China's transition to a more protein-rich diet is evident in food consumption data from its official national household survey. Pork continues to rule the roost despite growth in egg and poultry consumption, and more Chinese consumers now know where to find the beef.
Since the 1950s China's National Bureau of Statistics has conducted a household survey of income and expenditure that included per capita consumption/purchases of foods. The household survey historically had some flaws in the sampling (some were corrected in the 2013 overhaul) and it excludes food consumed in restaurants, cafeterias, and banquets, but we'll set those aside for now.
The data reflect the key trend driving Chinese food markets: consumption of animal protein is growing while consumption of carbohydrates like rice, flour, buns and noodles is dropping. The changes from 2013 to 2024 indicate a neat symmetry between the two:
- Per capita purchases of cereal grains shrank from 138.9 kg to 110.6 kg (-28.3 kg)
- Per capita purchases of meat, fish, eggs, and dairy rose from 59.8 kg to 88.1 kg. (+28.3kg)
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| Compiled from China National Bureau of Statistics household survey statistics. |
There was a brief bump in cereal grain consumption during 2020-2021 that coincided with the pandemic, but the 10-kg drop in 2024 cereal consumption was the largest ever recorded. Animal protein purchases peaked at 91.1 kg in 2023 before falling to 88.1 kg in 2024. Less noticed by observers is the rise in purchases of vegetables and fruit. In 2024, vegetable purchases were essentially equal to cereal grain purchases.
Breaking out animal protein into its components reveals surprising resilience of pork and eggs, surging beef and mutton consumption, a plateau in poultry and fish consumption, and a drop in urban dairy consumption in recent years. Rural protein consumption has caught up with urban consumption for pork, poultry, and eggs. Rural fish and dairy consumption still lags behind, but it is growing faster than urban consumption.
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| Compiled from China National Bureau of Statistics household survey statistics. |
Pork purchases dropped during the 2020 shortage due to African swine fever but the subsequent rebound was surprisingly strong. Pork purchases peaked in 2023 as rural purchases exceeded urban purchases for the first time. Poultry purchases had a bump during 2020 but have plateaued since then. There was a notable bump in beef and mutton purchases (mostly beef) in 2024. Urban dairy consumption has dropped off since 2021 while rural consumption continued to grow.
How does the household survey stack up against aggregate meat supply data (there is no statistic that measures aggregate consumption)? For many years per capita pork output was more than twice as large as the amount of purchases indicated by the household survey. It's very likely that livestock production data are overstated while household purchases understate consumption. We'll ignore the nitty gritty of reconciling the two numbers and ignore the role of imports.
Since 2020 the two data sources have become more consistent. Both data series dipped to their low point in 2020, rebounded in 2021 and peaked in 2023. The difference between the two narrowed from 2:1 to a more plausible 4:3. Both series show an increase in per-capita pork supply/purchases of more than 10kg between 2020 and 2023. We'll have to wait another year to see whether the household survey shows an increase in purchases in 2025 consistent with the increase in per capita output to 42.3 kg that year.
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| Household purchases from National Bureau of Statistics household surveys; per capita output is ratio of national pork production to population. |
Poultry output and household purchase data both showed growth through 2020. Since then, per capita output has continued growing while household purchases plateaued.
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| Household purchases from National Bureau of Statistics household surveys; per capita output is ratio of national poultry production to population. |
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