China Pork Output Plummeted 42 percent in Q3 2019

China's pork output is down 17 percent in Q1-Q3 2019, but the decline accelerated to 42 percent during the third quarter, according to data released by the country's National Bureau of Statistics. September consumer price data show an increase in all meat prices, led by a 69-percent increase in pork costs.

The Bureau's economic report on the third quarter of 2019 included estimates of meat output for the first three quarters of 2019 and percentage changes from a year earlier. The country produced 31.8 million metric tons of pork in the first three quarters of 2019, down 17.2 percent from the same period in 2018. Poultry output was 15.39 mmt, up 10.2 percent. Beef and mutton output were a combined 7.9 mmt and rose at a slower pace of 2-to-3 percent. Egg output increased 5.5 percent. The Bureau did not report any animal inventories or number of animals slaughtered.

China Livestock Production, Q1-Q3, 2019
Item	Q1-Q3 output	Change from year earlier
	Million metric tons	Percent
Pork	31.81	-17.2
Poultry	15.39	10.2
Eggs	NA	5.5
Beef	4.58	3.2
Mutton	3.3	2.3
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.

The fall in pork output accelerated during the third quarter. Pork output during Q3 2019 was 7.1 mmt, down 42 percent from Q3 2018 (calculated from the Q1 and Q2 numbers reported earlier this year). The 42-percent decline in pork produced nearly matches the 41.1-percent year-on-year decline in swine inventories reported for September by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.

Slaughter of hogs at designated slaughterhouses reported by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows a 13.8-percent decline in slaughter for the first nine months of 2019. However, the year-on-year decline in slaughter clearly accelerated to 25.7 percent in August and 35.8 percent in September 2019 from a year earlier as impacts of shrinking swine numbers began to affect the supply of hogs. There are anecdotes about increased slaughter weights, but no statistics are reported.

Hogs slaughtered at "above-scale designated slaughterhouses", 2018-19
	2018	2019	Change
	Million head		Percent
Jan-Sept	180.07	155.24	-13.8
Jan	22.9	24.3	6.3
Feb	17.5	12.9	-26.1
Mar	19.2	18.6	-3.2
Apr	21.2	18.4	-13.0
May	21.4	19.2	-10.3
Jun	19.6	17.6	-10.2
Jul	19.5	17.3	-11.3
Aug	19.7	14.6	-25.7
Sep	19.2	12.3	-35.8
Oct	19.5
Nov	20.1
Dec	22.9
Source: China Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.

A broad-based rise in meat prices is evident in the National Bureau of Statistics' report on September 2019 consumer prices. China's CPI for food was up 11.2 percent from a year earlier but the nonfood CPI was up only 1 percent. Pork led the way with a 69.3-percent increase in September consumer prices from a year earlier. Beef was up 18.8 percent, mutton was up 15.9 percent, and poultry was up 14.7 percent.

China Consumer Price Index, September 2019
Item	Change from a year earlier
	Percent
Nonfood	1.0
Food	11.2
Pork	69.3
Beef	18.8
Mutton	15.9
Poultry	14.7
Fish/shellfish	2.9
Eggs	8.2
Dairy	1.1
Grains	0.6
Edible oils	2.3
Fruit	7.7
Vegetables	-11.8
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.