Tightness in China's pork supply is becoming evident in July 2019 as shrinkage of the sow herd since last fall reduces supplies of finished hogs. Statisticians from different departments reported widely varying statistics, but all point to substantial shrinkage in supplies. Agricultural officials nervous about rising pork prices have effectively declared a premature victory over the African swine fever epidemic and ordered local officials to subsidize a re-stocking of pig farms to bolster supplies.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs June report on hog and sow numbers in 400 counties showed a 25.8-percent year-on-year decline in the inventory of hogs and a 26.7-percent decline in the inventory of productive sows. The inventory of hogs and sows both fell 5 percent in June. Seven years ago the Ag Ministry stopped reporting their estimate of the actual number of swine so it would not conflict with the number reported by the National Bureau of Statistics--China's official data source--but now the percentage changes clash too.
A "semi-annual report" by the director of the National Bureau of Statistics rural office announced that the swine inventory at the end of June was down 15 percent from a year earlier (see table below for all livestock statistics reported). The Bureau estimated there were 348 million swine at the end of June 2019, down 61.4 million year-on-year.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs also tracks the number of hogs slaughtered monthly at "above scale designated slaughterhouses." The June report shows a 10.2 percent decline from a year earlier. However, adding up the slaughter totals from January-June reports shows a total of 111 million hogs slaughtered in the first six months of 2019, almost the same as last year's total for those months.
The Statistics Bureau reported that 313 million hogs were slaughtered in January-June 2019, down 6.2 percent from the same period in 2018. The Statistics Bureau's slaughter number does not count the number of animals actually arriving at slaughter facilities and is consistently threefold larger than the Ministry of Ag's number.
The Ag Ministry's July 17 news conference explained that a 4.7-percent rise in wholesale pork price during June reflects steadily-growing tightness in pork supply that has become apparent in June and July. The Ministry's chief official in charge of market information said the recent tightness reflects the 10-month biological lag after the first contractions in sow numbers began last October. He expects supplies to get tighter and upward pressure on pork prices to build in the second half of the year.
Another Ministry official claimed that African swine fever is now "under control" and that "orderly" production and sales of hogs can now return to normal. This official said the next step is to give temporary aid, subsidized loans and insurance, and access to land to breeding farms and "above-scale" hog farms in order to restore production capacity. The official also called for enforcing the "mayors' market basket responsibility" program by evaluating local officials on their ability to ensure supplies of meat, fish, vegetables, and fruit.
The Ag Ministry officials reassured the public that meat supplies would be adequate because production of other meats and eggs is increasing, the consumption structure will change rapidly, and imports of pork will increase.
The Statistics Bureau reported a decline in pork output of 1.4 million metric tons (-5.5 percent) in the first half of 2019. Output of poultry meat and eggs were up a combined 1 mmt, while beef output was up a tepid 70,000 mt year-on-year.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs June report on hog and sow numbers in 400 counties showed a 25.8-percent year-on-year decline in the inventory of hogs and a 26.7-percent decline in the inventory of productive sows. The inventory of hogs and sows both fell 5 percent in June. Seven years ago the Ag Ministry stopped reporting their estimate of the actual number of swine so it would not conflict with the number reported by the National Bureau of Statistics--China's official data source--but now the percentage changes clash too.
A "semi-annual report" by the director of the National Bureau of Statistics rural office announced that the swine inventory at the end of June was down 15 percent from a year earlier (see table below for all livestock statistics reported). The Bureau estimated there were 348 million swine at the end of June 2019, down 61.4 million year-on-year.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs also tracks the number of hogs slaughtered monthly at "above scale designated slaughterhouses." The June report shows a 10.2 percent decline from a year earlier. However, adding up the slaughter totals from January-June reports shows a total of 111 million hogs slaughtered in the first six months of 2019, almost the same as last year's total for those months.
The Statistics Bureau reported that 313 million hogs were slaughtered in January-June 2019, down 6.2 percent from the same period in 2018. The Statistics Bureau's slaughter number does not count the number of animals actually arriving at slaughter facilities and is consistently threefold larger than the Ministry of Ag's number.
The Ag Ministry's July 17 news conference explained that a 4.7-percent rise in wholesale pork price during June reflects steadily-growing tightness in pork supply that has become apparent in June and July. The Ministry's chief official in charge of market information said the recent tightness reflects the 10-month biological lag after the first contractions in sow numbers began last October. He expects supplies to get tighter and upward pressure on pork prices to build in the second half of the year.
Another Ministry official claimed that African swine fever is now "under control" and that "orderly" production and sales of hogs can now return to normal. This official said the next step is to give temporary aid, subsidized loans and insurance, and access to land to breeding farms and "above-scale" hog farms in order to restore production capacity. The official also called for enforcing the "mayors' market basket responsibility" program by evaluating local officials on their ability to ensure supplies of meat, fish, vegetables, and fruit.
The Ag Ministry officials reassured the public that meat supplies would be adequate because production of other meats and eggs is increasing, the consumption structure will change rapidly, and imports of pork will increase.
The Statistics Bureau reported a decline in pork output of 1.4 million metric tons (-5.5 percent) in the first half of 2019. Output of poultry meat and eggs were up a combined 1 mmt, while beef output was up a tepid 70,000 mt year-on-year.
| First Half 2019 livestock statistics reported | ||||
| China National Bureau of Statistics | ||||
H1 2019
|
Change
|
yoy%
|
||
| Meat production | MMT | 39.1 |
na
|
-2.1
|
| Pork | MMT | 24.7 | -1.43 | -5.5 |
| Beef | MMT | 2.9 | 0.07 | 2.4 |
| Poultry meat | MMT | 9.5 | 0.50 | 5.6 |
| Milk | MMT | 13.3 | 0.22 | 1.7 |
| Egg output | MMT | 15.2 | 0.53 | 3.6 |
| Hog slaughter | Million | 313.0 | -20.75 | -6.2 |
| Beef cattle slaughter | Million | 19.2 | 0.39 | 2.1 |
| Sheep/goat slaughter | Million | 618.5 | 30.50 | 5.2 |
| Swine inventory | Million | 348.0 | -61.43 | -15.0 |
| Poultry inventory | Million | 5872.0 | 223.00 | 4.0 |
| Cattle inventory | Million | 92.5 | 1.12 | 1.2 |
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