U.S. and Chinese officials are discussing agricultural trade issues ahead of Xi Jinping's expected September 24 visit to Washington. China has committed to purchase 25 million metric tons of soybeans from the U.S. annually and $17 billion of other agricultural products, according to White House announcements following the May 2026 and October 2025 meetings between Xi and Trump. It has been reported that the two sides are discussing tariff cuts for agricultural products. Previously, the idea of a bilateral board of trade to manage imports and exports has been floated.
Taking stock of the status of U.S. agricultural exports to China so far in 2026 indicates China has progressed well on its soybean purchase commitment, but exports of non-soybean farm goods are a long way from the $17 billion target--even if prorated this year.
China apparently met its commitment to purchase at least 12 mmt of U.S. soybeans by early July. The target was originally supposed to be met in December 2025, but that didn't happen. The deadline was extended to the end of "the growing season." Watchers interpreted this to be the market year for U.S. soybeans harvested last Fall. The 2025/26 market year ended in August 2026 with 12.36 mmt of cumulative sales and exports to China, according to USDA data. A new market year for the upcoming harvest started this month (September).
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| Compiled from USDA export sales and China customs data. |
No specifics have been announced regarding how soybean sales for 2026 and later years will be counted. Most analysts are presuming that the 25 mmt target will be for the 2026/27 marketing year (September 2026 through August 2027). Chinese buyers have committed to purchase nearly 9 mmt of U.S. soybeans for MY2026/27 as of September 10. (However, a conundrum arises if the targets are on a calendar year basis. China purchased 5.5 mmt of 2025/26 soybeans during January-July 2026 that most trackers have been counting toward the 2025 target. Will these purchases now be counted against a calendar year 2026 target? If so, then China did not meet the 2025 target.)
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| Compiled from USDA export sales reports. |
The history of U.S. agricultural exports to China shows that soybeans have always been the dominant component of exports--that's one reason why they are treated separately in the purchase agreement. Exports fluctuate from year to year, so a baseline for "normal" exports is hard to set. The value of exports peaked in 2012 and 22022, due in large part due to high commodity prices as well as large volumes. Exports dipped to $9.2 billion during the earlier trade war that began in mid-2018. The surge to $38 billion in 2022 also reflected the purchase commitments in the 2020 Phase One trade agreement with China. Exports were already plunging before the current trade war due to falling commodity prices and China's flagging economy that tamped down demand for imports. Exports during the first 7 months of 2026 totaled $8.8 billion, of which $4.9 billion was soybeans.
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| USDA Global Agricultural Trade System. |
The annual target is for China to buy $17 billion of agricultural products excluding soybeans. Exports have only exceeded that target in two years. The peak was $20.1 billion in 2022. Exports of non-soy ag products totaled just $3.9 billion in the first 7 months of 2026. That's $13.1 billion below the $17 billion target, although the White House said 2026 would be "prorated." Exports are up slightly from $3.4 billion last year.
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| Agricultural exports - soybean exports. Calculated from USDA GATS data. |
Non-soybean agricultural exports to China have been in the range of $500-to-$700 million per month during the first 7 months of 2026. If exports continued at the current pace of $600 million per month during Aug-Dec, the December total would reach $6.9 billion. They would have to quadruple to $2.6 billion per month in the last 5 months of the year to reach $17 billion target by December--but this year's target will be prorated in a way that has not been revealed. At $1.5 billion per month--more than double the pace in the first 7 months--the December total would reach $11.4 billion.
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| Jan-July 2026 data from USDA GATS. Aug-Dec exports projected using assumptions of monthly values for those months. |
Some analysts have pointed out that purchases of corn are critical to meeting the non-soybean purchase commitment. Using the peak year of 2021 as a reference, corn was indeed the largest non-soybean export that year with $24.57 billion. In the last 3 years, China has curbed corn imports dramatically from all sources. So far in 2026 U.S. corn exports to China are only $7 million. Whether China can ramp up corn imports again seems critical to meeting the commitment. Sorghum exports are also on a relatively slow pace this year, as are cotton and wheat compared to their 2021 pace. Sorghum exports were nearly $2 billion in 2021 and only $883 million so far in 2026. Exports of meat and cotton are also far below 50% of their 2021 totals. Seafood is the only category that is on a good pace.
China is importing a lot of agricultural products this year. Can China just switch suppliers to the U.S.?
Chinese authorities are worried about depressed grain prices for their own farmers, so grain imports have been low for 3 years. This issue could also be a constraint on sorghum import potential this year. Will Chinese leaders import U.S. grain and stockpile it in reserves as they did during Phase One? The U.S. just came off a record corn export year with no sales to China and prices have surged since August with concerns about the U.S. crop. Big Chinese purchases would drive corn prices much higher.
It's possible Chinese leaders are hiding damage to this year's grain crops due to flooding and drought in various regions over the summer that could lead to a surprise import campaign. However, Chinese grain prices are mostly under downward pressure ahead of this Fall's harvest.
U.S. beef supplies are tight and expensive, and China has an import quota for U.S. beef that is small. China's pork market is oversupplied. China has become a net exporter of poultry--a reflection of the weak domestic market as much as China's export prowess--and China has been rejecting U.S. chicken paws for antibiotics this year. There is some potential for fruit and nuts (China's fruit imports are mainly tropical fruits and deciduous fruits from the Southern Hemisphere). The U.S. doesn't export rubber, barley or cassava. The U.S. is ramping up use of edible oils for biodiesel in the U.S. Could China lift its antidumping duties on U.S. DDGS? Is it conceivable that China might agree to import U.S. soybean meal? Dairy may have some potential but China mainly imports whey products from the U.S. while importing most other dairy products from New Zealand and Europe.
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