Skip to main content

China's Infant Formula Market Shrinks as Births Decline

China's market for infant formula is shrinking along with the number of babies. According to China's National Bureau of Statistics, the number of births fell by half between 2016 and 2023, from 18.7 million to about 9 million. Customs data show that China's imports of infant formula (HS code 190110) peaked in 2019 and fell 33% by 2023. Imports for January-August 2024 are down another 20% from the same period in 2023.

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics and Customs Administration.

Many Chinese companies import milk powder in bulk to manufacture infant formula and all kinds of other milk products in China. Customs data show that imports of bulk milk powder peaked in 2021 and fell 40% by 2023. Bulk milk powder imports are also down 20% in January-August 2024 from a year earlier. 

A January 2023 article noting the decline in dairy imports quoted a food industry analyst who blamed China's sustained decline in births for a "crisis" in the industry. The analyst surmised that a decline in dairy imports is the inevitable result of the "loss of the demographic dividend." 

Perhaps it would be more apt to describe this as payment of a demographic debt. 

An August China Business Herald article pointed to double-digit declines in infant formula imports during the first half of 2024 as an indicator that China's milk powder business is becoming increasingly difficult. This article contrasted positive growth reported in financial reports of European dairy companies with the shrinking volume of China's infant formula imports. According to an industry analyst quoted by China Business Herald, the Chinese infant formula market is consolidating as leading foreign companies do well while medium and small companies--both domestic and foreign--are struggling. 

However, it will still be a crowded market for a while. Chinese authorities recently required infant formula manufacturers to pass a second round of registration audits to certify compliance with China's unique standards for infant formula. China Business Herald reported unofficial data showing that 409 infant formula products manufactured by 93 companies were registered by July. Twenty percent of the registered facilities were overseas. 

 

Labels:

Comments

rachitsingh said…
The decline in China’s infant formula market highlights the importance of adapting to demographic shifts. For companies looking to enter this sector, understanding regulatory requirements and completing company registration in China and certification processes are key to success in this competitive market.
January 31, 2025 at 4:11 AM
Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Xi Jinping's Doctoral Thesis

Xi Jinping is the vice president and presumed next president of China but little is known about him. In this post the dimsums blog offers its contribution to the genre of Xi Jinping-ology by conveying Xi's decade-old views on agricultural markets. Ten years ago Xi Jinping wrote a thesis, "Tentative Study of Agricultural Marketization" (中国农村市场化研究) for a Doctor of Law degree at Tsinghua University in Beijing, a top breeding-ground for Chinese officials. The dimsums blogger has spent several hours poring over the 200-plus page tome to see what it reveals about Dr. Xi. The thesis is remarkably close to what China has been doing lately in agricultural policy, suggesting that Xi (or the person who actually wrote the thesis) has a major say in policy or is at least in agreement with what's being done. There is nothing adventurous, controversial (or insightful) in the thesis. It seems to be the work of a wonkish technocrat who is not prone to talk out of turn or wander from...
15 comments
Read more

China's 2024 Ag Imports Shrank in Value

China's agricultural imports declined 7.9 percent during 2024 to reach $215 billion, according to data posted on the customs administration website. The 2024 value was lower than each of the 3 preceding years. Agricultural exports were up 4.1 percent to reach $103 billion. Source: Data from China Customs Administration December reports. The top two agricultural import categories by value both declined. Soybeans ($52.75 billion in 2024) fell 10.9 percent, and meat ($23.38 billion) fell 15.1 percent. Cereal grain imports ($15 billion) were down 28 percent and fish & shellfish imports ($18.5 billion) were down 6.2 percent. Edible oils imports ($10.6 billion) were down 17.8 percent. Fruit, rubber, cotton and wool and beverage imports were up for the year. The decline in value of imports partly reflected a decline in prices. Customs reported that the volume of soybean imports for calendar year 2024 reached a record 105 million metric tons, up 5.6 million metric tons from the previou...
Post a Comment
Read more

China: Record Meat & Grain Output in 2025; Declining Farm Prices and Imports

China's 2025 agricultural production data shows meat output grew 4.2%, exceeding 100 million metric tons for the first time, while grain output grew 1.2% to 714.88 mmt. Soybeans stood out with growing imports during 2025, but most of China's other agricultural imports went down. Most agricultural prices also went down, reflecting an economy that appears weaker than the 5% GDP growth reported for 2025. Meat output growth featured 4.1% growth in pork output, 6.7% growth in poultry, and 2.8% growth in beef, according to the China National Bureau of Statistics preliminary data release for 2025 . Milk production grew marginally, and production of eggs and mutton fell. This blog previously reported the Bureau's report of a record grain harvest and 7.7-percent increase in cotton output . Trade data released by the customs administration show imports of wheat, corn and cotton plummeted during calendar year 2025. Imported soybeans rose 6.5 percent last year to 111.83 mmt, compris...
Post a Comment
Read more