Ministry of Ag S&D Estimates (Apr 2017)

Only modest changes were made in commodity supply and demand estimates released in the April 2017 China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE) released by the Ministry of Agriculture.

Feed use of corn for 2016/17 was revised downward by 500,000 mt due to low inventories of swine and continued high imports of corn substitutes--sorghum and barley. However, 2016/17 soybean consumption was raised by 940,000 mt due to an increase in consumption of soybean meal for feed.

Corn imports for 2016/17 were revised upward to 1 mmt, which CASDE authors attribute to high operation rates by industrial processors in the northeast (the logic is not clear here, especially since the CASDE made no change in consumption of corn for industrial processing) and an increase in imports of cheap corn from Ukraine. (Note: the CASDE balance sheet has included the wrong 2015/16 corn import number since February.)

China corn supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, April 2017)
Item	Unit	2015/16	2016/17 Mar	2016/17 Apr
Planted area	1000 ha	38,117	36,026	36,026
Harvested area	1000 ha	38,117	36,021	36,021
Yield	Kg/ha	5,892	5,978	5,978
Production	MMT	224.58	215.33	215.33
Imports	MMT	5.52	0.8	1
Consumption	MMT	194.09	211.22	210.72
--Food	MMT	7.65	7.82	7.82
--Feed	MMT	121.01	133.53	133.03
--Industrial use	MMT	54.17	58.25	58.25
--Seed	MMT	1.7	1.61	1.61
--Loss and other	MMT	9.56	10.01	10.01
Exports	MMT	0.01	0.5	0.5
Surplus	MMT	35.99	4.41	5.11
*2015/16 import volume shown in CASDE should be 3.2 mmt; surplus is also overstated.

Soybean imports for 2016/17 were revised upward to 86.55 mmt, 1.24 mmt more than estimated last month. CASDE expects soybean import demand to be stimulated by low world prices attributed to a record harvest of South American soybeans. CASDE explains that the expected increase in soybean meal consumption is due to its price advantage over other feeds.

China soybean supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, April 2017)
Item	Unit	2015/16	2016/17 Mar	2016/17 Apr
Planted area	1000 ha	6,590	7,156	7,156
Harvested area	1000 ha	6,590	7,150	7,150
Yield	Kg/ha	1,762	1758	1758
Production	MMT	11.61	12.57	12.57
Imports	MMT	82.89	85.31	86.55
Consumption	MMT	96.67	99.87	100.81
--Crushing	MMT	82.89	85.50	86.12
--Food	MMT	10.35	11.18	11.18
--Seed	MMT	0.54	0.61	0.61
Loss and other	MMT	2.89	2.58	2.9
Exports	MMT	0.11	0.2	0.2
Surplus	MMT	-1.96	-2.19	-1.89

CASDE revised its estimate of 2016/17 edible oil production upward by 220,000 mt to 26.11 mmt. This reflects mainly a 200,000-mt increase in soybean oil production, which in turn reflects larger imports of soybeans. Rapeseed oil production has been revised downward by 10,000 mt due to poor growing conditions in some regions.

China edible oils supply and demand (Min Agriculture, April 2017)
Item	Unit	2015/16	2016/17 Mar	2016/17 Apr
Production	MMT	25.3	25.89	26.11
--Soy oil	MMT	14.74	15.17	15.37
--Rapeseed oil	MMT	5.6	5.61	5.6
--Peanut oil	MMT	3.01	3.18	3.18
Imports	MMT	5.81	5.6	5.6
--Palm oil	MMT	3.39	3.25	3.25
--Rapeseed oil	MMT	0.77	0.75	0.75
--Soy oil	MMT	0.59	0.58	0.58
Consumption	MMT	31.17	31.43	31.43
--Urban	MMT	20.95	21.4	21.4
--Rural	MMT	10.22	10.03	10.03
Exports	MMT	0.12	0.13	0.13
Surplus	MMT	-0.18	-0.07	0.15

No changes were made in the cotton S&D.

China cotton supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, April 2017)
Item	Unit	2015/16	2016/17 Mar	2016/17 Apr
Begin inventory	MMT	12.8	11.11	11.11
Planted area	1000 ha	3,267	3,100	3,100
Yield	Kg/ha	1,510	1,523	1,523
Production	MMT	4.93	4.72	4.72
Imports	MMT	0.96	0.90	0.90
Consumption	MMT	7.56	7.59	7.59
Exports	MMT	0.02	0.01	0.01
End Inventory	MMT	11.11	9.13	9.13

CASDE revised its estimate of 2016/17 sugar output downward by 450,000 metric tons to 9.25 mmt. Agricultural officials on the ground have observed that area planted in sugar is less than previously estimated.

China sugar supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, April 2017)
Item	Unit	2015/16	2016/17 Mar	2016/17 Apr
Planted area	1000 ha	1423	1433	1349
--sugar cane	1000 ha	1295	1270	1181
--sugar beets	1000 ha	128	163	168
Yield
--sugar cane	MT/ha	60.3	60	60
--sugar beets	MT/ha	53.85	52.5	52.5
Sugar output	MMT	8.7	9.7	9.25
--sugar cane	MMT	7.85	8.65	8.22
--sugar beets	MMT	0.85	1.05	1.03
Imports	MMT	3.73	3.5	3.5
Consumption	MMT	15.2	15	15
Exports	MMT	0.15	0.07	0.07
Surplus	MMT	-2.92	-1.87	-2.32