More People Are Dying in China, Stats Bureau Says

We know Chinese folks don't want to have babies, but it turns out Chinese people are dying in unprecedented numbers as well. An extra 11.3 million people died in 2023. Males and rural people are disappearing at the fastest rates. 

China's birth rate was record-low in 2023 but its death rate was also record-high as its population plunged by 1.48%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. This is the second year China has reported a drop in population (last year it dropped 0.06%). The plunging birth rate is the main factor pushing China's population over the cliff's edge, but China's people are also dying faster. 

China's birth rate fell to 6.4% in 2023 as the country recorded 9.02 million births. That was down more than half from the rate in 2016 and almost 17 percentage points less than the 1987 peak of 23.3%.

China's death rate has been more stable than its birth rate, but there's a clear upswing in deaths over the last 3 years.  

Source: Data from China's National Bureau of Statistics and 2023 Statistical Communique.

The death rate was steady before suddenly creeping up to 7.18% in 2021, 7.37% in 2022, and 7.87% in 2023. These are all record highs. China's death rate was 6.4%-6.6% during 1980-2005 and bumped to the previous record of 7.14% in 2011 before reaching an average of 7.07% during 2015-20.

For some reason Chinese people have been dying in greater numbers over the last 3 years. We can calculate the "excess deaths" by comparing the actual number of deaths with the number that would have occurred if Chinese people had continued dying at 7.07% per year as they had done during 2015-2020. China's statistics bureau reported 111 million deaths in 2023, but only 99.8 million would have died at the rate recorded during 2015-20. That's 11.3 million "excess deaths" in 2023. The calculations show "excess deaths" increased year by year, from 1.6 million in 2021, to 4.3 million in 2022, and 11.3 million in 2023. The 65-and-over folks comprised 14.2% of the population in 2023.

The aging of China's population does not explain the surge in the death rate. The proportion of people aged 65 and older was already rising (from 10% to 12.6% during 2015-20) without causing an increase in the overall death rate.  

China's population decline is hitting men more than women. In 2023 China's male population declined 1.74 million but its female population declined by only 340,000. The same disparity between male and female population change occurred in 2022 and 2021. The statistic bureau's data indicate that China lost 3 million males between 2020 and 2023 and gained 910,000 females over those 3 years. (The 2020 data look implausible, probably because that year's census provided some surprises that were massaged by the statisticians.)

China appears to be losing people mainly in the countryside. The population in cities and towns went up 12 million in 2023, but the rural population went down by 14 million. This is the first year that losses in the countryside exceeded gains in urban population. 

So it looks like there has been a rural disease epidemic striking mainly rural men, unreported civil war in the countryside, or a wave of executions of rural men. Or maybe the migrants who fled to the U.S. border were counted as dead. What's happening China?