China's 2025 Central Document No. 1 appears on the surface to be a bold technocratic plan to reshape and modernize the countryside and forge links with the urban economy. A closer inspection indicates insecurity about depressed prices, peasants falling back into poverty, and farming sectors in need of protection and aid.
The document--a blueprint for this year's rural policies--rehashes ideas that have been put forth in these documents for years. For example, this year's call for a severe crackdown on smuggling of agricultural products has appeared in 12 of 16 "No. 1" documents issued since 2010.
Likewise, nearly every document orders officials to prevent loss of arable land to nonfarm uses, but this year's document adds instructions to stop specific activities--hiding rural vacation homes in faux greenhouses, digging lakes and building houses on farmland--suggesting that these activities have become rampant. It bans urban people and retired cadres from buying rural houses. This year's document instructs officials to stop farming land on river banks that affect flood safety--perhaps a problem noticed during last summer's severe flooding. One new item is the document's order to protect traditional terraces built to grow rice on mountainsides.
Another outcome of last year's flooding is concern about vegetable supplies. The document orders strengthening of vegetable emergency supply bases around medium and large cities.
Orders to prevent erosion in northeastern black soil region appear in the document in most years, but this year's document adds a new problem of "erosion gullies" to be addressed. Other soil problems are reflected by instructions to conduct pilot projects to utilize saline/alkaline farmland and stronger management of acidified and degraded land in southern regions.
Remarks by deputy chairman of the Central Financial Leading Group explained the document's pledge to create a complete agricultural supports system and to coordinate foreign trade with farm production reflects insecurity regarding low farm prices. The official reveals a series of specific price stabilization measures: the minimum price program for rice will be activated by purchasing rice in four provinces, the government will stockpile wheat and corn, and unspecified measures will increase soybean sales and promote processing. He also promised unspecified adjustment of the subsidy for cultivated land fertility, improved subsidies for corn, soybean, and rice producers, and a pilot program to subsidize credit for grain and oilseed producers.
The No. 1 Document promises to sharpen incentives for local officials to boost grain output and rehashes an old idea to make rich eastern provinces pay "real money" to grain-producing provinces.
An instruction to strengthen the biosafety inspection system at ports (which appeared in last year's document and many others) shows up in a paragraph that calls for improving the coordination mechanism between agricultural product trade and production. This suggests that inspections at ports can be made stricter when authorities want to slow down imports to ease downward pressure on domestic prices.
The document includes a promise of a bailout for beef and dairy cattle industries. Another copy-paste policy is the instruction to boost production of fodder for ruminants and upgrade hay and fodder industries. Bad behavior in the hog industry apparently continues: the document calls for strict supervision of hog slaughter and quarantine, and it urges stronger prevention and control of major animal diseases and zoonotic diseases.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting last week to address problems in the hog industry. The meeting's main theme was that there are too many sows and the number of piglets to be produced in coming months threatens to drive down prices. The directives hinted that local officials should raise entry barriers by implementing stricter environmental regulations and land approvals for farm construction. The Ministry described the disease epidemic situation as complicated and warned of continuing risks of foreign disease epidemics spreading to China. Officials were instructed to strengthen prevention and control of African swine fever, and promote immunizations against swine fever, foot-and-mouth disease, blue-ear disease, and pseudorabies. Officials were ordered to quickly deal with epidemics and hidden dangers. The document also ordered crackdowns on other old nagging problems--use of illegal feed additives like clenbuterol and illegal slaughter.
Preventing rural areas from slipping back into poverty is a second theme of this year's No. 1 Document. Among the recommendations are big job-creation programs, a stratified public assistance program for rural people, and organizing work units and companies in coastal provinces to assist poor western provinces.
Another reflection of the poor state of the Chinese economy is a renewed initiative to force employers to pay overdue wages to migrant workers. The document instructs cities to allow migrants with steady employment to participate in urban life and let their children go to school. Instructions to improve nutrition of rural school children, expand coverage of rescue and protective institutions for juveniles and improve care for children left behind in villages by migrant parents and for children in "difficult situations" are also included in the document.
A section on rural governance reveals the regime's fear of rural instability and gives some hints about the chaos in many parts of China's countryside. There are instructions to improve the mechanism for cracking down on gangsters, gambling, rural drug abuse, pyramid schemes and fraud in agriculture, and curbing the spread of "village tyrants" and evil forces of family clans. Another danger to the regime is religion--the document calls for stronger management of rural religious affairs.
Other rural hazards are reflected by instructions to investigate and rectify safety risks in rural road traffic, gas, fire protection, and self-built houses.
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