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China's Soybean Imports Increased to 12.9 mmt in September. How?

China imported 12.9 million metric tons (mmt) of soybeans in September 2025, according to summary data released by the customs administration. The import total was up from the previous month's 12.3-mmt total, and it was the 2nd-highest-ever monthly volume after May's 13.9 mmt. 

China is still importing nearly all of its soybeans from Brazil, a pattern that surely continued in September. China has not yet released detailed data that will reveal the source of beans imported in September, but it is surprising that imports increased from the previous month with South American supplies shrinking after the Southern Hemisphere marketing season passed its seasonal peak. 

The chart below shows that China's monthly fluctuations in imports have reflected changes in imports from Brazil over the last 2 years. Last year China's imports from Brazil peaked in August and began declining month-to-month by 2-mmt during Sept-Nov. This year imports from Brazil peaked in May at 12.1 mmt and were between 10.4 and 10.6 mmt during June-August. The seasonal pattern suggests a decline in imports from Brazil in September.

Data from China Administration of Customs.

The chart below overlays China's imports from Brazil with Brazil's exports of soybeans to China. There seems to be a consistent 2-month lag between Brazil's exports and China's imports of Brazilian beans.  Brazil's monthly soybean exports to China began falling in July, fell about 2.7 mmt in August and fell about 1.4 mmt September (Brazil releases its customs data earlier than China does). Brazil's July exports suggest a China import volume from Brazil of about 9.6 mmt in September. Given a total of 12.9 mmt, that suggests about 3.3 mmt came from other sources in September.

Data from China and Brazilian customs.

For reference, the most recent detailed China customs data for August 2025 show 10.5 mmt of the 12.3-mmt import total came from Brazil. If imports from Brazil declined to 9.6 mmt in September, imports from other sources -- Argentina 1 mmt in August, Uruguay 444,000 mt in August, Russia 46,000 mt in August, Canada 22,000 mt in August, and Ukraine 4,000 mt in August -- would have to double to achieve the September import total of 12.9 mmt. (China also reported 227,000 mt of imports from the U.S. in August even though no U.S. exports to China have been reported since April--perhaps these were stuck in prolonged inspections or released from bonded warehouses). 


We'll find the answer next week when detailed data are released.

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