Development and Reform Commission press conference an official declared that El Nino weather events (heavy rains) will not impact China's wheat crop. Continuing earlier rhetoric, she insisted that transportation and storage are being coordinated, farmers will be paid promptly for their wheat, and there was no impact of the international market on fertilizer use in Spring planting.
Farmers Daily said the official forecast shows that weather will be fine over the next 3 days for the wheat harvest.
A number of localities are posting photos of drones spraying wheat crops this week.
Another article about a May 22 survey in Henan claims wheat sprouting is being exaggerated and "hyped" since the foundation for a good wheat harvest has been laid, and wheat lodging is only occurring in isolated locations. The impact on corn prices will be temporary, the article said.
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