China's Grain Procurement Doubles in One Year

China reported that 308.8 million metric tons (mmt) of last fall's grain crop had been procured as of the end of February 2025. This is more than twice the amount procured a year earlier. The announcement in State media did not mention the huge increase nor explain how such an unprecedented increase in grain procurement was achieved. 

Economic Daily reported that procurement by all types of enterprises included 105 mmt of rice, 190 mmt of corn, and 10 mmt of soybeans. 

The State Administration of Food and Commodity Reserves reported only the total procurement of 308.79 mmt of fall grain with no data for individual grains except mentioning that 7.11 mmt of middle and late rice was procured through the minimum price program. 

In past years the Administration regularly reported procurement progress statistics for each type of fall grain from October through April 30 on a monthly or 10-day interval. But this year only 3 monthly reports have been posted at the end of December, January and February with no detail on procurement of each grain. 

Comparison with Fall grain procurement reports from the previous 3 Februarys shows that this year's procurement volume as of February is twice as large as in previous years. This year's procurement through February exceeds fall grain procurement for the entire season last year (200 mmt).

Source: data compiled from China's State Administration of Food and Commodity Reserves web site.

China's National Bureau of Statistics reported an 11-mmt increase in the fall grain harvest in 2024 over the previous year, but this increase does not account for the huge 150-mmt increase in procurement.

Summer grain procurement reports are issued from June through September 30. Last September the Food Reserve Administration reported that 75 mmt of summer grain had been procured from the 2024 crop. This was up 6.4 mmt from the previous year's 68.6 mmt, a more plausible increase. 

The Economic Daily announcement seems aimed at encouraging farmers to continue planting grain for next fall's crop as they face weak prices with spring planting approaching. Economic Daily commented that procurement is proceeding smoothly, in an orderly manner, and prices are rising steadily. The article highlighted the government's purchases of 7% of the fall rice harvest at the minimum price set by the government in order to stabilize prices and recent increases in corn prices.

The procurement volumes reported in past years appeared to be inconsistent with China's production data. For example, the 200 mmt procured during last year's procurement season was only 38% of the fall grain harvest. It is unlikely that more than 60 percent of grain remains on farms. The purchases are by all kinds of grain enterprises (各类粮食企业). Perhaps the statistical system found a way to account for purchases by itinerant traders who cruise villages purchasing grain by the truckload who had failed to report in previous years.