Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

The price of a lean hog carcass was three times its year-earlier price in Beijing's Xinfadi wholesale market on October 29, 2019. The Xinfadi market's weekly report described the nationwide competition for carcasses that is driving the price upward at an accelerated pace this month. A daily average of 1,450 swine carcasses arrived in the Xinfadi market during the week of Oct. 19-25. The daily supply was up from its low point during the National Day holiday week early in the month, but it was 33 percent less than the 2,350 carcasses supplied daily during the same week in 2018. According to a monthly report for September , the number of carcasses arriving at Xinfadi during July was the largest in 5 years, but tight supplies resulted in a noticeable decline in carcasses arriving during August and September. According to the reports, Beijing's market competes for carcasses transported all over the country. Most of the carcasses in the Beijing market come from the...

China's food security strategy insists on self-sufficiency, yet China also claims to advocate liberalized global food trade, according to a white paper on China's food security released October 14, 2019. The paper recites vague phrases like "keeping Chinese peoples' food bowls tightly in their own hands," a mantra that has been repeated as in speeches and communist party documents since Xi Jinping's ascension to party chief in 2013. The Chinese version of the white paper has an emphasis on self-reliance that is largely scrubbed out of the English translation. The Chinese version advocates a "path to food security with Chinese characteristics" ( 中国特色粮食安全之路 ) that is translated as "food security in China" in the English version. The food security policy is stated in a series of opaque phrases that call for China to remain self-sufficient in grain most of the time by ensuring domestic production capacity while allowing for undefined ...

China's pork output is down 17 percent in Q1-Q3 2019, but the decline accelerated to 42 percent during the third quarter, according to data released by the country's National Bureau of Statistics. September consumer price data show an increase in all meat prices, led by a 69-percent increase in pork costs. The Bureau's economic report on the third quarter of 2019 included estimates of meat output for the first three quarters of 2019 and percentage changes from a year earlier. The country produced 31.8 million metric tons of pork in the first three quarters of 2019, down 17.2 percent from the same period in 2018. Poultry output was 15.39 mmt, up 10.2 percent. Beef and mutton output were a combined 7.9 mmt and rose at a slower pace of 2-to-3 percent. Egg output increased 5.5 percent. The Bureau did not report any animal inventories or number of animals slaughtered. China Livestock Production, Q1-Q3, 2019 Item Q1-Q3 output Change from year earlier...

Beijing pork prices shot upward again in October after officials pulled out all the stops to stabilize them ahead of the Oct. 1 National Day holiday. A comparison with Beijing market prices from the "blue ear" disease panic in 2007 shows that the African swine fever epidemic is the biggest-ever disruption of the world's biggest pork market. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs figures showed a worsening supply situation. The Ministry reported that the inventory of swine during September was down 41.1 percent from a year earlier while the sow inventory was down 38.9 percent. The Ministry's figures tracking "above-scale" slaughter facilities showed the number of hogs slaughtered in September was down 35.8 percent from a year earlier. Daily price data from Beijing's Xinfadi wholesale market show that pork prices stabilized in September following an August 30 order from Vice Premier Hu Chunhua to keep pork markets stable during the Mid-Autumn Fes...

China's minimum price for wheat will remain steady at 2240 yuan/metric ton in 2020, but a new 37-million-metric-ton limit on purchases at the minimum price will be introduced. The limit on wheat purchases will be divided up into two batches, according to an announcement issued by the Administration of Grain and Commodity Reserves and four other departments. A basic purchase limit will be set at 33.3 mmt. If purchases reach 90 percent of the initial limit, provincial branches of Sinograin--the government's grain reserve company--can make recommendations for allocating an additional 3.7 mmt to provinces. The Administration of Grain and Commodity Reserves will make a determination based on monitoring of production, market prices, volume of farmers' unsold grain and other factors. If needed, the Administration will post the allocations of the second batch of reserve purchases on a web site. Wheat purchases at the minimum price were 30.9 mmt during 2019. Purchases were muc...

Investment in China's farming and agricultural processing sectors is down this year, according to figures released by China's National Bureau of Statistics , a development at odds with policies focused on pumping up investment in the sector. Fixed asset investment in farming, forestry and fishing during January-August 2019 was down 3 percent from the year-earlier period. Investment in primary processing of agricultural products (grain milling, oilseed processing, livestock slaughter, etc.) was down 9.4 percent from a year earlier, investment in food manufacturing was down 2.2 percent, and investment in textile manufacturing was down 5 percent. The data do not include rural households, but this has little impact since other data show that rural households don't make many agricultural investments. China fixed asset investment, January-August, 2019: year-year change Sector Percent change Farming, forestry, fishing -3.0 Primary processin...

China's crayfish production has skyrocketed as local officials around the country rolled out production plans and subsidies to grow the crustaceans in rice paddies. While consumption is booming too, farmers drive the price to seasonal lows when most harvest their crawdads at the same time in June.  The " Voice of Rural China " radio broadcast said 80 percent of new crayfish farmers are losing money and need to think more carefully about the business. China's crayfish output nearly doubled in two years, according to a Ministry of Agriculture report on crayfish industry development released a few months ago. Production reached nearly 1.64 million metric tons in 2018, up 45 percent from the previous year. This came on top of a 32.5-percent increase in 2017. After some farmers "expanded blindly," the industry is now due for a shakeout, Voice of Rural China said. Source: China Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Crayfish Industry Development Report ...