China Acknowledges Tomato Price Spike to Head Off Dissatisfaction

Dozens of Chinese news reports have called attention to high tomato prices over the past month. The large number of similar reports coming out at the same time is an effort to shape public opinion about the Government's control of prices, heading off any discontent that could lead to social instability during a sensitive time. 

Chinese news media are not free to report on any trend or events they deem to be important. This blog has previously discussed how China's State-controlled media is expected to shape public opinion. The large number of articles appearing at the same time, using the same language indicates that articles on tomato prices represent a coordinated effort by propaganda authorities to address this issue. 

The tomato price reports seem to have begun in mid-December with an article in Southern Daily noting vigorous discussion over whether vegetables have become unaffordable. Since then, dozens of articles have appeared in news outlets all over the country citing high prices collected from e-commerce sites or from visits to local markets and stores, noting that tomato prices are 80% to 100% higher than a year ago and acknowledging citizens' consternation over tomatoes being more expensive than eggs or pork.

On January 9, 2026, the Consumer Price Index report for December 2025 showed that vegetable prices were the fastest growing CPI component -- up 18.5% from a year-earlier. It also showed that egg prices were down 12.7%.

Several days later around January 14-16, the number of articles on tomato prices ballooned. Articles continued to come out this week from all over the country, including western regions Xinjiang, Kunming, Chengdu, and Chongqing. This week authoritative articles appeared in Farmers Daily -- the national mouthpiece for agricultural propaganda -- as well as Shanghai's The Paper and Beijing's Xinjing Bao--outlets with a national audience. 

Beginning with the Southern Daily article, nearly every article has featured the same phrase “鸡蛋配不上西红柿” complaining that eggs can no longer be paired with tomatoes in a popular dish combining scrambled eggs and tomatoes (西红柿炒鸡蛋) because tomatoes are now more expensive than eggs. (Is it a coincidence that vegetables and eggs had the largest price changes in the CPI report?) The use of the same phrase in every article suggests it was dictated by propaganda authorities. Xinjing Bao added another sardonic aphorism supposedly being repeated by common people: "I'm too poor to eat vegetables."

Data compiled from Beijing's Xinfadi wholesale market confirms that tomato prices have increased from RMB2-per-500g in June-July to a December peak of RMB5.25-per-500g (RMB 10.5 per kg). Most of the increase occurred after Sept-Oct heavy rains and the early onset of low temperatures in northern China that are cited by many of the articles. However, the Xinfadi data also show that prices also spiked to a similar level in October 2024--an event that failed to generate attention. The spike could have been the result of a second factor cited by many of the articles: farmers abandoned production during a period of extremely low prices earlier in the year. 

Price of tomatoes in Styrofoam boxes compiled from xinfadi.com.cn

A longer history of national tomato prices shows that prices fluctuate wildly every year, and price spikes are not uncommon. Big spikes also occurred in January 2022 and in February 2020 -- both months that correspond to the beginning of zero-covid lockdowns -- that also were ignored by news media. So why all the attention on this tomato price spike?

Monthly rural market prices compiled from China National Bureau of Statistics.

Chinese authorities are concerned about food price stability because it could lead to social unrest, threatening their rule. They undoubtedly recall that spikes in food prices were a core part of the "Arab Spring" uprisings in North Africa. Several of China's friends have been deposed recently in countries like Syria and Nepal, and Chinese leaders have surely been watching protests explode in Iran over the past month. China itself is vulnerable with millions of families underwater on real estate investments, unemployment, unpaid wage issues and an embarrassing decline in the birth rate.

Nearly all of the Chinese articles on tomato prices subtly shift blame away from the government to uncontrollable weather (Xinjing Bao cited an La Niña phenomenon) and irrational farmers who overproduce and exit production when prices fell. Farmers Daily explained that "...extreme weather is posing increasingly severe challenges to agricultural production..." 

Chinese news media never mention a problem unless they can assure readers that the government has the problem under control. True to form, all the tomato price articles predict a decline in prices in the Spring, and they cite Chinese Government actions to ensure vegetable supplies. Southern Daily, for example, claimed that prices are overall stable due to the "vegetable basket" system that arranges production areas across the country to ensure year-round supplies. Farmers Daily cited the "vegetable basket" program and claimed that the agriculture ministry sends technicians to advise farmers on disaster-resistant varieties, inspects greenhouses, and advises farmers on emergency heating measures, and coordinates post-production sales of vegetables. Southern Daily claimed that the predominance of large-scale farms in egg production had stabilized their prices (the chart above shows that egg prices are not so stable). Farmers Daily reminds readers vegetable supplies are much improved from the old days when families in Beijing queued up to buy cabbage and leeks as the only vegetables available during winter months.

The weather problems cited for high tomato prices are real. Spikes in tomato prices can't be hidden from the public. However, there have been no reports on how the September-October rains are impacting supplies of corn, food grade soybeans and late planting of winter wheat -- except for very brief mentions in obscure reports on market conditions that are safely out of the public's eye. 

China Meets Soybean Purchase Commitment; Keeps it Hidden

China has met its 12-million-ton U.S. soybean purchase commitment, according to reports by Reuters and other Western news media--based mostly on USDA reports of sales to China since the October 30 Trump-Xi meeting. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent declared in Davos, Switzerland that he was assured by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng that China had met the commitment. 

The commitment has been met largely (perhaps entirely) by State-owned Chinese companies buying beans at inflated prices to stock Government reserves, an indication that the Chinese Government is making an effort to please the Americans. However, the Chinese Government has never acknowledged the commitment. Back in November 2025 China's Ministry of Commerce refused to acknowledge that the soybean purchase commitments had been made.

So far this week, the news of about fulfillment of the purchase commitment is mostly absent from Chinese news sites reporting on soybeans. Reports could come out later this week after propagandists have finished debating how to spin the story and massage the news. 

One article on a Chinese edible oils market news site did report that the purchase commitment had been fulfilled, citing Secretary Bessent and "trade sources," with shipments taking place between December and May. "Uncle Biao," who blogs about international affairs, trumpeted Bessent's declaration and boasted that soybeans are now a bargaining chip, asserting that financial pressure on Midwestern farmers who had mostly voted for Trump will put pressure on the U.S. administration to make a trade deal. 

Facts in the Chinese articles so far are regurgitated from foreign news reports. Neither the edible oils news article nor "Uncle Biao" cited any Chinese sources, nor did they mention the Chinese Vice Premier. "Uncle Biao" cited the White House as the source of China's commitment to continue buying 25 million tons annually for the next 3 years. 

"Uncle Biao" said the commitment had been fulfilled "on time," but the original announcement from the White House said the purchases would be made by the end of 2025 (3 weeks ago).

Both of the Chinese articles emphasized that purchases by China's State-owned companies COFCO and Sinograin had fulfilled the commitment and that most of the U.S. soybeans will go into national reserves, and that private Chinese companies continue to buy cheaper South American soybeans. Uncle Biao mentioned that 4 auctions since December have sold soybeans from reserves to make way for the American beans. (These auctions sold a cumulative 2 million metric tons.) He boasted that the purchases are a masterstroke of import diversification while simultaneously bolstering reserves to maintain national food security.

The Chinese Government's actions in orchestrating the purchases indicate that China's leadership really wants a trade deal with the U.S. But they do not want to acknowledge that they made the purchase commitment since they want to present themselves as having the upper hand in negotiations.

China: Record Meat & Grain Output in 2025; Declining Farm Prices and Imports

China's 2025 agricultural production data shows meat output grew 4.2%, exceeding 100 million metric tons for the first time, while grain output grew 1.2% to 714.88 mmt. Soybeans stood out with growing imports during 2025, but most of China's other agricultural imports went down. Most agricultural prices also went down, reflecting an economy that appears weaker than the 5% GDP growth reported for 2025.

Meat output growth featured 4.1% growth in pork output, 6.7% growth in poultry, and 2.8% growth in beef, according to the China National Bureau of Statistics preliminary data release for 2025. Milk production grew marginally, and production of eggs and mutton fell. This blog previously reported the Bureau's report of a record grain harvest and 7.7-percent increase in cotton output.

Trade data released by the customs administration show imports of wheat, corn and cotton plummeted during calendar year 2025. Imported soybeans rose 6.5 percent last year to 111.83 mmt, comprising 84% of China's soybean supply. Meat imports declined by 8.7% last year. Imports comprised 5.7% of China's meat supplies, including a 26% share of beef supplies which likely explains why China implemented beef safeguard tariffs last month. Imports comprise 13.9% of cotton supplies. Exports of apparel were down 5% in 2025. China's overall agricultural imports were down 3.6% to $207 billion, while its agricultural exports were up 1.2% to $104 billion.

China did not escape its pork glut despite Chinese authorities browbeating hog companies to cut back on capacity for half the year. In 2025, the number of slaughtered hogs hit a record 719.73 million (up 2.4% year over year), and pork output rose to a record 59.38 million metric tons (up 4.1% as "second fattening" boosted slaughter weights). The end-of-year inventory of swine was up 0.5% from a year ago. The swine inventory ended 2024 at 427.43 million, rose to a peak of 437 million in Q3 2025, and fell to 429.67 million at the end of 2025.

Most farm prices went down during 2025 since China's market did not grow enough to absorb the extra farm output. Hog prices fell 11.2% for the year, and Q4 2025 prices were down 23.7% year-over-year. Egg prices crashed 12%. The 1.2-percent increase in grain output was more than offset by a 2.6-percent decrease in grain prices. On the other hand, cattle prices were up 2.8% in 2025 and 14.7% year-on-year for Q4. Vegetable prices were up 5.6% in Q4 after heavy rains during the fall crimped production, causing prices of tomatoes and some other vegetables to double year-over-year in December.

The CPI was unchanged from 2024, but that hides year-over-year declines in CPI during February-September, with a slight recovery in prices at year-end. The December CPI was up 0.8% year-over-year. The food, alcohol and tobacco component of the CPI was down -0.7% for the year, but it was up 0.8% in December. The December CPI showed vegetable prices were up 18.2% year-over-year, fruit prices were up 4.4%, egg prices were down 12.7%, and pork prices were down 14.6%.

The Bureau of Statistics reported that GDP grew 5% in 2025, which turns out to be exactly the target Xi Jinping had previously set (wow, it must be amazing to have a national leader who can predict economic growth with such precision!). The "primary sector," which includes mainly agriculture, grew 3.9%, and its share of GDP fell to 6.7%. Fixed asset investment in agriculture grew only 2.3%, but real estate investment dropped 17.2%. 

Per capita disposable income also grew exactly 5% to RMB 43,377, but retail sales grew only 3.7%. The unemployment rate was reported to be 5.1%. Per-capita consumer expenditure grew 3.7% for urban residents and 5.3% for rural residents

The population decreased 3.39 million, with 11.31 million deaths and 7.92 million births reported. The population of rural residents declined 13.69 million and the urban population increased by 10.2 million. The population is 67.89% urban.

The number of rural people with nonfarm employment rose 0.5% to 301.15 million, of which 180 million were migrants working away from home in 2025. Their average monthly earnings were RMB 5,075 (about $725), an increase of just 2.5%.

China's Soybean Imports Hit 111.83 MMT Record in CY2025

China imported 111.8 million metric tons (mmt) of soybeans in calendar year 2025, a record high. Imports were up 6.78 mmt from 105 mmt in CY2024. China's 2025 soybean imports were valued at $50.35 billion. Imports for December 2025 were 8.04 mmt, down just 70,000 metric tons from the previous month and about the same as a year earlier.

Compiled from China customs data.

The unit value of December imports was $482 per metric ton, the highest monthly value of the year. The unit value has increased 11% since June's $434 per metric ton (the year's lowest value).

Imports have declined each month since September, reflecting shrinking supplies of Brazilian soybeans. Monthly imports will likely shrink again in January-February. However, China's monthly soybean imports equaled or exceeded year-earlier same-month imports in each month from May to December of 2025. 

Compiled from China customs data.

Chinese customs has not yet released detailed data for December 2025 showing sources of soybean imports, but that data will likely show that imports were mostly from Brazil and none came from the United States. USDA export inspections show 1.2 mmt of soybeans were exported to China in December and 900,000 mt in the first week of January, but these will not clear customs in China until February or later. It is rumored that Chinese customs will also increase the time needed to complete inspections to 25 days. The uptick in Chinese purchases from the U.S. during December-January will probably not clear customs in China until March-May when imports from Brazil will also begin their seasonal spike.  

Beef Safeguards: Blaming Imports for China's Own Destabilizing Events

China's commerce officials blamed surging imports for a decline in beef prices to justify "safeguard" tariffs on imported beef announced last week. In fact, gyrations in Chinese beef prices were due to destabilizing events in China's own market. 

Chinese officials suggested that a rising trend in beef imports drove down beef prices during 2019-2024. In fact, 2019-24 was a 6-year-long beef bubble that inflated and then popped. The phony "analysis" by China's Commerce Ministry ignored the inverted-U-shaped pattern of prices: the average price of beef reported by China's Ag Ministry rose 20% from RMB 73.20 per KG in 2024 to a peak of RMB 87.59 in 2022. Then the price fell 18% to RMB 71.89 in 2024. During 2019-2022 China's beef imports AND its domestic prices both increased, undermining the claim that rising imports caused prices to fall. Beef imports then stabilized between 2022 and 2024. Prices declined sharply in 2024, but the increase in imports that year was much more moderate than in earlier years. 

Average annual wholesale prices from China Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
Import data from China Customs Administration.

The rise in beef imports during 2019-21 helped fill a meat shortage in China that turned into a glut. Monthly price data from China's Ag Ministry show that the increase in beef prices occurred during a concentrated period of 2019-20. This was exactly the time that China had a severe pork shortage due to an African swine fever epidemic. The boom in beef prices exactly corresponds to the much larger spike in pork prices during that time. The shortage of pork spurred an increase in demand for beef that drove up prices. Most of the increase in China's beef imports occurred during 2020.

The peak in beef prices during 2021-22 corresponds to the recovery of the pork industry which drove down pork prices, reducing the incentive to substitute beef for pork. Beef imports continued growing at a more moderate pace. 2022-23 was a time of high commodity prices across the board.

Data from China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.

In early 2023 China's demand for beef and many other commodities crashed. After China ended its zero-covid lockdowns in late 2022 the economy began to tank in early 2023. Beef demand peaked and beef prices began a severe decline. Pork was in excess supply as a handful of huge pork companies raced to open industrial-scale farms and capture market share. The dairy industry also encountered a glut, and a massive cull of dairy cows added to the beef supply in 2023. 

Last year this blog discussed the recent fluctuation in China's beef and dairy industry and the announcement of emergency measures to bail out beef and dairy farms in September 2024. The safeguard tariff investigation began about 3 months later; bailouts for beef and dairy were also ordered in the 2025 "Document No. 1" on rural policy. 

Converting China's domestic prices to U.S. dollars and comparing them with export prices reported in FAO's GIEWS database shows that China's price rose much faster than U.S. or Brazilian prices during 2019-20, creating a huge spread between Chinese beef prices and imported beef prices. Brazil is the predominant supplier of China's imports. Brazil's price is still about half of China's internal price after the drop in Chinese prices. U.S. beef prices have risen to parity with Chinese prices. 

China's Ministry of Ag price converted to USD.
U.S. and Brazil export prices from UN FAO GIEWS database.

China is blaming its trading partners for gyrations in its beef industry that actually were created by destabilizing events within China and by subsidized overexpansion of its beef and pork production capacity. The surge of beef imports filled a vacuum in meat supply during 2019-20. When China's domestic pork and beef producers overexpanded and drove down prices, officials spuriously interpreted correlation as "causation" and falsely blamed the industry's troubles on imports. 

Brazilian industry groups quoted by Reuters raised concerns about the Chinese tariffs. An Australian official suggested that the Chinese safeguards are an example of departure from the rules-based trading order and inconsistent application of rules. A kowtowing Uruguayan meat industry official praised China's transparency and its adherence to WTO law in imposing the safeguard measures. 

Fortunately, the safeguards will not have a major impact on exporters because global beef supplies are tight and prices are high. The safeguard tariffs don't kick in until trading partners' exports exceed an annual quota based on recent export volumes. Brazilian and Australian officials were confident they could find other markets for their beef if sales to China are curtailed. China's beef imports for the first 11 months of 2025 were about the same as the previous year. Beef prices in China are up nearly 8% year-over-year in December 2025--one of the few agricultural commodities with rising prices this year.