CASDE cut its estimate of China's 2016/17 corn crop by 3 mmt due to poor yields and lodging in some parts of China's northeastern provinces. The estimate of 212.45 mmt for 2016/17 is down from 224.58 mmt for 2015/16. Imports were revised down to 3.2 mmt for 2015/16 and 1.8 mmt for 2016.17. CASDE has revised 2015/16 imports downward each month, from 4.6 mmt in July to 3.2 mmt in October, as de-stocking of corn from government stockpiles this summer displaced imports. The estimate of imports for 2016/17 has been adjusted down from 2.4 mmt during July-August to 2 mmt in September, and 1.8 mmt this month. The estimate of corn consumption was raised by 600,000 metric tons this month.
| China corn supply and demand (Ministry of Agriculture, October 2016) | |||
| Item | Unit | 2015/16 | 2016/17 |
| Planted area | 1000 ha | 38,117 | 36,026 |
| Harvested area | 1000 ha | 38,117 | 35,990 |
| Yield | Kg/ha | 5892 | 5903 |
| Production | MMT | 224.58 | 212.45 |
| Imports | MMT | 3.2 | 1.8 |
| Consumption | MMT | 194.05 | 209.57 |
| --Food | MMT | 7.65 | 7.72 |
| --Feed | MMT | 121.01 | 133.48 |
| --Industrial use | MMT | 54.17 | 56.95 |
| --Seed | MMT | 1.66 | 1.61 |
| Loss and other | MMT | 9.56 | 9.81 |
| Exports | MMT | 0.01 | 0.50 |
| Surplus | MMT | 33.72 | 4.18 |
Soybean supply and demand estimates changed only slightly this month. The yield was revised downward 0.5% due to effects of drought in the northeast. The estimated production of 12.5 mmt for 2016/17 is still 890,000 metric tons more than last year. Crushing consumption is estimated to rise to 84 mmt, and imports are estimated at 83.5 mmt.
| China soybean supply and demand (Ministry of Agriculture, October 2016) | |||
| Item | Unit | 2015/16 | 2016/17 |
| Planted area | 1000 ha | 6,590 | 7,156 |
| Harvested area | 1000 ha | 6,590 | 7,150 |
| Yield | Kg/ha | 1,762 | 1,748 |
| Production | MMT | 11.61 | 12.50 |
| Imports | MMT | 81.42 | 83.50 |
| Consumption | MMT | 94.76 | 98.20 |
| --Crushing | MMT | 81.00 | 84.00 |
| --Food | MMT | 10.35 | 11.18 |
| --Seed | MMT | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| Loss and other | MMT | 2.87 | 2.46 |
| Exports | MMT | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| Surplus | MMT | -1.84 | -2.40 |
The gradual de-stocking of cotton continues in 2016/17. Cotton stocks peaked at 12.8 mmt at the end of 2014/15 and are estimated to fall from 11.13 mmt to 9.35 mmt during 2016/17. Production is estimated at 4.78 mmt for 2016/17, but consumption is estimated at 7.5 mmt. Imports will make up less than 1 mmt of the gap between production and consumption. Thus, CASDE says de-stocking of government reserves will be a major part of the cotton supply.
| China cotton supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, October 2016) | |||
| Item | Unit | 2015/16 | 2016/17 |
| Begin inventory | MMT | 12.8 | 11.13 |
| Planted area | 1000 ha | 33 | 31 |
| Yield | Kg/ha | 1,510 | 1,544 |
| Production | MMT | 4.93 | 4.78 |
| Imports | MMT | 0.96 | 0.97 |
| Consumption | MMT | 7.54 | 7.52 |
| Exports | MMT | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| End Inventory | MMT | 11.13 | 9.35 |
CASDE sees edible oils supply and demand relatively stable.
| China edible oils supply and demand (Ministry of Agriculture, October 2016) | |||
| Item | Unit | 2015/16 | 2016/17 |
| Production | MMT | 25.03 | 25.33 |
| --Soy oil | MMT | 14.44 | 14.88 |
| --Rapeseed oil | MMT | 5.63 | 5.37 |
| --Peanut oil | MMT | 3.01 | 3.16 |
| Imports | MMT | 5.58 | 5.4 |
| --Palm oil | MMT | 3.42 | 3.2 |
| --Rapeseed oil | MMT | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| --Soy oil | MMT | 0.65 | 0.58 |
| Consumption | MMT | 31.17 | 31.38 |
| --Urban | MMT | 20.41 | 20.55 |
| --Rural | MMT | 10.76 | 10.83 |
| Exports | MMT | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| Surplus | MMT | -0.66 | -0.77 |
Sugar reserves were drawn down by 3.16 mmt during 2015/16 and will decline a further 1.7 mmt during 2016/17. The slower decline in reserves reflects an increase in production. Consumption is forecast to decline slightly while imports remain stable.
| China sugar supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, October 2016) | |||
| Item | Unit | 2015/16 | 2016/17 |
| Planted area | 1000 ha | 1435 | 1433 |
| --sugar cane | 1000 ha | 1301 | 1270 |
| --sugar beets | 1000 ha | 134 | 163 |
| Yield | |||
| --sugar cane | MT/ha | 60.75 | 60.00 |
| --sugar beets | MT/ha | 48.00 | 48.75 |
| Sugar output | MMT | 8.7 | 9.9 |
| --sugar cane | MMT | 7.85 | 8.85 |
| --sugar beets | MMT | 0.85 | 1.05 |
| Imports | MMT | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Consumption | MMT | 15.2 | 15.1 |
| Exports | MMT | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| Surplus | MMT | -3.16 | -1.77 |
The Ministry of Agriculture anticipates a decrease in domestic corn prices to 1500-1600 yuan/metric ton, a 14-20-percent decline from the 2015/16 average. They expect international prices to rise slightly, so that domestic corn prices in production areas will be less than the price of imported corn. The Ministry expects lower prices for imported soybeans in 2016/17. A huge gap between domestic and imported soybean prices will widen to about 1300 yuan/mt.
| China prices
(Yuan/metric ton) |
2014/15 | 2015/16 | 2016/17 |
| Corn | |||
| Production region wholesale | 2266 | 1870 | 1500-1600 |
| Imported corn + duties | 1643 | 1598 | 1600-1700 |
| Soybeans | |||
| Domestic soybeans, consumption regions | 4675 | 4300 | 4350-4550 |
| Imported soybeans + duties | 3265 | 3215 | 3050-3250 |
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