Raising Grain Yields by Replacing Small-Scale Farmers

China's Agriculture Ministry is campaigning to bring farmers up to speed on the latest seeds and techniques so they can achieve higher crop yields. The details suggest that a core part of the plan is to accelerate the consolidation of farms into larger mechanized operations to replace fragmented plots cultivated by aging villagers using outdated techniques.

A Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) video conference on September 25 explained that Xi Jinping has decreed that raising grain yields across broad areas of farmland will be central to boosting grain production capacity in "the new situation." All agricultural departments and communist party organizations were therefore instructed to elevate yield-improvement over broad areas as a key priority. 

A Chinese State Council press conference on September 16 announced that 702 counties were chosen this year to implement a broad-area yield improvement plan (粮油作物大面积单产提升行动). The objective is to disseminate seeds, techniques and equipment that facilitate high yields achieved in experimental plots to the broader population of farmers. The goal is to attain yields over a broad area of fields that are closer to yields achieved in experimental plots. 

A January State media article about the campaign presented yields from experimental plots and actual farm yields for rice, wheat, and corn to quantify the task. The data imply that the corn yield on experimental plots exceeds the yield obtained by Chinese farmers by 3225 KG per hectare, while the gap for rice farmers' yields is 1875 KG, and the gap for wheat farmers is only 525 KG. 

2023 data from Xinhua News Service, January 30, 2025. Converted from original data in KG per mu.

Official data on Chinese farmers' grain yields indicates they have been growing on a linear trend. If average corn yields, for example, continue on their historical growth trend of 80 KG/hectare per year, it would take about 40 years to reach the yield on experimental plots. For reference, USDA projects 2025 corn yields of 6660 KG for China, a record-high 11,720 KG for the United States (amid much controversy), 7270 KG for Ukraine, 6910 KG for the EU, and 5800 KG for Brazil. A linear trend for U.S. yields indicates they are growing 114 KG/ha/year, faster than growth in China's yield.

Average national yields reported by China National Bureau of Statistics.

The September 25 video conference emphasized prioritization of subsidies for agricultural machinery such as high-performance seeding equipment, tillage and land preparation machines, drones for spraying chemicals, and efficient grain combine harvesters that minimize loss of grains. It also called for subsidizing grain storage facilities in the north to reduce losses from storing grain in outdoor courtyards, ventilated and waterproof grain storage facilities in south China, and grain drying equipment (to prevent post-harvest molding). 

A video training meeting held by Shandong Province officials last week instructed all localities to "secure the final victory" by minimizing waste in procurement and marketing of this year's fall crops and by following instructions for planting the winter wheat crop by precise spacing of seeds and use of pest and disease control measures to ensure a bumper harvest next year. 

A regional rice yield improvement meeting held by MARA during April cited several key initiatives: centralized production of rice seeds, "reasonable" increases in planting density, application of side-dressing fertilizer to rice plants, a spray that combines growth promoting agents with pesticides and herbicides, and efforts to convince farmers to plant two crops of rice per year. 

A May activity held in a town of Zhejiang Province featured demonstration of a 6-row rice transplanting machine supplied by an agricultural machinery company in Guizhou Province as part of the rice yield improvement campaign.

State media are highlighting a parallel initiative to set up networks of "comprehensive agricultural service centers" that are expected to disseminate seeds, farm equipment and technical advice. However, descriptions of these service centers emphasize their role in consolidating farms under the control of large-scale companies and cooperatives and the promotion of mechanization. A common theme of the articles on agricultural service centers is the need to consolidate farmland into larger operations to prevent idling of land as small holders migrate and age. 

An agricultural service center in Inner Mongolia featured in State media this year offers corn seeds and specialized equipment as part of a project to promote dense corn planting to raise yields begun in 2020. Its description in State media featured an "Agricultural Production Management Contract Signing Ceremony" in April where 30 families from Fuxing village turned over 300 mu (20 hectares) of land to be farmed by a company this year. The communist party secretary organized the transfer of all of the village's farmland to an agricultural trust company that conducts all farming operations. He said families were willing to turn over their land because they didn't earn that much from farming it themselves in recent years. The center's "company + village collective + household" model and its agricultural machinery cooperative service also seems to reflect land consolidation and large scale farming as a priority. This agricultural service center hopes to establish branches in every town and village in the county. 

Villagers sign over farmland at an agricultural service center in Inner Mongolia.

A 2022 Farmers Daily description of an agricultural service center in Sichuan Province also highlighted its role in mechanizing farming and bringing abandoned land back into production as outmigration shrinks the number of farmers. It described a model that links up local supply and marketing cooperatives (a quasi-governmental system established to supply inputs and market products during the planned economy era), village collective organizations, farmer cooperatives, and rural banks. The article cited the cooperative's trusteeship farming services for bringing idle land back into production. One farmer claimed he earns 1,000 yuan per mu after paying a company to farm his land on his behalf. 

An IT company that operates agricultural service centers in Jiangsu Province promising to promote high-tech farming describes what sounds quite similar to China's established top-down bureaucratic system. The provincial center receives timely information on policy and market dynamics and issues "strategic guidance" for county level agricultural development.  The municipal level service center plays a coordinating role in allocating resources and matching up suppliers with customers. The county service center allocates land, labor and machinery to implement local farming projects. The service center is supposed to allow farmers to choose suppliers of seed, fertilizer, pesticides, machinery services, and technical advice through an internet platform. 

The centers are operated by a varying group of subsidized commercial and bureaucratic actors. An announcement by Guangdong Province invites applications to operate agricultural service centers at the county, town and village levels. Applicants can expect to receive subsidies for 50% of the cost of agricultural machinery. They can receive funding for storage sheds, labor for integrated pest management, promotion of products, technical advisors, training for repair of machinery, and promotion of financial services. Applicants for county or town agricultural service centers can be agricultural companies, cooperatives, or other new types of farming operations. Village-level centers can be operated by village collective organizations. 

All information on yield improvement comes from State media which proclaims great success, but a few cracks in the facade show up.

Several problems were acknowledged at this year's regional rice yield improvement meeting: inaccurate design, inadequate implementation, lax supervision, and failure to distribute funds in a timely manner. 

Several years ago officials in the supply and marketing cooperatives--one of the organizations operating agricultural service centers--were investigated for widespread corruption. Corruption continued into this year in at least one supply and marketing cooperative in Guangdong Province. An investigation of Guizhou Province's supply and marketing cooperatives reported an unhealthy trend in corruption and mismanagement. A similar videoconference held by Fujian Province's agriculture department also called for rectifying corruption and mismanagement in its agricultural system. 

China's subsidies for promoting new crop varieties and agricultural machinery have a long history of corruption and abuse. The subsidies for improved crop varieties were abandoned 10 years ago. A network of township agricultural land exchanges started up about 15 years ago seem to have quietly disappeared.