African ag ministers discuss China ag collaboration

China's agriculture minister met with African counterparts to jumpstart promises of agricultural aid made at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation held in Beijing last week. While 50 African nations attended the Forum where agriculture was a featured item, China's Minister of Agriculture Han Jun met with only 5 agriculture and fisheries ministers. One agreement was signed and one was discussed.

"Accelerating agricultural modernization in Africa" was chapter 6 of The Beijing Action Plan (2025-2027) released by China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs at the Forum, encompassing about 4 of the Plan's 70 pages. It includes sections on science and technology, poverty reduction and rural development, and food aid. 

The document calls for achieving "agricultural modernization" in Africa. China has been pursuing agricultural modernization since the 1950s and still hasn't achieved it (judging from many Chinese documents that still call for pursing agricultural modernization). China promises to send its companies to produce fertilizer, pesticides, and small agricultural machinery to help Africa pursue "import substitution." The document includes many of the same items featured in Chinese agricultural policy documents such as raising productivity, reducing costs, building agro-eco-tourism parks, improving soil health, water-saving irrigation, reducing food loss, e-commerce, development of geographic indicators, and prevention and reduction of natural disasters. 

China pledged to build remote sensing centers, earth science laboratories and meteorological stations in Africa (at least one recent Chinese document included an aspiration to develop its own systems for remote sensing and other agricultural monitoring data). China plans to help Africa with rice value chains and new varieties of cassava (China is the world's leading importer of both rice and cassava, but China doesn't import either commodity from Africa).

The document affirmed the goal of African agricultural exports to China reaching $20 billion by 2030 (set at a forum last year). Least Developed Countries will have tariffs cut to zero; China pledges collaboration between African free trade zones and Chinese tariff-free zones; and will cooperate on agricultural product inspection and quarantine. China will encourage new foreign direct investment in Africa's agricultural sector.

China promised initiatives for safe drinking water and health of rural women and children in Africa. Africans should be aware that no drinking water in China is safe and should read the book Invisible China which finds poor nutritional and educational status for rural children in China.

On September 3--before the big meeting--Chinese Minister of Agriculture Han Jun met with agriculture ministers of Burundi, South Africa, Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, and the Fisheries Minister of Sierra Leone to promise aid and cooperation. Few specifics were reported by China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, but areas of cooperation broadly corresponded to those included in the Action Plan. 

China promised to send more foreign experts to Burundi and promised collaboration between Chinese and Burundi companies on seed production, agricultural machinery assembly and maintenance, and agricultural product processing. The Chinese and Burundi ministers signed a memorandum of understanding on agricultural cooperation. 

Democratic Republic of Congo's minister was eager to conclude a memorandum of understanding on agricultural cooperation with China asap. He hopes China's assistance can improve yields of corn, rice and other grains and boost industries with local features. 

In his meeting with the Ugandan minister China's ag minister promised to follow up on pledges of agricultural cooperation made by top leaders of the two countries. The Ugandan minister highlighted agricultural research and training exchanges as a priority. 

China and South Africa will pursue capacity building, animal disease prevention and control, poverty reduction, and support scientific research institutions. The South African minister was receptive to more practical cooperation in agriculture.

Sierra Leone's minister of fisheries pronounced her country's cooperation on fisheries with China as having a "good foundation" in her meeting with Han Jun. This may have been an awkward meeting since news media have reported complaints of overfishing and invasion of Sierra Leone's territorial waters by Chinese fishing trawlers. Even Sierra Leone's president has made this issue a priority. Sierra Leone's minister nevertheless thanked the Chinese government for its assistance in fishery construction and welcomed more Chinese companies to invest in Sierra Leone. The report of the meeting did not include any comments from China's minister.

Lower prices for China's harvest in 2024

With Chinese farm prices down 10-to-18 percent from a year ago, the upcoming fall harvest looks set to deal a painful blow Chinese farmers' earnings. 

Weekly prices from China's National Grain and Commodity Reserves Administration show the late-August 2024 procurement price for corn at RMB 2306 per metric ton, down 18 percent from a year ago. The collapse of Chinese corn prices occurred during last year's peak marketing season, from September 2023 to February 2024. Corn prices weakened again last month as the new corn procurement season approaches, suggesting that growers of China's largest crop may get hammered when they sell their grain this fall. 

Compiled from China National Grain and Commodity Reserves Administration.

Chinese soybean prices are down for the second year in a row. The average domestic soybean procurement price was RMB 4649 per metric ton at the end of August, down about 10 percent from a year ago. Chinese soybean prices fell during the last two marketing seasons. This year's August price is 23 percent below the peak in 2021/22.

Compiled from China National Grain and Commodity Reserves Administration.

The wheat marketing season is winding down. Chinese wheat prices have been on a 4-month slide since the 2024/25 marketing season began in May. The average August 2024 wheat price of RMB 2463 per metric ton is down 14 percent from a year ago. Chinese wheat prices are down 24 percent from their peak in December 2022. 

Compiled from China National Grain and Commodity Reserves Administration.

Chinese rapeseed is also in the midst of its marketing season. Rapeseed prices averaged RMB 5960 per metric ton in August, down 9 percent from a year ago. Rapeseed prices began their decline in April-June 2023, fell again this past spring, and August 2024 prices are down 12 percent from their peak two years ago. 

Compiled from China National Grain and Commodity Reserves Administration.

Declining prices and revenues could mean that many farmers do not cover their costs this year. China's official cost and returns survey shows that corn was profitable in 2021 and 2022. However, the decline in prices this year likely will fall below production cost for corn. 

Compiled from China National Development and Reform Commission
agricultural product cost and returns data.

Chinese officials are likely quite nervous. City people are already growing impatient with the collapse of the property sector, economic mismanagement, unemployment, and the zero-covid debacle. The prospect of disgruntled farmers and rural uprisings could bring the situation to the boiling point. 

Moreover, Chinese officials worry that losses on this year's crops could prompt farmers to abandon fields, threatening national food security. Their soybean and rapeseed recovery plan has led to plummeting prices for both oilseeds.  

Officials are likely to clamp down on wheat and corn quotas to limit imports in the hope of goosing prices upward. Low rapeseed prices surely were a partial motivation for China's announcement this week of an antidumping probe of Canadian canola. Watch for new antidumping probes and discoveries of contaminants and phantom GMOs, or substandard imports as officials try to boost prices for the upcoming harvest.