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China's Feed Output Dropped 6.6 MMT in 2024

China's production of livestock feed totaled 315 million metric tons (MMT) in 2024, down 6.6 MMT (-2.1%) from the previous year, according to a report from China's feed industry association. The 2024 output was still the second-largest output level on record. This was the first decline in China's feed output since it tumbled 8.8-MMT in 2019 during China's African Swine Fever epidemic. 

According to the report, the value of feed industry output declined 10% and operating income fell 11.9%. 

By comparison, official data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics show production of meat and eggs (consumers of most of the feed) increased marginally, by 356,000 metric tons, in 2024. Feed output was 2.38 times the output of meat and eggs.

Source: compiled from China Feed Industry Association reports.

Feed for hogs comprised 45.7% of the output, followed by meat poultry (31%), aquaculture (7.2%), ruminant feed (4.6%), pet food (0.5%), and feed for other animals (0.8%). 

Source: Compiled from China Feed Industry Association data.

Hog feed also accounted for most of the decline in feed output, falling 5.84 MMT (down 3.9%). By comparison, pork production fell by a relatively modest 883,000 metric tons last year. Feed for cattle and sheep plunged by 2.22 MMT (down 13.3%), aquaculture feed output was down 824,000 metric tons (down 3.5%), and feed for laying hens was down 383,000 metric tons (down 1.2%). Feed for meat poultry was the bright spot, rising 2.43 MMT (up 2.6%). Poultry meat output was up 970,000 metric tons. Thus, changes in hog and poultry feed use were both much larger than the corresponding changes in meat output. Feed conversion ratios are typically around 3:1 for hogs and under 2:1 for poultry.

Source: Compiled from China Feed Industry Association reports.

According to the report, production of amino acids reached 6.026 MMT, skyrocketing by 21.7% in 2024. Production of vitamins, however, fell 2.9% to reach 1.425 MMT.

The dynamics of soybean meal and corn use in feed reported are inconsistent with import trends. The report said use of soybean meal by feed manufacturers declined by 2.06 MMT in 2024, but China's customs data show that imports of soybeans increased by more than 6 MMT in 2024. According to the report, use of corn increased 7.93 MMT, while imports of corn decreased by 13.4 MMT. The report said use of wheat in feed plummeted by 52.8% and use of rice decreased 51.3%. The report did not mention sorghum or barley use in feed. 

Shandong Province was clearly the leader in feed manufacturing with output of 46.48 MMT in 2024. Guangdong Province produced 36.8 MMT, and Guangxi Autonomous Region produced 23.8 MMT. Thirteen provinces posted declines in feed output, including a 1.4-percent decline in Shandong's output, while Guangxi's output rose 3.7 percent and Guangdong's output rose 2 percent. 

Shandong posted the largest decrease in hog feed output, with a decline of 1.58 MMT. This is consistent with other news that hog production has been moving out of Shandong due to disease problems and shifting to southern provinces. Henan and Hubei Provinces also had large declines in hog feed output, while hog feed production grew in Guangxi. Shandong is the dominant poultry feed producer, and its output increased 2 percent.

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