China's Food Prices Under Downward Pressure

The food component of China's CPI for September 2025 was down -4.4% from a year ago, while the nonfood component was up 0.7%, according to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics. The overall CPI was down -0.3% from a year ago.

Prices were down from a year ago for most food categories. Pork (-17%), vegetables (-13.7%), and eggs (-11.9%) stood out with the largest year-over-year declines in price. Fresh fruit (-4.2%), edible oils and milk (both -1.4%) and grains (-0.7%) were also down year-over-year. 

While food prices in September were down from a year ago, prices were up 0.7% from the previous month (August). Vegetables, eggs, and fruit were up from the previous month.

The Food CPI is cyclical. This month's year-over-year declines reflect a reversal of increases that occurred a year ago, especially for pork and vegetables. A year ago, China's Food CPI was up +3.3% in September 2024, and it was down -3.2% in September 2023. Pork, in particular, remains highly cyclical, registering a 17% decrease in September 2025, a 16% year-over year increase in September 2024, and a -22% decrease in September 2023. 

Data from China National Bureau of Statistics.

The informal title of "Consumer Pork Index" still applies due to the role of pork price fluctuations in the CPI. According to the Statistics Bureau report, the decline in vegetable prices contributed -0.35 percentage points to the overall CPI decline, pork contributed -0.26 percentage points, and eggs contributed -0.08 percentage points.

The decline in pork prices has gained momentum during October. Wholesale prices started falling in mid-September. The average price for a lean pork carcass reported at Beijing's Xinfadi market declined from RMB 8.9 per 500g on September 9 to RMB 7.4 per 500g on October 18, a cumulative decline of nearly 17% in about 5 weeks. A number of videos on Chinese social media marvel at incredibly low pork prices in consumer markets around the country.

Average price for a lean pork carcass, Beijing Xinfadi.com.cn.

Industrial prices in September were down year-over-year: the producer price index for industrial products ex-factory was down -2.3% from a year ago. The index of raw material prices was down -3.1% year-over-year. 

The industrial producer price index for food products ex-factory was down -1.7% year-over-year in September. The textile industry PPI was down -2.4% and the clothing and apparel PPI was down -0.6% from a year ago.