Brazil Overtakes U.S. as top Ag Import Supplier to China

Brazil has overtaken the United States as China's leading supplier of agricultural imports, as China's retaliatory tariffs begin to bite. Tabulations of imports in broad categories posted by China's customs administration indicate that imports of food and agricultural products from Brazil totaled $3.6 billion during September 2018, about 30% of the total. Imports from the United States were $625 million--a 5% share.

China's imports from the U.S. normally fall to a seasonal low during the summer months. The September data are the first to reveal impacts of China's tariff retaliation. China's imports of U.S. ag products during September 2018 were down $690 million from a year earlier--a much larger margin than in July (when most tariffs took effect) and August. China's imports from the U.S. normally jump during November and December as soybeans from the U.S. harvest become available. It's possible imports from the U.S. could be down year-on-year by as much as $2 billion during those months if China minimizes soybean imports from the U.S.

China's imports of ag products from Brazil were up more than $1 billion y-o-y in September. Imports from Brazil have been up from last year in 4 of the last 5 months.

Most of Brazil's dominance is in soybeans. In September, Brazil supplied 84% of China's imports in the category HS 12 (mainly soybeans, as well as other oilseeds and hay). The U.S. supplied 2.9% of imports in HS 12, while Canada supplied 4.9%, and Argentina supplied 1.8%. China's year-one-year decline in imports of U.S. soybeans was largest during January-March--before trade tensions got into full swing. The real impact of trade tensions will become evident during the next 3 months which are typically the peak season for China's purchases of U.S. soybeans.

Brazil is also China's top meat import supplier. In September Brazil supplied 28% of meat imports and the U.S. supplied just 2%. Other major suppliers were the European Union (19.7%), Australia (14.9%), Argentina and New Zealand (about 10% each). The decline in meat imports from the U.S. began in May, after the first tariff on U.S. pork was imposed.

Apart from soybeans, China's imports of U.S. grains, animal hides, fruit and nuts, dairy, meat, and cotton were down from a year ago. Imports of U.S. seafood rebounded in September.

China's imports of sorghum and corn fell to minimal volumes during September. Imports of barley have been relatively resilient. Much of the decline in grain imports reflects near elimination of imports of U.S. grain.