Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China

China's Commerce Ministry refused to confirm that China committed to U.S. soybean purchases at the October 30 Trump-Xi meeting. Reading the tea leaves, it looks like China is in a passive-aggressive state over bilateral trade with the U.S. and has no intention of fulfilling this commitment--if it was ever made. At a November 13 press conference an unidentified "media reporter" asked whether the Ministry of Commerce could confirm the White House's claim that China committed to purchase 12 million metric tons of soybeans this year and 25 million metric tons in the following 3 years. Spokesperson He Yadong gave no direct confirmation, but he didn't deny it either.  He responded with a word salad stating that "the Ministry of Commerce had recently released information regarding the joint arrangements for the China-US Kuala Lumpur trade consultations, outlining the main achievements and consensus reached, including on agricultural trade." He followed up with...

Chicago soybean prices keep rising based on expectations of renewed Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans. Yet, nearly 2 weeks after Xi and Trump met in Korea China seems to be dragging its feet in buying U.S. soybeans.  China has imported a cumulative 95.7 mmt of soybeans for January-October 2025, up 6.4 mmt from the same period in 2024. Imports from the U.S.in the first 10 months of 2025 are only 16.8 mmt.  According to the White House, China committed to buy 12 million metric tons (mmt) of soybeans by the end of 2025, an amount that will be hard to achieve with less than 2 months left in the year. China also reportedly committed to buy at least 25 mmt annually during 2026-28. Beijing consultancy Boyar observed last week that China has not confirmed these figures, and traders are still closely watching for signs of large-scale purchases.  On November 3 China waived punitive tariffs on U.S. agricultural products that had been imposed at the height of the trade war in March...

China's Security Ministry warned today  that grain-producing areas are a "hotbed of espionage" where rampant collection of Chinese seeds by foreign spies threatens China's national food security. The warning posted on numerous Chinese sites effectively puts the kibosh on independent on-the-ground gathering of agricultural market intelligence in China. The article ( English summary in Global Times ) warned against an increase in foreign espionage and intelligence agencies'--"black hands of foreign powers"--infiltration of grain-producing regions to obtain genetic data by illegally collecting soybean, corn, and rice seeds. The article cites "a certain foreign intelligence agency" that "coveted the country's grain data and germplasm resources" and bribed an individual named Zhu to export seeds in falsely declared shipping containers. Later in the article the focus narrows to rice seeds. Foreign "black hands" infiltrating Ch...

Most commentary leading up to today's Trump-Xi meeting seems to ascertain that China doesn't need U.S. soybeans. Beneath the surface, though, Chinese soybean buyers are showing signs of angst as they pile up financial losses and look longingly at U.S. soybeans that are substantially cheaper than the Brazilian beans that have comprised 80-to-90% of their supplies since May. Cracks are appearing in the seemingly cozy China-Brazil soybean relationship as Chinese buyers try to scarf up as many beans as possible from the shrinking Brazilian supply. China purchased 180,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans  this week -- probably meant as a show of good will ahead of today's inconclusive Trump-Xi meeting. The only signal to markets from the meeting itself was President Trump's vague assurance that Xi has authorized  "massive" Chinese purchases of American soybeans .  Chinese crushing plants have been processing about 9-to-10 million metric tons of soybeans monthly since r...

A country with a bad food safety record aspires to lead a new approach to setting food safety practices in international trade. This is part of China's plan to leverage its Belt & Road Initiative in order to boost its influence in setting international rules, standards, and inspection practices. So far, it's off to a slow start. On October 15, China's customs administration held a meeting  of its 2-year-old "Import & Export Food Safety Cooperation Mechanism for the Countries of the Belt and Road Initiative" in Shanghai with participants from food agencies and embassies of 21 Belt and Road countries.  Director General of the Customs Administration Sun Meijun stated that China's customs administration is willing to work with food safety authorities of all countries to collaborate on food safety regulation and promote safer and more efficient trade in food and agricultural products. At the meeting member countries affirmed the "Shanghai Declaration o...

U.S. soybean exports to non-China destinations have increased 45% year-over-year in the first 7 weeks of the 2025/26 marketing year. But that growth made only a slight dent in offsetting the lost demand from China's boycott of U.S. beans. Analysis of USDA export inspection data for September through October 16--the first 7 weeks of the 2025/26 market year--shows that exports are overall down -2.5 million metric tons from the same period in 2024. Sifting through the USDA database shows that exports to China during this period last year were 4.2 mmt versus 0 this year. Exports to non-China destinations were 3.8 mmt in the first 7 weeks of MY2024/25, but they increased to 5.5 mmt so far in 2025/26. That's a year-on-year increase of 1.7 mmt, or 45%, but plugs less than half of the 4.2-mmt hole left by China's snub of U.S. beans.  Most of the top overseas markets for U.S. soybeans have increased their purchases. The U.S. has exported soybeans to 34 destinations so far in MY 2025...

It's confirmed that Brazilian beans continued to almost single-handedly sustain China's soybean supply during September 2025--and actually increased supplies from the previous month. However, China probably cannot sustain its supplies year-round without importing U.S. soybeans. The Brazilian beans arriving in September represent the end of Brazil's peak shipping season. Brazilian shipments to China began to drop in August and September, which probably means Chinese supplies will begin to shrink in October and November. While Brazil is expected to have another monster harvest beginning in January, the new Brazilian beans probably won't clear Chinese customs until April. As reported last week, China's September 2025 soybean imports increased by 592,000 metric tons from the previous month to reach 12.87 million metric tons (mmt). Detailed customs data confirm that China's imports of Brazilian soybeans increased by 476,000 mt in September, accounting for most of the...