Skip to main content

Ag Prices in China Declined During Fall Months

Falling agricultural prices suggest something happened to let the air out of China's economy in October. 

Weekly farm commodity procurement prices reported by the State Commodity Reserves Administration showed steep declines in corn and soybean prices during October; they seemed to stabilize in November. Rice prices increased and wheat prices were relatively steady.

Calculated from weekly procurement prices reported by
State Administration of Grain and Commodity Reserves 

Most agricultural raw material prices paid by enterprises peaked in September and fell at varying paces during October and November. 

Calculated from prices reported three times per month by China National Bureau of Statistics.

The two data sources agree that corn and soybean prices went down over the last three months and rice prices went up. Soybean meal had the steepest decline (-17.5%), followed by peanuts (-15.7%) and hogs (-13.2%).

Calculated from price indices shown above.

Monthly CPI reports indicate a downshift in prices in October-November. The food component of the CPI went up 0.2% in September, dropped 0.4% in October and dropped 0.6% in November. These indexes imply a 1% cumulative drop in food prices during October-November. Grain and fruit were the only food components of the CPI that went up over the last two months. The steepest declines over the last two months were for eggs (-6.2%), vegetables (-5.9%), pork (-4.9%), and aqua products (-3%).


Hog prices peaked first--in August--at 17.3 yuan per kg according to the NBS raw material price survey. During the 4 months that followed hog prices dropped 16% to 14.5 yuan per kg in late November despite October holidays and the approaching Lunar new year holiday, usually the peak consumption period. 
Average raw material prices paid by enterprises 3 times per month,
reported by China National Bureau of Statistics.


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Xi Jinping's Doctoral Thesis

Xi Jinping is the vice president and presumed next president of China but little is known about him. In this post the dimsums blog offers its contribution to the genre of Xi Jinping-ology by conveying Xi's decade-old views on agricultural markets. Ten years ago Xi Jinping wrote a thesis, "Tentative Study of Agricultural Marketization" (中国农村市场化研究) for a Doctor of Law degree at Tsinghua University in Beijing, a top breeding-ground for Chinese officials. The dimsums blogger has spent several hours poring over the 200-plus page tome to see what it reveals about Dr. Xi. The thesis is remarkably close to what China has been doing lately in agricultural policy, suggesting that Xi (or the person who actually wrote the thesis) has a major say in policy or is at least in agreement with what's being done. There is nothing adventurous, controversial (or insightful) in the thesis. It seems to be the work of a wonkish technocrat who is not prone to talk out of turn or wander from...
15 comments
Read more

China's 2024 Ag Imports Shrank in Value

China's agricultural imports declined 7.9 percent during 2024 to reach $215 billion, according to data posted on the customs administration website. The 2024 value was lower than each of the 3 preceding years. Agricultural exports were up 4.1 percent to reach $103 billion. Source: Data from China Customs Administration December reports. The top two agricultural import categories by value both declined. Soybeans ($52.75 billion in 2024) fell 10.9 percent, and meat ($23.38 billion) fell 15.1 percent. Cereal grain imports ($15 billion) were down 28 percent and fish & shellfish imports ($18.5 billion) were down 6.2 percent. Edible oils imports ($10.6 billion) were down 17.8 percent. Fruit, rubber, cotton and wool and beverage imports were up for the year. The decline in value of imports partly reflected a decline in prices. Customs reported that the volume of soybean imports for calendar year 2024 reached a record 105 million metric tons, up 5.6 million metric tons from the previou...
Post a Comment
Read more

Feed Boom & Cratering Grain Imports; China Leaves Us Guessing

In the first half of 2025 China increased its meat and egg production by a combined 1.58 million metric tons (mmt) from a year earlier, a moderate increase of 2.5%. Meanwhile, animal feed output during H1 2025 compiled from feed industry association reports increased by 14.5 mmt (+10 percent) from a year ago. China's 14.5-mmt increase feed output growth outpaced the 1.58-mmt growth in meat production by a ratio of 9:1. It's hard to make sense of these inconsistent figures.  [note: The June 2025 feed industry association report has a 7.7% yoy growth rate for feed output which is inconsistent with the 10.1% growth shown here calculated by comparing data from monthly reports issued last year. Growth rates for complete feed were 8.1%, concentrates -1.5%; additives 6.9%. These inconsistencies are common in the feed industry association reports, a reason for doubting the accuracy of this data.] There is no boom in demand for feed ingredients to fuel a huge increase in feed production...
Post a Comment
Read more